Zophar hosts his weekly Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Q&A ahead of Gameweek 28. The eight-time top 10k finisher considers the Mohamed Salah (£13.8m) v Cole Palmer (£11.1m) captain question, discusses the merits of an early Bench Boost and picks out some replacements for injured Fantasy assets.
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Q: With a chance of reduced minutes for Mohamed Salah, or at the very least a weakened Liverpool side, is a Cole Palmer captain worth a punt (again)?
(via F4L)
A: The 0-1 scoreline against Paris Saint-Germain in the first leg flattered Liverpool and the Reds were clearly second best for the majority of the game. It’s now a short turnaround to their next matches, with the Merseyside outfit playing the Parisians again on Tuesday. That affords them just two days of rest on either side of the Southampton fixture.
Rotation is likely for Liverpool, with their midfield especially looking tired yesterday. The likes of Alexis Mac Allister (£6.2m), Ryan Gravenberch (£5.0m) etc may get a rest and while Mohamed Salah (£13.8m) is expected to start, reduced minutes are likely.
With Liverpool, the concern just isn’t reduced minutes. Something I noticed in the Chelsea v Southampton game last Gameweek is that the Blues never really needed to get out of second gear to put four goals past the Saints. After they went two goals up, the game really felt like a training exercise. There was no real ‘fear’ of their opponent getting back into the game.
I expect the Liverpool game to be similar. Once the Reds are up by 2/3 goals, I don’t see them looking to score five or six. I think they will rather look to rotate their first-choice players and go into energy-conservation mode for Tuesday. So while Salah is still the player most likely to score a double-digit haul this week, the ceiling may not be as high as it appears on paper.
However, Leicester City’s stats are also nowhere near as bad as Southampton’s. Leicester rank 11th for open-play goal attempts conceded over the last six Gameweeks (58), while Southampton sit 18th (70). The Saints are also 20th for non-penalty xGC (13.77), while the Foxes are 14th (9.92).
They are still the two bottom sides for big chances conceded (23 and 30), so essentially they’re both really bad.
Cole Palmer (£11.1m) was visibly disappointed when failing to score last game and I think he and the Chelsea team will be doing their best to get him on the scoresheet. So while Palmer is an excellent captaincy shout, for him to really do any improvement to your rank you need Salah to do poorly – which seems like a stretch against a dire Southampton side. I would still lean towards captaining the Egyptian.
It’s not impossible though that we see Liverpool put three past the Saints and Salah get just an assist while Palmer gets a brace against Leicester. There are just 11 Gameweeks left in the season now, so if you want to go different to make up ground, there could be an opportunity.
Q: After the Leicester City game, should we sell Cole Palmer to get Erling Haaland?
(via FPL VIRGIN)
A: I don’t think Erling Haaland (£14.7m) is an essential purchase in Gameweek 29. Brighton and Hove Albion’s defensive numbers have improved: the Seagulls sit fourth for xGC (5.49) over the last six Gameweeks. A case can be made for Chris Wood (£7.2m) being a better captaincy option against an Ipswich Town side that have conceded the most goals (20) over the aforementioned period.
Yes, Haaland has Leicester in Gameweek 30, which could be better than Salah home to Everton. However, Palmer has Tottenham Hotspur at home that week as well. We need to see how City and Haaland fare against Nottingham Forest, too, so let’s cross that bridge later. It’s also quite team dependent, with how many blankers you are fielding already.
Q: Who is the best short-term Lewis Hall replacement for the next 2-3 Gameweeks? I’m not playing the Free Hit in Gameweek 29 and will be Wildcarding in Gameweek 30/31.
(via LILMESSIPRAN)
A: Despite the blank in Gameweek 29, Daniel Munoz (£5.0m) is still top of my list. I reckon the Colombian international outscores most defenders over the next three Gameweeks despite the guaranteed zero in Gameweek 29. The fixtures against Ipswich and Southampton are absolutely mouth-watering.
Milos Kerkez (£5.0m) would be second for me with Rayan Ait-Nouri (£4.7m) in third. If budget is not an issue, Josko Gvardiol (£5.9m) also appeals.
Q: Does Dango Ouattara start v Tottenham Hotspur? Should we start him in our FPL teams?
(via PEP ROULETTE)
A: Evanilson (£5.6m) got around 70 minutes against Wolverhampton Wanderers, his first start in a long time. Andoni Iraola mentioned that the forward needed minutes to build his match fitness and I think the FA Cup presented an ideal opportunity to do so. It is worth mentioning that both Dango Ouattara (£5.2m) and Justin Kluivert (£6.1m) were benched for that one, so that perhaps indicates that it was Iraola shuffling the pack rather than fielding a first-choice team.
Given the physical nature of a game against Spurs, I think Dango will start this weekend – either on the wing or up top.
His numbers have been excellent. No midfielder has had more big chances (eight) over the last six Gameweeks and he is also joint-top for shots in the box (16).
Spurs’ priority will be their UEFA Europa League game and they have struggled on the weekend after a midweek European game this season. I would start Dango.
Q: Omar Marmoush or Chris Wood? I can only get one as a Matheus Cunha replacement. I’ll Wildcarding around 31/32.
(via @AR_FPL147)
A: Let’s use this question to talk about potential Matheus Cunha (£7.0m) and Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.5m) replacements.
First off, if you can afford to delay this replacement by one Gameweek by fielding your fifth midfielder or your fourth defender, I would do so. By then we will have more clarity on whether Haaland warrants a transfer in Gameweek 29, Evanilson’s fitness etc. The entry point on Wood isn’t the best either this week.
With Omar Marmoush (£7.2m), I worry about consistent minutes with Manchester City now out of Europe. Kevin De Bruyne (£9.3m) and Phil Foden (£9.2m) will both be vying with him for that position. Could we see, for example, Marmoush start in the FA Cup after the international break and De Bruyne come in for Leicester in Gameweek 30?
It’s worth mentioning that City contest the first match in Gameweek 28, so you could get some early team news. It’s a very punty pick though, and I think there are better options elsewhere. If Marmoush looks electric against Nottingham Forest, it would enhance his credentials – so that’s another reason to wait.
If you have to make a forward transfer this week, Wood would be my choice. He is in the captaincy conversation for Gameweek 29 and is an easy hold past that, irrespective of your Wildcard horizon/chip strategy.
If you already own Wood, I would be looking at Yoane Wissa (£6.4m). Aston Villa have generally struggled after European exertions and Wissa has been a monster in home matches this season.
Q: Regarding the Bench Boost, why save for Gameweeks 32/33 when it likely will still just have single Gameweek players on your bench? If it looks good this week, would you use it? It saves spending money on the bench on a Wildcard.
(via @FPLandCoral)
A: Just a few words on chip strategy. It’s really difficult to chart a clear path right now with none of the FA Cup ties except Aston Villa’s easy to predict. There are a lot of ways the chips could fall, so I think the only strategy I would advocate in the short term is to try to save your Free Hit for later than Gameweek 29 (team dependent of course) and don’t plan to use your Wildcard till Gameweek 30/31.
If your team looks good for a Bench Boost this week, I think it’s a decent idea to play it. It gives you more flexibility for the long run. As you say, often our Bench Boost includes some single Gameweek players anyway.
We discussed these topics and more in depth in this week’s episode of the FPL Wire. You can check it out here.
