We delve into the data this evening in our first members article of the week. Watford, Man City and Everton’s strikers arrive under analysis, whilst we also assess United and Newcastle’s attacks before casting an eye over a couple of defensive differentials from City and Liverpool.
Cedric, Azpi, Kolarov (Nyom, Huth)
Looking to improve this back line.
1. Azpi -> Smalling
2. Kolarov -> Smalling
3. Huth -> Moreno
4. Azpi/Kolarov for Rojo/Moreno/Bellerin/VVD
1.6m ITB.
which?or save? Rest of team:
Butland (Ruddy)
KDB, Sanchez, Payet, Mahrez (Wanyama)
Lukaku, Pelle, Vardy
save
2
It might not be the week to make these moves as your two main doubts-Azpi and Kolorov-have decent fixtures. Hold on for a week unless Clichy is back.
Imo, the ideal D at present looks like this:
Bellerin, Dawson, Moreno, Ake and Simpson. Keeps the costs down to allow for Kun and that 5th mid.
So I got it very wrong last week with Bony(c) and I'm even considering him again. Because AVL are woeful at the back, right? Wrong.
Their defensive stats at home this season are actually pretty good:
5th least shots conceded in the box
4th least big chances conceded
Also, Bony has only managed 4 shots in the box with 0 goals over his 4 away appearances this season.
I think that's enough to keep me away
new manager = new stats
That's a fair comment, although given the former manager was gung ho Sherwood this perhaps adds weight to the argument. Any idea how Garde usually sets up his teams?
only this stat. with lyon
Average goals scored per game : 1.6
average goals conceded per game : 1.2
Bony scored a goal and assist last night...
Real risk/reward option Bony (c). I'm happy enough to own him and take any points he gets without considering captaincy
Think Mahrez might be the go-to man this weekI think you may be right. On form and on pens in a very attacking LEI side at home.
He currently has my armband anyway.
Nah we're tight at the back. Arsenal were bloody lucky to get 3 goals
Hi guys,
As some people have been asking me about my FPL data pulling for the Grand Playoffs and the FIFFSA World Cup, I've made this viewable Google Sheet that can pull a players GW History, Chip History, Yearly History, Every Gameweek Starting XI, Gameweek Points (Live) and Gameweek Transfers (including hits);
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L2Xdx_1O_dx8lPkrh7PfffKSbWzY4xtiFxICcMf4usw/edit?usp=sharing
If you want to have a play around go to "File" -> "Make a copy...". This will make your own copy in your google drive that you can then edit.
Nice! Thanks for sharing 🙂
Thanks, Balders.
Also added:
Transfer History and Gameweek Points by player
Thanks for doing this.
I was never able to isolate the FPL IDs, and this seems to do the trick
The cheap defenders are shocking this year (Watford aside).
As a Cameron owner, I'm hoping he retains his place alongside ShawX. Anyone have any insight on that one?See my ideal D above for ideas ^
Just did and I screenshotted it. 🙂 Largely agree.
Look at Soaure (reason to be optimistic Gw13 onward) & Moreno .
Yeah, Ward and Souare are good options (relatively).
Morninga all. so, Darmian to:
A - Iron Mike Smalling
B - Moreno
C - Van D
D - Other
Cheers !A
Thanks, my thinking too. I've seen a lot of Moreno love here but I don't trust pool just yet
D - Bellerin
Ta. Sorry, should've said I've got Bellers and Bad K currently
Moreno or Dawson for me. See my ideal D above ^
@Balders: Following our discussion last page regarding Ighalo's value vs Kane/Lukku.
That may be true about Kane's xG, I don't dispute he's still under performing relative to his xG, but I still don't think it's large enough of a discrepancy between the two warrant nearly 4.0m more IMO. You can take captaincy into account perhaps, but I'm not sure there's much for this argument now with Agüero in the equation as Kane's best fixtures on paper in the next six also coincide with ideal fixtures for both Agüero & Kane.
