Following on from Mark’s article about the impact of the changes to Fantasy Premier League’s (FPL) Bonus Point System (BPS) I’m now looking to add some depth to the analysis by going back and recalculating BPS scores from last season for every player but using the new BPS scoring methodology. Please click on each picture to see an enlarged version.
The Results
On the left-hand chart I’ve plotted the old BPS scores on the horizontal axis and the new BPS scores on the vertical, while the right-hand chart shows the same for actual bonus points. The black 45 degree line marks the point at which the scoring methodology produces no actual change in outcome. Data points above and to the left of the black line therefore represent an improvement in BPS or bonus points under the new system compared to the old.
This is how the change in BPS scores breaks down between the four different components of the changed methodology of passing, saves, CBI (clearances, blocks and interceptions) and tackles, shown in aggregate for all player appearances last season:
Focusing on BPS points for now, as Mark surmises in his article it is goalkeepers (green data points in the charts) that are clearly favoured by the new system, however this is not necessarily at the expense of defenders, who also show an improvement in overall BPS scores.
For defenders (and to a lesser extent midfielders), the negative impact of reduced pass completion BPS points is more than offset by the gain in tackles and CBI.
But it is the additional point for saves that is the real kicker here; virtually all of goalkeepers’ BPS improvement is down to the additional save points. Swansea’s Lucasz Fabianski, for example, improves his BPS score by 138 overall, 137 of which is represented by the saves he made. This is true across the board for keepers.
Winners and Losers
Let’s have a look at the individuals who show the highest gains and losses in BPS points:
The sea of green (goalkeepers) in the top chart and red (midfielders) in the bottom chart tells its own story.
So how do the new BPS scores translate into actual bonus points? Here’s the list of top winners and losers:
Goalkeepers again clearly show the best improvement. However, look at the first chart above (right-hand chart showing bonus points) and note that the cluster of green data points is focused in the bottom left of the chart, indicating that goalkeepers continue to do relatively poorly in the bonus point stakes as a whole, despite showing the biggest gains in absolute terms.
So Pantilimon, for example, shows the biggest increase in bonus points (moving from 7 to 17), however this still pales into relative insignificance compared to players like Hazard (38 bonus points under the new system, down from 42) or Kane (32 under both systems).
The infamous Arsenal-Sunderland game towards the end of the season was rightly highlighted as an illustration of the unfairness of the old BPS system for goalkeepers. Looking at the impact of the bonus point changes for this game, Pantilimon does indeed benefit, with his eight saves in that game seeing him leapfrog all the Arsenal defenders to pick up the maximum bonus points.
And what of those slick-passing Arsenal centre-backs?
Both Koscielny and Mertesacker do indeed suffer from the reduction in pass completion BPS points. However Koscielny more than makes up for this with CBIs alone and actually improves his overall BPS score. Mertesacker does suffer proportionally more from pass completion, and ends down by 12 BPS points, but in the context of an overall score of 720 BPS points, this is not a large drop.
In terms of bonus points, both are worse off, with Koscielny down by three and Mertesacker down by four points.
Conclusion
What does this mean for team selection? Probably not much. Yes, you might want to spend a little more on goalkeepers, but my key takeaway from this analysis was from the very first chart. Yes there are some winners and losers, but the data points in the chart are clustered relatively tightly around the black 45 degree line.
In other words, the heavy-hitters will continue to pick up the most bonus points while the bargain basement players will by and large continue to do poorly. Furthermore, when you consider that goals, assists and clean sheets continue to be a bigger source of points than the bonus system, I think the impact of the changes will be relatively limited.
One final point on goalkeepers. They tend to score at between 20 and 25 FPL points per 1.0 of starting cost, which means for every 0.5 increase in cost, you would be looking for around 10 to 13 additional FPL points.
Pantilimon has been priced up by 0.5 this season compared to his starting price last season, which means the bulk of his additional bonus points from the new system are already factored into his price. The other big gainers such as Fabianski, Guzan and Schmeichel start at the same price as last season, so their BPS benefit may not have been factored in.
N.B: This analysis won’t be 100% accurate because for double Gameweeks I only have the Opta stats for that Gameweek rather than for each game within that pair of matches. Nonetheless I think that will only have a marginal impact around the edges.
