As the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) deadline approaches, the Free Hit could tempt plenty of managers.
Several popular picks face difficult fixtures, while Manchester City, Newcastle United, Nottingham Forest and Everton all offer exciting alternatives.
So, is this the perfect week to attack the fixtures with a completely new squad? We look at the pros and cons before building our Free Hit draft.
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PROS
AVOID DIFFICULT MATCH-UPS
One of the biggest attractions of the Free Hit is the opportunity to move away from several popular assets who face considerably tougher tests this week.
Sunderland travel to Manchester City, immediately reducing the appeal of their players.
Brighton assets also enjoyed plenty of success against Coventry City last time out. Pascal Gross (£5.6m) and Maxim De Cuyper (£4.8m), in particular, rewarded their owners with hauls. However, a meeting with reigning champions Arsenal offers significantly less potential.
Chelsea are another interesting case. Many FPL managers doubled or even tripled up on their attack for the excellent home fixture against Hull City. An away trip to Brentford may be a good opportunity to temporarily reduce that investment.
The Free Hit also provides a temporary escape route from individual players whose appeal has diminished.
Phil Foden (£7.0m) is suspended, while Rayan Cherki (£7.8m) has been withdrawn significantly early in each of his previous three starts in all competitions. Dominik Szoboszlai (£7.0m) faces Bournemouth but has not completely convinced as an FPL option.
Even the Arsenal triple-up isn’t necessarily untouchable for one week. An away meeting with Brighton looks tougher than some of their recent fixtures, despite the Gunners’ excellent start.
Likewise, Brentford defenders face a potent Chelsea attack. Their attacking assets could also be sacrificed if managers believe better one-week opportunities exist elsewhere.
ATTACK THE FIXTURES
The bigger attraction is what you can replace those players with.
Manchester City sit top of the projected goals standings ahead of their home meeting with Sunderland. They also feature among the five sides with the highest clean-sheet projections.
Newcastle are another team with potential. They host Hull City and rank second for projected goals, as well as featuring among the leading clean-sheet candidates.
Nottingham Forest’s meeting with Coventry City also stands out. Coventry have lost every league match so far and are yet to score, making Forest assets appealing at both ends of the pitch.
Everton could provide a particularly useful source of Free Hit differentials. They host Ipswich Town and sit inside the top five for both projected goals and clean-sheet probability, yet many managers are unlikely to already own multiple Everton players.
Leeds United are another side worth considering at home to Crystal Palace. Plenty of managers have moved away from their assets on recent Wildcards, so the Free Hit provides an opportunity to jump straight back on for one Gameweek.
Meanwhile, those who recently sold Manchester United players can reconsider them for the meeting with Fulham. Bruno Fernandes (£12.0m) and Bryan Mbeumo (£7.9m) immediately return to the conversation.
NO NEED TO COMMIT TO LESS-FANCIED TEAMS LONGER TERM
A normal transfer always comes with one important question: Do I want this player beyond the upcoming deadline?
The Free Hit removes that concern.
Everton and Nottingham Forest assets, for example, don’t necessarily need to fit your longer-term plans. You can simply target their favourable fixtures and move straight back to your original squad afterwards.
The same applies to doubling or tripling up on Newcastle and Manchester City.
This freedom also makes short-term punts much easier to justify. Minutes, medium-term fixtures and future transfers matter considerably less when you’re building solely for one deadline.
CONS
MOVING AWAY FROM SOME OF THE LEAGUE’S BEST ASSETS
A difficult fixture doesn’t automatically make a good player a bad FPL option.
Arsenal have established themselves as the league’s leading side, so removing three of their assets for a trip to Brighton could easily backfire.
The same applies to Chelsea’s attack. They have been one of the strongest attacking sides in the division and could still cause Brentford plenty of problems away from home.
Brentford attackers shouldn’t automatically be written off either. Chelsea’s attacking strength doesn’t necessarily mean they will shut the Bees out.
This is perhaps the biggest danger of the Free Hit: chasing fixtures can result in selling excellent, in-form players who are highly owned within the FPL community.
If those players deliver while your one-week punts fail, the chip can quickly work against you.
ARE YOU ALREADY WELL SET UP?
Before activating the chip, it’s worth looking at how many changes you would actually make.
Managers already owning several Manchester City, Newcastle, Nottingham Forest or Everton players may find that their existing squad covers many of the week’s strongest fixtures.
One or two free transfers could be enough to solve the biggest problems.
In that scenario, using an entire chip to make a handful of upgrades becomes much harder to justify.
BETTER FREE HIT OPPORTUNITIES COULD EMERGE
There is also no requirement to use the Free Hit now.
Gameweek 12 presents another potential opportunity, with Arsenal hosting Manchester City. Many managers could own several players from both sides by then, making it an awkward fixture to navigate.
Gameweek 14 could prove even more appealing. Manchester City visit Brentford, Chelsea face Liverpool, while the Tyne-Wear and North London derbies also take place. That could leave plenty of popular assets facing difficult or unpredictable fixtures.
Injuries, suspensions and rotation could also mount as domestic and European cup competitions progress.
Saving the Free Hit therefore keeps an emergency option available if a future Gameweek leaves your squad particularly stretched.
YOUR ORIGINAL SQUAD DOESN’T FREEZE IN VALUE
Activating the Free Hit temporarily replaces your squad, but your original players remain exposed to price changes.
That means players in your returning squad can fall in value while players you’re considering for future transfers can rise.
It shouldn’t dictate whether you use the chip, but managers with very little money in the bank should keep it in mind. This was also one of the drawbacks highlighted in our previous Free Hit assessment.
GAMEWEEK 5 FREE HIT DRAFT
Manchester City are searching for a third successive clean sheet when they host Sunderland, making Gianluigi Donnarumma (£5.5m) an appealing route into their defence.
Nottingham Forest also have a standout fixture against a Coventry City side who remain pointless and goalless. Neco Williams (£5.0m) could benefit at both ends of the pitch, while Forest have conceded just five big chances this season.
Further forward, Morgan Gibbs-White (£7.9m) takes penalties and leads the league for big chances created, with four. He also created seven chances in his latest outing. Liam Delap (£5.5m), meanwhile, scored last time out and registered six attempts.
Everton’s meeting with Ipswich brings James Tarkowski (£6.1m) and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (£6.5m) into consideration. Tarkowski has delivered a goal, clean sheet and/or DefCon points in every Gameweek, while Dewsbury-Hall ranks third for successful passes into the penalty area.
Leeds’ home clash with a leaky Crystal Palace boosts the appeal of Anton Stach (£6.0m) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6.0m). Newcastle also sit top of the fixture ticker ahead of their home meeting with Hull, bringing Lewis Hall (£5.2m) into consideration.
Finally, Erling Haaland (£15.5m) looks like the standout captain. He leads the league for xG, box shots and big chances, and has scored four times since Gameweek 2.
