Weโve put together our Scout Picks for Matchday 5 of Euro 2024 Fantasy, aka the quarter-finals of the tournament.
This is essentially a โFree Hitโ XV for Matchday 5 only, with no thought given to later rounds.
We get an increased budget of โฌ105m and can also select five players from one nation.
GOALKEEPERS + DEFENDERS
Weโve had at least five clean sheets, and an average of 6.5, in every Matchday so far.
Now, though, itโs the business end of the tournament. The match-ups are closer to call. Even the bookmakersโ favourites for shutouts in Matchday 5, the Netherlands and England, are up against the joint-third highest-scoring teams of the tournament.
Thatโs why weโve gone for five defenders who are capable of producing tidy returns even if the clean sheets fall.
Antonio Rudiger (โฌ5.5m), Pepe (โฌ5.0m) and Manuel Akanji (โฌ5.0m) in particular are ball recovery machines. They play for the perceived underdogs in their respective quarter-final ties, although thereโs precious little in it (especially Spain v Germany) and you would not be surprised if all three of their countries progressed.
| Ball recoveries | Ball recovery points | |
| Rudiger | 33 | 10 |
| Pepe | 30 | 9 |
| Akanji | 29 | 9 |
Jules Kounde (โฌ5.0m) and Virgil van Dijk (โฌ6.0m) are not far behind the trio above, on 25 and 23 ball recoveries respectively.
Kounde is also the leading defender for chances created at the European Championship, while van Dijk is unbeaten among players in his Fantasy position for shots in the box. Turkey, who the Dutch face next, allowed eight headed chances in their win over Austria. That was over half of their overall total for attempts conceded.
Which brings us to our two goalkeepers, Jordan Pickford (โฌ5.0m) and Unai Simon (โฌ5.5m).
England and Spain are the joint-best sides for fewest big chances conceded, not that hopes are particularly high for shut-outs from either side.
They do, at least, play on alternative days, so should Simon flop then Pickford comes in.
The absence of Marc Guehiย (โฌ4.6m), who is even ahead of Rudiger for ball recoveries, made it easier to go with the England goalkeeper.
MIDFIELDERS
The midfield selection was tricky this week. You would not be surprised if defensive midfielders come to the fore in scrappier, high-stakes affairs, with the likes of NโGolo Kanteย (โฌ6.0m) and Rodri ย (โฌ6.5m) adding to their Player of the Match collections.
Ultimately, though, most of those midfield anchors donโt recover balls at the same rate as the defenders behind them. Kante and Rodri, for instance, have less than a third of the recovery points that Rudiger has amassed.
Itโs for that reason that weโll continue to throw our lot in with more attacking assets for Matchday 5.
Jude Bellingham (โฌ9.5m) is one of them, albeit playing for an England side with the handbrake on. Heโs had just three shots all tournament, indeed, so heโs been fortunate to score twice. But there are suggestions that Gareth Southgate is to rip up the playbook for this one, opting for a wing-back system against the Swiss. Bellingham is expected to retain his number 10 role within that. The Player of the Match committee love him. So does Southgate, who has given Bellingham at least 86 minutes in every match so far. Those game-time guarantees are another string to his bow.
Xavi Simons (โฌ7.0m) is more of a gamble. But he comes into the match against Turkiye off the back of his best display of the summer. Two shots, three chances created and seven penalty box touches arrived from the โ10โ role against Romania, where he looked more effective than he did on the right flank prior to that.
Turkiye are the only quarter-finalists without a clean sheet to their name. They also have conceded, by some distance, the highest number of big chances and expected goals. Itโs for that reason why weโre willing to punt on Simons.
Spain are the best attacking side of the tournament so far. Most shots, big chances, highest xG. Germany will be their toughest test yet but based on what we saw against Italy and Croatia, Luis de la Fuente wonโt be compromising on those principles.
The issue is always minutes with Spain, as de la Fuente has a predilection for using his squad and making early-ish substitutions. But Fabian Ruiz (โฌ6.5m) and Neco Williams (โฌ7.0m) were sensationally good against Georgia. The pair delivered a combined 12 shots and six chances created, both hauling in a 4-1 win. They wonโt get the same space as they did in the last 16 but even against Italy, they joined forces for five goal attempts and seven chances created.
The fifth midfield slot was the one we chewed on more than any other. Arda Guler (โฌ5.9m) was in the mix, as were Granit Xhaka (โฌ6.0m), Ruben Vargas (โฌ6.0m) and Declan Rice (โฌ6.5m). Thereโs always Germanyโs array of options, too, but weโve included a forward from the hosts instead.
Ultimately we went with representation from the Portugal attack, having overlooked the veteran greedy guts up front. And might CR7โs penalty miss see Bruno Fernandes (โฌ9.0m) get a look-in from the spot? The Portuguese playmaker is another 90-minute man who wonโt be taken off by his manager. Heโs capable of collecting ball recoveries when he drops deep, too, as well as being the creative central hub.
FORWARDS
Kai Havertz (โฌ7.5m) and Kylian Mbappe (โฌ11.0m) havenโt scored from open play yet.
But both are on penalty-taking duties for their respective countries. They are also racking up the chances. Only the similarly profligate Cristiano Ronaldo (โฌ10.0m) has had more shots than these two (15 apiece). No one has had more shots in the box (13 each). Madness to expect a different outcome and the goals to finally flow? Or keep faith in those good old underlying numbers? The absence of too many form forwards elsewhere makes it a slightly easier decision.
Cody Gakpo (โฌ7.5m) is one of those. One of just two forwards to hit double figures for both chances created and shots, the joint-top goal scorer of Euro 2024 is captaincy material on Saturday.
SCOUT PICKS TEAM CAPTAINCY SCHEDULE
- Friday 5 July: Williams
- Saturday 6 July: Gakpo
MATCHDAY 5: SCOUT PICKS
