A dismal midweek for English clubs in the UEFA Champions League has taken the Premier League down a peg after the League Phase cakewalk.
None of the six Premier League teams holds a first-leg advantage in their last-16 ties. Three of them are three goals behind.
But what could a round-of-16 mass-exit mean for FPL managers, particularly with regards to Double Gameweek 33/Blank Gameweek 34?
We discuss this below.
PREMIER LEAGUE CLUBS’ CHANCES OF PROGRESS
Here’s the ‘before and after’ predicted chances of progress, courtesy of Opta and the BBC.
32% seems quite generous for Newcastle United, given that they’ve got to go to the Nou Camp next week.
Arsenal and Liverpool are the Premier League’s best hopes, with the other three heading out bar a miracle.
WHY DOES CHAMPIONS LEAGUE INVOLVEMENT IMPACT GAMEWEEK 34?
You probably know by now that teams progressing to the FA Cup semi-finals will have their Gameweek 34 fixtures postponed.
Those postponed fixtures can’t move to the subsequent midweek if at least one of the teams involved is still in Europe. They’d instead be shifted to free midweeks after Gameweek 33/Gameweek 36 (probably the former), creating a ‘double’.
You can see this visualised in Legomane’s graphic below:
But what if the clubs are out of Europe?
You’ve guessed it: the affected fixtures could then stay in Gameweek 34, being played in the midweek instead of the weekend.
This happened last season with Nottingham Forest v Brentford.
REALISTICALLY, HOW LIKELY IS NO DOUBLE GAMEWEEK 33/BLANK GAMEWEEK 34?
Not very.
Arsenal will surely beat Southampton in the FA Cup, and they’re big favourites to get past Leverkusen. So that’s one Double Gameweek 33/Blank Gameweek 34 combo (Arsenal and Newcastle doubling in the former, blanking in the latter) we’d expect to see.
Manchester City v Crystal Palace, originally earmarked for Gameweek 31, also has to be crowbarred in somewhere. Palace are another team involved in European competition.
And even if all six Premier League teams go out of the Champions League, the broadcasters may throw their weight around.
Sky Sports, for example, may want some of the postponed Gameweek 34 fixtures moved to Gameweek 33 regardless, to avoid a ratings clash with any other football game.
Long story short: expect to still get a Double Gameweek 33/Blank Gameweek 34. They just might not be as big (two to three affected fixtures, rather than four) as they could have been.
