How does 2024/25 compare with other FPL seasons?

The interminable break is almost over and Gameweek 30 will soon be here to herald the start of the season run-in.

With just nine Gameweeks to go, we’ve got a pretty good grasp on 2024/25. The title is all but sewn up, the three promoted clubs are hot favourites to go back down and Nottingham Forest really do belong in the upper echelons of the Premier League.

But how does 2024/25 compare to previous campaigns?

We thought we’d take a deep dive to evaluate how the underlying defensive and offensive metrics have changed.

Sensational Salah

Liverpool’s success has been built on the irresistible form of Mohamed Salah (£13.7m). He has already beaten the previous all-time FPL points record, set by himself, of 303 points. He will reach 400 if he maintains this ludicrous rate of 10.6 per start.

The Egyptian King’s 17 assists are almost as impressive as his 27 strikes, covering 39% of Liverpool’s goals. Last season, his 32 appearances brought 18 goals and 10 assists.

Interestingly, the Reds’ goals output isn’t wildly different to last season’s. It’s only two more than Jurgen Klopp’s side managed at this stage 12 months ago and six goals fewer than in 2021/22, when they finished runners-up.

During their last four title-winning seasons, Manchester City only once exceeded this many goals after 29 matches. The net was hit 75 times in 2022/23.

Arsenal bossing the backlines

Meanwhile, having a strong defence is just as important and Liverpool’s has been watertight so far. Yet they’ve conceded the same 27 as last time, when they went on to finish third.

Solid numbers but not like Arsenal, whose backline is this term’s best, letting in only 24. Again, it’s the exact same number as this stage of 2023/24.

So why are Liverpool 12 points clear? Simply put, the Gunners have been lacklustre in front of goal. They lack a cutting edge, with 53 strikes being far less than the 70 of the previous two seasons.

Of course, extenuating circumstances include an injury crisis that has decimated Mikel Arteta’s attacking options. Over the first three seasons of his tenure, the north London side improved their end-product each time, even outscoring Man City last time.

The fact that Bukayo Saka (£10.2m) remains joint-second in the assists charts despite not being fit for the latest 12 matches reflects what an anomalous season they’re experiencing.

Failing to provide an adequate replacement for sidelined duo Kai Havertz (£7.7m) or Gabriel Jesus (£6.5m) has cost them their title challenge and prompted FPL managers to steer clear of their offensive options. Perhaps Saka’s imminent return will change that avoidance.

A Man City slump

The reigning champions have fallen away horribly in recent months. Their 55 goals after 29 matches are way less than the previous four seasons (67.25, on average). Losing Rodri (£6.2m) hasn’t helped but, though most injuries have affected their defence, there is no sugar-coating the fact that their attack has underwhelmed.

Kevin De Bruyne (£9.3m) looks a spent force, Jack Grealish (£6.4m) has failed to convince Pep Guardiola and Phil Foden (£9.2m) is a pale imitation of the FPL star who amassed 230 points last season. Instead of 19 goals and eight assists, he’s currently on a mere seven and three.

• READ MORE: Wood injury latest as Forest striker hobbles off

Despite the result, Erling Haaland (£14.8m) is continuing to deliver: 21 goals and three assists. Even then, is it enough to justify his price tag? We can see that Chris Wood (£7.3m) and Alexander Isak (£9.3m) have fewer goals but almost identical FPL points.

Overall goals are drying up

Scoring goals isn’t just an Arsenal and Man City problem. It’s been a general rule in this Premier League campaign. The 17 teams that have been here for the last two seasons have collectively netted 54 fewer times than at this stage of 2023/24.

Notable exceptions to this rule are Nottingham Forest, Brentford and Bournemouth. But the drop-offs have been far starker. Aston Villa, Arsenal, Newcastle United and West Ham United are short by 19, 17, 16 and 13 goals.

Even Tottenham Hotspur – down in 14th place but the joint-second highest scorers with 55 – have succeeded on six fewer occasions.

* Newcastle and Crystal Palace have played only 28 matches this season

Why is this?

Aston Villa’s dramatic reduction is likely because of their Champions League involvement. Unai Emery’s side has won only two matches immediately after competing in it, scoring seven times across those nine encounters. Those FPL managers owning Villa attackers should bear that in mind.

As for West Ham, their struggles are largely down to the shambles of Julen Lopetegui’s tenure and the subsequent prioritising of defence by his replacement, Graham Potter.

Newcastle’s involvement in both cups has proven to be a (successful) distraction. Even so, imagine where they’d be without Isak, who has scored 40.42 per cent of their goals.

In general, maybe we’re witnessing the impact of Euro 2024 players not getting a sufficient summer rest. Financial Fair Play regulations have compounded the problem by stopping clubs from adding sufficient squad depth, even though the extra fixtures added to Champions League and Europa League schedules demand rotation.

Continental competitors Spurs, Arsenal, Man City and Manchester United have all suffered extensive injury issues. That can’t be a coincidence.

Clean sheet spike

Naturally, a struggle for goals has the knock-on effect of more shut-outs. From an FPL perspective, maybe we should be paying more attention to our defenders and goalkeepers. There have been 127 clean sheets in all, a considerable spike from this stage last season (113).

Only four teams are on fewer clean sheets when comparing: Arsenal (-1), Man City (-2), Villa (-2) and Fulham (-3). Nine teams have managed more of them.

No prizes for guessing the biggest gain, as Nottingham Forest have leapt from four to a joint-best 12. After that, it’s Liverpool, Crystal Palace and Brighton and Hove Albion, each on three more. That’s sad reading for those who’d previously lost patience with Dean Henderson (£4.6m) and Bart Verbruggen (£4.5m).

* Newcastle and Crystal Palace have played only 28 matches this season

Defences on top

Last season, the 17 non-relegated clubs conceded 739 goals after 29 matches. Now it’s a parsimonious 666 – a hefty improvement of 73. The big losers on this front are Man City and Wolverhampton Wanderers, as they’ve let in an extra 12.

Bournemouth, Forest and Palace are the biggest rearguard improvements. Much has been made of the Cherries’ goal-scoring, but they’re also 17 goals better off defensively, while Forest and Palace have prevented 16 compared to last season.

Newcastle and, perhaps surprisingly, Chelsea, have improved at the back by 13 goals each.

As ever, the trick for FPL managers is to identify defenders that can marry offensive contributions with defensive returns. And if certain backlines are dramatically improving, their assets should be prized.

Teams to target

At present, Forest’s Ola Aina (£5.4m) and Nikola Milenkovic (£4.9m) represent extraordinary value because Nuno Espirito Santo’s lot has massively improved. 

Both are within the three highest-scoring defenders, ahead of the pricier Arsenal duo Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.4m) and William Saliba (£6.2m).

* Newcastle and Crystal Palace have played only 28 matches this season