FPL notes: Keane a sub, £4.0m Fabianski delivers, Ait-Nouri 'OOP'

Price Change Predictions

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Haaland	MCI	A, Vs
Up	Thiago	BRE	A
Down	Mateta	CRY	C
No Change	Welbeck	BHA	C, Rest
No Change	Woltemade	NEW	B

Risers

Fallers

Player	Team	Price	Progress	Tonight
Bruno G.	NEW	6.8m	34.9%	Likely
Guéhi	CRY	5.1m	91.5%	Likely
Raya	ARS	5.9m	93.1%	Likely
J.Timber	ARS	6.4m	95.9%	Likely
Casemiro	MUN	5.5m	98.7%	Likely
Thiago	BRE	6.8m	25.7%	Maybe
Neto	CHE	7.2m	76.7%	Unlikely
Roefs	SUN	4.7m	85.7%	Unlikely
Truffert	BOU	4.5m	88.2%	Unlikely
Mitchell	CRY	5.0m	83.9%	Unlikely
Cullen	BUR	5.0m	83.8%	Unlikely
Matheus N.	MCI	5.3m	76.9%	Unlikely
Tavernier	BOU	5.5m	82.3%	Unlikely
Petrović	BOU	4.5m	79.4%	Unlikely
Szoboszlai	LIV	6.6m	79.6%	Unlikely
J.Palhinha	TOT	5.5m	76.1%	Unlikely
Saka	ARS	10.1m	66.5%	Unlikely
Gvardiol	MCI	5.8m	69.8%	Unlikely
Woltemade	NEW	7.5m	1.6%	Unlikely
Dúbravka	BUR	4.0m	71.3%	Unlikely
Burn	NEW	5.1m	51.7%	Unlikely
Amad	MUN	6.3m	65.3%	Unlikely
Sánchez	CHE	4.8m	62.6%	Unlikely
King	FUL	4.5m	62.0%	Unlikely
Rogers	AVL	6.9m	71.1%	Unlikely
Lacroix	CRY	5.1m	53.8%	Unlikely
De Ligt	MUN	5.0m	66.6%	Unlikely
O.Dango	BRE	6.0m	57.5%	Unlikely
Livramento	NEW	4.9m	47.9%	Unlikely
Verbruggen	BHA	4.4m	48.1%	Unlikely
Barnes	NEW	6.4m	46.5%	Unlikely
Ballard	SUN	4.6m	55.6%	Unlikely
Muñoz	CRY	6.1m	17.0%	Unlikely
Merino	ARS	6.0m	14.5%	Unlikely
Schade	BRE	7.0m	53.6%	Unlikely
Chalobah	CHE	5.2m	48.8%	Unlikely
Donnarumma	MCI	5.7m	51.6%	Unlikely
Sessegnon	FUL	5.4m	48.0%	Unlikely
Gusto	CHE	4.9m	45.6%	Unlikely
Anderson	NFO	5.4m	44.2%	Unlikely

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Player	Team	Price	Progress	Tonight
Georginio	BHA	5.7m	91.4%	Likely
Semenyo	BOU	7.7m	46.4%	Likely
Vicario	TOT	5.0m	96.9%	Likely
Coppola	BHA	4.3m	96.0%	Likely
Boateng	BUR	4.8m	91.2%	Likely
Kerkez	LIV	5.7m	94.3%	Maybe
Maguire	MUN	4.4m	94.4%	Maybe
Tel	TOT	6.3m	95.6%	Maybe
Dixon	EVE	3.9m	95.1%	Maybe
Okafor	LEE	5.5m	94.4%	Unlikely
Welch	EVE	3.9m	92.6%	Unlikely
Mainoo	MUN	4.7m	92.2%	Unlikely
Ortega Moreno	MCI	4.8m	91.4%	Unlikely
João Pedro	CHE	7.4m	73.9%	Unlikely
Travers	EVE	4.4m	90.8%	Unlikely
Pinnock	BRE	4.3m	95.0%	Unlikely
Darlow	LEE	4.0m	88.4%	Unlikely
Kelleher	BRE	4.5m	88.7%	Unlikely
M.Salah	LIV	14.1m	74.6%	Unlikely
Mac Allister	LIV	6.3m	85.8%	Unlikely
Cox	BRE	4.0m	84.5%	Unlikely
Arrizabalaga	ARS	4.2m	86.0%	Unlikely
Matete	SUN	4.4m	83.3%	Unlikely
Akinmboni	BOU	3.9m	82.8%	Unlikely
Baleba	BHA	4.7m	84.1%	Unlikely
McGill	BHA	4.0m	84.1%	Unlikely
Sonne	BUR	3.9m	82.4%	Unlikely
Byram	LEE	3.9m	79.2%	Unlikely
Christie	BOU	5.0m	82.6%	Unlikely
Knight	BHA	4.5m	84.8%	Unlikely
George	CHE	4.9m	91.3%	Unlikely
Toti	WOL	4.3m	55.9%	Unlikely
Young	AVL	4.4m	82.9%	Unlikely
Gannon-Doak	BOU	4.9m	82.0%	Unlikely
Gabriel	ARS	6.3m	71.4%	Unlikely
Tonali	NEW	5.4m	72.4%	Unlikely
Neave	NEW	4.4m	84.0%	Unlikely
Obi	MUN	4.3m	80.2%	Unlikely
Abbott	NFO	3.9m	84.4%	Unlikely
Colwill	CHE	4.8m	83.2%	Unlikely