If you were to analyze this from a very bare-bones xG perspective, to point toward regression & under performance: Lukaku (total xG = 4.8, total goals = 6.00), Kane (total xG = 5.78, total goals = 4.00), Ighalo (total xG = 3.20, total goals = 7.00). Perhaps a fairer comparison can be drawn between Lukaku & Ighalo, is there really that much a difference of xG here to really warrant an extra 3.0m? I don't think so, Ighalo's still taking quality poacher's shots in the box & has good accuracy to boot., he has great positioning & awareness.
In terms of points per million, I just can't see how Lukaku & to a lesser extent Kane, provide that much more. Now with Agüero back in the mix, I think value takes more precedence. Unless you're expecting double-digit hauls from both (which Ighalo is also capable of), considering the fixtures (lei, MUN, avl, NOR, sun, LIV, che), I just can't look past Ighalo's value tbh.Ighalo is the best value attacker in the game imo, and once Kun is back I am planning to get him in.
Hi Zasa,
You're right Lukaku's xG is much more comparable but I think Everton's fixtures warrant it especially as I am looking to captain him in gameweeks 13 (AVL) and 17 (LEI) especially as City have LIV and ars in those two games.
It is very close I'll admit and in my blog I do point to Kane -> Ighalo/Murray as an escape route if I don't ditch KdB. Time will tell I guess. I look forward to comparing our teams after your WC 🙂For sure, Everton look alright offensively & if Deulofeu continues to stay in the XI, I think I may prefer him as my Mahrez replacement. When he's started since Gw7 (four out of five matches), Everton have scored 10 goals & he's contributed to 6 of them compared to Lukaku's 7.
Same here 😉
I completely agree with everything you've said Zasa. I think people don't fancy Ighalo cause of the mere fact that they don't fancy Watford's attack. Its all about Ighalo tbh and to an extent, Deeney.
It's not pleasing to the eye, but he does get those points, I ditched him 2 weeks back even though I knew he is the best value in the game. Planning to get him back when Aguero's all good to go.A lot of it is that he's also a 5m attacker from the Championship too.
Sound planning, Ak.
Would you still be so hot on Ighalo if he'd scored 3 goals as expected? His goal involvement for them is 100% which is extremely unsustainable and Watford have (one of) the lowest xG in the league so even with good fixtures coming up he isn't going to do that much imo. However, at the moment you won't find a better value player but don't be surprised if he blanks 5/6 games in a row.
Not as unsustainable as you might think. The way we play is to feed the strikers - if you look at the stats for last year, Vydra, Deeney and Ighalo scored/assisted the vast, vast majority of goals (obviously only two could play at a time).
As for the blanking thing, obviously I'm biased, but as I'm sure you know, his record since he got a starting role in November last year is basically a goal a game.Fair enough. I'm just trying to add some balance to Zasa's argument. Even Austin's goal involvement was only around 60% last year so if he has that kind of impact to Watford his involvement is still going to drop. I'm not saying that he's a bad pick in any way.
Yeah 100% involvement is pretty absurd.
For what it's worth, I do expect us to score more goals in the coming games. I was really worried after the first 7/8 games that we barely looked like getting a shot on target, but during the Arsenal game there seemed to be a big change. Players are starting to get used to the system, and while the stats don't reflect it, the way the team have been playing I'd feel pretty confident about scoring against just about anyone.
This.
Fair points, Mull. I'm looking at him until Gw17/18 when his fixtures turn sour, so maybe then he'll start blanking consecutive games in a row. Until then, apart from his goal involvement stat, his underlying stats are still strong. Comparing him to Lukaku, he has more chances created & shots in the box in the last six. In terns of overall team goal threat, Watford are about even with Everton's in most areas. At 5.5, I can't fault him tbh. Strong upcoming attacking fixtures for Watford should do wonders for their xG, especially being high on confidence having beaten Hammers 2-0.
This xG map really boosts Watford's prospects imo, https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CSqcBJMWoAAWiPa.png:largeGenuinely should have scored 4 or 5.
If Deeney gets his shooting boots on soon he might become an option, could have had a few on Saturday.I hope so. He's been disappointing me in UFPL for the last 3 months whilst Ighalo has been banging them in.
I desperately need Chelsea CS this week, Begovic and Azpi owner
They'll probably deliver as well.
maaaan, can't wait that CS
Stoke has not being firing off lately..god chance of double CS
Hey lads
Bench 1 and Captain 1 ?
