Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly Q&A, giving his opinion on new Manchester City asset Antoine Semenyo (£7.6m), plus when to Wildcard and how to invest in these strong-looking Chelsea fixtures.
You can find Zophar’s Gameweek 22 team reveal here.
Q: Enzo Fernandez (£6.5m), Morgan Rogers (£7.7m) or Harry Wilson (£5.9m)? Preferably two of these… Cheers!
(via BR510)
A: Given the fixture swing in Gameweek 24 and, to an extent, Gameweek 22, I think four midfielders should be on everyone’s shopping list: Enzo, Rogers, Wilson and Bruno Fernandes (£9.1m).
As this table from our Members Area shows, three of these are among the last six Gameweeks’ top seven midfielders for non-penalty expected goal involvement (NPxGI).
I had some concern about Fulham selling Wilson this month, given he’s out of contract in the summer. But Marco Silva allayed those worries in his latest press conference, saying there is “zero chance” of this.
He’s the cheapest of the quartet, and I don’t think his ship has sailed. Upcoming fixtures against Leeds United, Brighton and Hove Albion and Manchester United don’t look great for clean sheets, but I still back the Cottagers to score in each of them.
Rogers is now displaying the underlying numbers that back his output. He’s taken 21 shots over the last six Gameweeks, with only Matheus Cunha (£8.1m) attempting more (25) amongst midfielders. Then again, only two were big chances, so he’s relying on shot volume, rather than quality.
But Aston Villa are a serious side in the Champions League race. As their main man now, he’s a great option ahead of an exciting run of fixtures. Of their next seven opponents, only Newcastle United finished in last season’s top seven.
As for Enzo, his numbers have been consistent all season. He trails only Erling Haaland (£15.1m) for overall NPxGI, but there is some uncertainty about his role under Liam Rosenior. Ideally, FPL managers want Enzo to play in ‘the hole’, but Rosenior may still use him in a deeper role.
Nevertheless, he’s the Chelsea attacker I trust the most for minutes during their huge fixture congestion. He’s a cheap route into their incredible-looking run from Gameweeks 24 to 27, versus West Ham United, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Leeds and Burnley.
I don’t need to say much about his near-namesake Fernandes. He was a top pick when playing deeper, and we expect such output to increase once he’s fielded behind the striker. However, Bruno faces the league’s top two sides up next, making Gameweek 24 a better entry point. Maybe reaching him from Cunha this week, if possible in one move, is worth doing.
To summarise: if money isn’t a consideration, I’d go for Rogers and Enzo now, before targeting Fernandes in Gameweek 24.
Q: How bad does your team need to be to consider a Wildcard in these next few weeks?
(via Hairy Potter)
A: My FPL Wire co-host and Pro Pundit Pras did an excellent video on possible Wildcard windows and chip strategy, which I highly recommend watching. He lists the tradeoffs of Wildcard in either Gameweek 22 or 24, versus one around Gameweek 32.
- READ MORE: FPL Family’s Sam – Why I have hit the Wildcard button
- READ MORE: Lateriser – Why I will not Wildcard in FPL Gameweek 24
Unless there are a lot of injuries or players randomly sold in the transfer window, I would look to save the chip.
Q: Trevoh Chalobah (£5.5m) or Nordi Mukiele (£4.4m) for the next three?
(via lilmessipran)
A: Chelsea are apparently in the market for a new centre-back, and it remains to be seen what Rosenior wants from his first choice pairing. Maresca obviously valued ball progression, but I don’t think it was to the extent that Rosenior does.
Chalobah is a hoofer; passing ability is probably his biggest limitation, and I would try to wait and see how this pans out. I also want to assess how resolute their backline is, in general.
Meanwhile, I think Mukiele is a great pick for the long term and a good addition to your squad. Though if you do feel certain on Chalobah and Chelsea’s defence, then you could go for him now.
Q: Is Semenyo not playing in the Champions League? Can we therefore reasonably think he starts in the Premier League, meaning Jeremy Doku (£6.4m), Phil Foden (£8.7m) and Rayan Cherki (£6.8m) are fighting for two spots?
Q: Is it best to avoid all Man City midfielders? So many options and rotation.
(via Raoul Nogues and Defcons are for Kinnear)
A: To the best of my knowledge, Semenyo cannot play in the next two Champions League matches, but Man City can add him to the squad once the knockout round arrives.
Does this enhance his minutes for the short-term, up to Gameweek 24? Well, I do think starts are very likely – but not certain – given what he offers to the team. He’s a very different profile of winger compared to Doku, Cherki and Savinho (£6.9m). Someone who operates closer to goal.
They also have Omar Marmoush (£8.3m) returning soon from the Africa Cup of Nations, further bolstering Pep Guardiola’s options. So, I think whatever you have now, you hold at least until Gameweek 23’s fixture against Wolves.
I certainly wouldn’t be rushing to buy any of them right now, but think Semenyo might turn out to be the best FPL midfielder in their ranks.
Q: Is selling Jarrod Bowen (£7.7m) to Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6.0m) worth using this week’s free transfer on?
(via Philosopher’s Stones)
A: Lucas Paqueta’s (£5.9m) recent transfer speculation could give penalty duties to Bowen but, in general, I am not optimistic about West Ham’s chances of scoring multiple goals in any game, which limits his ceiling a bit.
Yet, while Leeds meet Arsenal, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Man City in their next eight, they boast a much better attack. I think I would make that move to Calvert-Lewin, as it frees up a bit of cash, too.
Q: Do you think Robert Sanchez (£4.9m) is at risk of Liam Rosenior wanting to recall Mike Penders from his Strasbourg loan? Considering the EFL Cup semi-final performance, his distribution isn’t what Rosenior wants for his type of football.
(via @nickhillman12)
A: Sanchez had a poor game in midweek. One of his strengths this season has been claiming crosses, and he should have done much better for both goals.
But I still don’t think the Blues will recall Penders in this window. It would be a PR disaster, having already taken Strasbourg’s manager midway through the season. I do think Filip Jorgensen (£4.3m) could be given a chance, though, which is why I’d be wary of investing in Chelsea’s goalkeepers at the moment.
