Its actually the saving of enforced defence transfers that appeals to me - I have spent ages pondering over questions such as which of Sunderland 4.5s defs will start and the answer is we just don't know yet.

I think many of the 5.0s are in part priced that little bit more because they are safer starting selections with lower rotation risk, Attacking returns or clean sheets will be a bonus but its also about security of starts for me. It is only when the safe 4.5 options become apparent I may consider switching, though I think I will probably look to stay with a couple of solid 5.0 defenders that carry potential additional returns from teams with good fixtures.

Thanks for the feedback folks.

The strategy is not really based on the 5.0s increasing in value, that's the icing on the cake.
Hard to believe but I culled some of my rationale in the interest of brevity so at least someone would get to the end of my post!!!
Increased security of starts of the 5.0s over 4.5 defs saving the need for early defensive correction so I can concentrate transfers on switching the premium mids and 2nd and 3rd striker to form players and bandwagons is key. The aim is to increase value over the whole team (except I expect the weak 4th mid) through solid picks that are likely to attract many transfers and then release it via wildcard - I will be 4-3-3 with the masses post wildcard.
My gut feeling early on when budget is at its tightest, is with 4 at the back
3 x 5.0 def + 1 x 4.5 will give better average returns than
3 x 4.5 def + 6-7.0ish mid
I guess it depends on how well you can pick your 4.5s at the off.

Thanks again for all the helpful feedback and I am honoured by the hulking - probably downhill from this point on.

Cheers for the comment - the 4.5 5th mid stays rooted as 3rd sub going nowhere, he enables Kun being in my line-up.

I think its a very fair point upgrading the 5.0 4th mid won't be easy if using FT but that is where the wildcard comes in to release the value from those defenders and move it forwards once TV has increased a little.

Hopefully at that point there are lots of safe 4.5 defs that have been identified to move to. My initial plan is to deploy this around GW8-9 to capitalise of the new block of fixtures, but this is fluid, part depending on an increase in team value, and more crucially, I haven't bottled it and already used it as a 7-0 is tearing it up!

This.

Mine?
The mighty Stu Sinclair - Pirates mid-beard dynamo, back tearing up Div 2 pitches after a season visiting the Conference - happy days.

What rank were you last season if you don't mind me asking.

The million dollar question!
PVA, Williams or Fernandez, Jenkinson paired with cheap BOU, Cedric, Lescott after a few weeks, Janmaat all have appeal at the moment.

Cheers - like the lottery analogy - maybe to build on it I guess I am buying scratchcards to start with, potentially small returns but better win odds, then will be switching to the main lottery for double roll-overs later.

Ivan plus 4.0 vs same 2 x 5.5, close call, but odds improve if those 5.5s occasionally get moved to new ones when fixture blocks change so each 5.5 has both form and fixtures, whereas Ivan has to play the odd tough fixture. I guess the hard to quantify factor here is how productively you can then use the transfers you save up from by having Ivan locked in your team.

Un-rotated defender point again good, but my intention is to still rotate 4 from 5, won't be playing the 3 5.0's every week if one of my two 4.5 has better fixture as I have picked them with a 5.0 rotation pairing in mind - e.g. only 50% of Jenkinsons early fixtures I plan to start him, but happy to rotate him with Francis for first 8 weeks. Some will claim too much then on the bench that week, but its which will deliver the points each individual week, not how much they cost per point that will matter.

Mmmmmmmmmm cheese - never could resist. Tastes nicer than grass, baaaaaa.

Don't disagree with you at all tbh - the majority of the year I will play 3-4-3 (or 3-5-2 if budget 3rd striker on board.)
This strategy is just to start with when I can't afford an 8.0+ 4th mid; once I can do that I will be all over 4-3-3, Every year like most casuals I get the wrong 4.5s before GW1 as I don't know whats in the managers thinking, and then ending up doing 2 or 3 transfers to put it right.

This approach hopefully affords me the breathing space to assess which 4.5s are nailed after first 5 weeks and then move to them freeing up cash if I want. If nothing else of it works, my view is that is still like giving me a +8 or +12 boost from my previous campaigns by avoiding my usual early firefighting hits. As I lost my work league by 4 points last year I am trying to erase that factor from my game.

Wow that one will be popular on here!

I take your point re Hazard, its a big risk, but its not for the season just a small portion of it. That 2.5 invested elsewhere represents a bigger proportion of the transfer kitty now than it will in 2 months time. I am trying to rationalise if it gets placed on less risky picks elsewhere I should save 2 or 3 hits that I usually make, so cushions any of his returns. Like last year I think I will start with Fab and then hide behind the sofa until I swap them at wildcard - I have tried several ways to get him in and I am always 0.5 short and end up going back to 4.5 def dilemmas I had picked my formation to avoid.
Are you planning this as a short term strategy until wildcard like me, or for the season?
I did toy with 5-3-2 as on option as a way of affording Kun Roonpig and Haz + 2 top mids, and putting everything on the pitch and having absolute dross on the bench. The main drawback was it didn't allow the flexibility to switch to 4-4-2 when a def had poor fixture, and with no def rotation that will happen regularly. It's plus is you'd have 4 strong captain options, one of which would usually have a juicy fixture (downside being I'd go for that and then miss Kun haul on regular basis.)
Are you considering the 3rd striker to be top price or mid range?
Are you planning defensive season keepers and hope they stay injury free or something like Ivan / Kosc / switching the other 3 for fixture runs?
I was looking for flexibility of rotation and transfer for fixtures, this could be the other end of the spectrum and commiting to a fixed formation with players to play every week. It does have the attraction you could pick an 11 that would be pretty much rotation proof, so would only need to invest in 1 bench player that you'd have as fallback.

Good luck if you go for it.

Hi Epik
Had a little play this morning to see if could make 5 at back work and pick Hazard, even for 4 or 5 weeks - now pretty sure its not one for me if I wanted Haz, Rooney and Kun in the line-up. I just can't find 5 at the back I would play each week that doesn't kill the 3rd mids budget if I select Hazard, even if playing a cheap 3rd striker. I ended up with unbalanced and inflexible line-ups, which is surprising when we are both really only actually switching one starter.

With 4 at the back I can at least have one rotation to swerve the worst fixtures and accommodate a 4.5 def pick, I would be less comfortable if he had to play each week. I plan to have 3 8.5 / 9.0 mids playing each week - not sure even Haz and Silva as a 2 would do better unless you captained the correct one every week, and I cant get near to affording both and Kun in a 5-2-3 or 5-3-2 without two mid price fwds. Maybe if you are playing without Kun you might be able to make it work but I'd 100% rather forfeit Hazard than go that way. Kudos to you if you can pull it off though.

I would be interested to know the approx. prices you have allocated to your most likely starting mid that isn't Haz and the fwds just to get an idea how you are structuring your team.