KDB - Yaya - Sanchez - Payet - Mahrez
Pelle - Vardy - Lukaku
The issues having a great a great front 8 😀AOA?
else Bench Vardy, Captain PelleAlready used AOA because of injuries unfortunately...
With the form he's in how can we bench vardy?
We have the exact same front 8 except Payet/ Mata ( bad by me)
AOA i think.
Captain Vardyalready used the AOA 🙁
Whooooo to bench ? benched Mahrez last week and i m still feeling the pain...Same, benched Mahrez last week.
Guess its Payet or Maherz or Pelle. I dont want to advise on this to honest as i have no idea
bench pelle/payet and captain Mahrez
bench payet
bench Payet
Defence of Kolarov, Bellerin, Francis, Dawson, Saylor*.
Assuming Bellerin is fit this week, thinking of saving the FT.
Do I play Francis (NEW) or Dawson (manu)?Francis
Francis
Have it on Francis at the moment.
Thanks guys.
I'm on the same boat and I'm leaning towards Dawson
Don't think Man U has higher chance of scoring than Newcastle?
WBA defence is better then Bournemouth's defence. Bournemouth have conceded 12 in their last 3 games.
WBA conceded 3 last weekend. Newcastle can't seem to score.
If I had a Newcastle attacker against Bournemouth I would be pretty confident.
Watford will keep a CS against Leicester.
*Then you woke up*
Liverpool will win the league this year
I've considered it a possibility.
Still not contemplating benching Mahrdy.
*Excluding Vardy
I'm playing Nyom instead of Francis.
OCD heaven: locked and loaded.
http://i.imgur.com/56OOEDT.jpgits beautiful...
😮Organised
Cheers. Quite proud. It's the only thing that's stopped me from captaining Darmian...
Delicious
You buy Adrian now you whore!
haha if only he wore claret too
Bench one cap one
ozil kdb payet mahrez mane
pelle vardy bonyThat's tough.
Bench Payet
Captain Mahrezthis
That's what im thinking too. Cheers
I'd bench Payet.
I obviously need to rejig my defence.
Williams - Bellerin - Darmian* - Muniesa* - Targett*
1 mil in the bank.
Thinking about finally changing Muniesa. I could also go ahead with Westwood to a 5.4 mid (Alli maybe?), but I don't fancy too many and Alli doesn't have the fixture to warrant the AOA chip this week.
Thoughts? I'd have loved Van Dijk, but obviously I can't get him if I do replace Muniesa. Which defender do you fancy at 5.3 and below?Moreno &/or Cedric for sure. Toby/Dier perhaps, I'm more of a Moreno guy myself, playing like a winger!
I don't think I fancy Spurs with Arsenal, West Ham and Chelsea in the next 3.
I think it's between Southampton and Liverpool. Who do you think is better for the medium terms? 4-6 weeks? I like Southampton's fixtures a lot, but Liverpool under Klopp have really looked strong at the back.Fair enough, though not sure the latter two are too worrying, IMO.
I prefer Moreno a bit, his goal threat is great.
Ake 4.4 at WAT and Simpson at 3.9.
Damian needs to be prioritised as his gametime is under threat. Dawson or Moreno appeal the most.
Mornings lads
Butland McCarthy
Azpi Kolarov Bertrand Francis Richards
Sanchez KDB Payet Maherz Westwood
Pelle Lukaku Vardy
1 FT , 3.3 itb
A) Azpi --> Rojo
B) Richards/Francis --> Moreno
C) Save
B
6m price tag on Smalling and he's come up trumps. FPL spot on time and time again.
erm...what's he done exactly?
Most points of any defender?
From being a liability not too long ago. Significant transformation.
Hardly noteworthy. Ds are low scoring and the cheaper the better.
Says the guy with 4 defenders priced over 5.1m 😉
Wow Klopp grew up in such a nice place:
https://www.google.ca/search?q=black+forest+germany&safe=off&espv=2&biw=1444&bih=778&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0CAYQ_AUoAWoVChMI0ruJo_D1yAIVD-FjCh1dTQiYbeautiful
wow
*burn the town*Indeed. I miss Reinaman's pics...