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FPL Fixture Ticker

Watchlists

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Raya Martin	ARS	C
No Change	Alisson	LIV	C, Vs
No Change	Donnarumma	MCI	C, Vs, Sus
No Change	Ramsdale	NEW	C
No Change	Sels	NFO	B
No Change	Dubravka	BUR	C, £

Last updated: 6 Dec, 2025 12:36am

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	van Dijk	LIV	B, Vs
No Change	Muñoz	CRY	A, Sus
No Change	Jurriën Timber	ARS	C
No Change	O’Reilly	MCI	B, Vs
No Change	de Ligt	MUN	B, Inj
No Change	Thiaw	NEW	A
No Change	Andersen	FUL	B
No Change	Milenkovic	NFO	B
No Change	van Hecke	BHA	A, £
No Change	Mukiele	SUN	C, £

Last updated: 6 Dec, 2025 12:41am

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Saka	ARS	A
No Change	Bruno Fernandes	MUN	B
No Change	Foden	MCI	A, Vs
No Change	Semenyo	BOU	C
No Change	Gakpo	LIV	B, Vs, Rest
No Change	Minteh	BHA	B
No Change	Bruno Guimarães	NEW	A
Up	Schade	BRE	C
No Change	Anderson	NFO	A, £
Down	Fernández	CHE	B

Last updated: 6 Dec, 2025 12:48am

	Player	Club	Factors
No Change	Haaland	MCI	A, Vs
Up	Thiago	BRE	A
Down	Mateta	CRY	C
No Change	Welbeck	BHA	C, Rest
No Change	Woltemade	NEW	B

The Gameweek 11 post-mortem continues with two more of Saturday’s matches: West Ham United 0-0 Everton and Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-0 Southampton.

READ MORE: FPL notes: Alexander-Arnold injury + Salah’s upcoming rest
READ MORE: FPL Gameweek 11 round-up: Saturday’s goals, assists, bonus points + stats

BRANTHWAITE IN, KEANE OUT

It was always going to be matter of when and not if – and the ‘when’ was Saturday.

Michael Keane (£4.3m), whose ownership (11.3%) and price has risen significantly in recent weeks, was finally benched as the fit-again Jarrad Branthwaite (£4.8m) resumed his partnership with James Tarkowski (£4.8m).

Sean Dyche might have made the change a week or two earlier were it not for Keane’s decent displays and Everton’s recent defensive improvement. The temptation was too hard to resist after defeat to Southampton, however, and Keane was back amongst the substitutes in Gameweek 11. He’ll likely stay there for good barring any further injury.

“I thought there was a lot of good work on transition today to make sure we looked after ourselves and kept a clean sheet, not just the back five, which was part of my thinking with Jarrad coming back in because Keano has done well, but that back five mostly kept a lot of clean sheets [last season] and it did do again today.” – Sean Dyche

ANOTHER CLEAN SHEET FOR THE TOFFEES

There are some obvious parallels with last season regarding Everton’s defence. More rickety than usual in the first six Gameweeks of 2023/24, ‘Dyche mode’ was then activated. Only Arsenal kept more clean sheets than the Toffees (13) last season.

