Whether Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers are ditching Erling Haaland (£15.2m) for a heavy midfield, ruthlessly moving on Chris Wood (£6.6m) or finally giving up on Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.8m), it’s hard to ignore Brighton and Hove Albion’s strong upcoming fixtures when searching for a new forward.
Therefore, Gameweek 11’s comeback cameo haul from Joao Pedro (£5.4m) was well-timed. Without a start since the third week due to an international knock, then a bigger ankle problem, he came off the bench to equalise against Manchester City and set up Matt O’Riley‘s (£5.5m) winner. An 11-point haul from 32 minutes.
So how does he compare to team-mate Danny Welbeck (£5.9m) – FPL’s third-best forward so far? Let’s look at the main factors.
STATS
| Starts (sub) | Minutes | Goals | Assists | Bonus | FPL points | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Welbeck | 11 (0) | 920 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 64 |
| Joao Pedro | 3 (2) | 313 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 30 |
While Joao Pedro has struggled to stay fit, Welbeck has been a nailed-on starter for the Seagulls. The latter is currently joint-eighth throughout the league for attempts (33) and joint-seventh for shots on target (12).
However, a fuller story emerges when looking at key performance indicators (KPI), levelling out their huge difference in playing time.
| Mins per goal | Mins per shot | Mins per shot on target | Mins per big chance | Mins per chance created | Mins per xG | Mins per xGI | Mins per FPL pt | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Welbeck | 153.33 | 29.68 | 76.67 | 115.00 | 92.00 | 180.75 | 169.12 | 14.38 |
| Joao Pedro | 104.33 | 39.13 | 78.25 | 78.25 | 78.25 | 230.15 | 158.08 | 10.43 |
Here, the Brazilian has a better rate of goals, big chances and FPL points but Welbeck is more frequent with shots and expected goals (xG).
Neither player has taken a penalty this season.
It’s worth mentioning that we’re dealing with a small sample for Pedro, who has only made five appearances – two off the bench.
POSITIONING
Perhaps a more interesting comparison looks at who is best when they’re playing together. The first 77, 78 and 81 minutes of Gameweeks 1, 2 and 3, plus Joao Pedro’s short appearances in Gameweeks 5 and 11 add up to a total of 292 minutes.
| Goals | Attempts | Shots in box | Shots on target | xG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Welbeck | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1.28 |
| Joao Pedro | 2 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1.19 |
Although Joao Pedro took the plaudits during Saturday’s shared pitch time, their contributions are fairly even. Thanks to Statsbomb, we have a visual layout of these 292 minutes.