	Clean sheets in Gameweeks 1-6	Clean sheets in Gameweeks 7-11	Final clean sheet total
2023/24	0	2	13
2024/25	0	3	?

We’ve witnessed a similar thing in this campaign, with the expected goals conceded (xGC) tally settling down as it did a year ago.

Above: Everton’s six-game rolling xGC average from the start of 2023/24 onwards

While Jordan Pickford (£4.9m) did produce a superb injury-time stop to keep out a deflected Danny Ings (£5.0m) shot, and Crysencio Summerville (£5.7m) struck the upright, Everton did mostly restrict the Hammers to efforts from wider areas/longer range:

Above: West Ham’s shotmap in Gameweek 11

Defensive improvements or not, the Toffees are surely a team to avoid from Gameweeks 15-23 when they exclusively face teams currently in the top 11.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.8m) kept his place on Saturday but once again left empty-handed; he had a game-high four shots to no avail. There were no glaring sitters, at least, while he should have bagged an assist when Jesper Lindstrom (£5.1m) nodded wide.

Dwight McNeil (£5.7m) meanwhile missed out with his niggly knee issue. There wasn’t much of an update on him, save for general team news optimism from Dyche.

“This [international break] hopefully now will give them a chance to get fit again and good getting bodies back fit.” – Sean Dyche

FABIANSKI STARTS AGAIN

Whether Everton fans or pundits like Dyche’s approach or not (many don’t), at least there is some semblance of a style and a plan. You’d be hard pressed to suss out Julen Lopetegui’s methology, however.

A possession-based approach seems to be the loose idea. The Hammers’ average possession figure in a game has crept up from 40.1% in 2023/24 to 45.4% this season.

It hasn’t really translated into chances, though. The xG has stayed the same as it was under David Moyes, who was maligned for his dour tactics.

Summerville was the brightest spark against Everton, outshining even Jarrod Bowen (£7.5m). The fact that Lopetegui seems almost reluctant to use Summerville (this was the first time he’d gone beyond 53 minutes since his transfer) only adds to the West Ham manager’s rap sheet.

Bowen, incidentally, hasn’t managed over 0.30 for non-penalty xG in a single fixture under Lopetegui.

If we’re clutching at positives, West Ham haven’t lost to anyone lower than ninth so far this season. Flat-track bullying, or at least being competitive, is always good for fixture frisking.

And the Hammers can offer us the only playing £4.0m goalkeeper this season. Lukasz Fabianski (£4.0m) got his third straight start, even keeping a clean sheet and collecting save/bonus points. Alphonse Areola (£4.4m) was absent again but Fabianski had kept his positional rival out of the team anyway before Areola’s recent lay-off.

While reservations persist about Fabianski’s distribution in a possesion-based team, he was at least solid again with his hands.

AIT-NOURI ‘OOP’

Rayan Ait-Nouri (£4.7m) was technically ‘out of position’ (OOP) on Saturday as Gary O’Neil switched to a back four and the Algerian was stationed on the left wing of a 4-2-3-1.

Practically, of course, there wasn’t a huge difference, as he was as gung-ho as they come from wing-back anyway.

But it was reassurance for Ait-Nouri’s owners that, if O’Neil is to proceed with a back four, the attack-minded defender still has an advanced role.

The Algeria international was a Jeanricner Bellegarde (£5.0m) toe away from an assist but at least a first clean sheet of 2024/25 arrived.

This match was low on quality.

Operation ‘Give it to Matheus Cunha (£6.7m)’ paid dividends for the hosts. His driving run and pass set up Pablo Sarabia (£5.1m) before the Brazilian himself superbly netted from 25 yards. Cunha was a cut above anyone else on the field, and effectively the difference between two unexceptional sides. A goal and an assist was befitting of his all-round appeal: he’s joint-second among FPL forwards for shots and top for chances created.

Southampton bossed possession, as they always do. They failed to do much with it, however, as is also often the case.

Wolves meanwhile were unremarkable. For once, VAR helped Gary O’Neil’s side. Cunha’s goal could easily have been ruled out for a foul in the build-up. A Southampton equaliser was chalked off for just that, contentiously.