Front 8
Sanchez Mahrez Payet KDB Mane
Kane Ayoze Vardy
Good enough fixtures for Aoa? Now that bellerin is out.Wait for the dgws. I have no idea why people are obsessed with playing their chips right now.
sshhh
People are using their aoa whenever their defence is in shambles. I think i have quite a fee casualties is souare bellerin and a non playing targett
This
I hear what you say but the disruption created by getting sides to suit the chips can do more harm than good apart from the triple captain. Just my opinion!
Bench Ayoze.
Is he confirmed out?
yes, Real Suckratis Sociapath just confirmed it
🙄That Soks 😀
Doubtful*
Any news on Danny Rose?
Ben Davies looks like a bargain at 4.5 if Rose's injury is serious.When did Rose get injured? didn't he start this Monday?
He went off injured with about 10 mins to go.
wait for the presser then
News on Rose?
Hey guys
Do you think it's worth it going for a differential transfer KDB -> Sterling? It frees up cash for Aguero.
Got 3.9 currently in the bank.Yeah but that plan with Kun may still be a month away.
Thanks mate.
Payet will be this week's Mahrez - everybody's scapegoat from their heavy front 8, and will punish them.
People just don't learn.
Good.Let's hope so.
If you have a heavy front 8 there is always the dilemma of putting the low scorer on the bench. In real terms 7 to 1 to choose the lowest scorer. Ighalo has been my curse.
tbh I'm worried.
The kind of fixture where he's likely to get a haul.
Only comforting thing atm for me being that his last few returns were very lucky.They were. Love him as a player and he's quality in FPL but not convinced by the season keeper talk. A blank at home to NEW and things would have been very different.
He's also not guaranteed points when West Ham score big too. See BOU as an example.
Plus billions. Season keeper for me.
Considering the other nominees tend to either have better fixtures &/or form, or are just possess more goal threat in general (ie Mané & Mahrez). I think there's sound reasoning for benching IMO.
Hearing quite a bit of talk about people getting Aguero back for GW13. Why is this? We don't even know if he will be fit yet and even if he is Pellegrini will ease him back in. The earliest I see myself getting him is GW15.
This.
GW 14 is my planned Aguero move.
He'll make a sub appearance in GW 13 imo.
I'll get him when he's fit. Simple.
Bench one. 🙄
Sanchez(TOT) - KDB(avl) - Mane(sun) - Wijnaldum(bou) - Mahrez(WAT)
Peelle(sun) - Bony(avl) - Lukaku(whm)Wijnaldum.
Wij, imo.
I have Lukaku but I am waiting for it to burn my arse.
It has to be Wijnaldum imo
Wijnaldum every week.
Wow that's a horrible one
Wijnaldum
Hey guys, comments on my team for GW12:
Myhill
Bellerin(doubtful) Toby Van Dijk
KDB Sanchez Mahrez Payet
Pelle Martial Vardy
Any transfers i should be looking at, i got 2 FT with 3.9 itb.
Thinking Martial and Myhill out?Martian needs to be Lukaku or Bony.
Martian needs to come back to Earth
Martian is a bloody good film.
I heard. Will catch it sometime.
Agree guys, leaning more towards Lukaku based on fixtures, and perhaps bringing Aguero back in later, thoughts on GK situation, got Myhill and Hennesey
Darmian owners!
-Rojo would only save me .2
-Valencia injured
-Valencia possibly not no.1 (any insight here would be grand)
-MUN defensive cover an excellent option over the coming weeks
HELP NEEDED!
My defence is in tatters once again. Splashed the cash all over and don't like my defence structure. Too many expensive defs with zero attacking potential and no cs potential aswell.
Kolarov - Darmian- Williams - Toby - Richards.
Going to play AoA this week and have 1.2 itb.
Is Darmian -> Moreno good move for this week and for long term?
Would want to have ManU defender but Smalling is too expensive for my taste and not sure about Rojo is he nailed?Rojo
is he nailed tough?
Yeah seems to be
but when Jones is fit doesn't he start instead?
Jones starts as CB..
Young/Valencia/Darmain -- Smalling -- Jones -- RojoThanks Moin 🙂
So Rojo over Moreno this week?definitely!
A very good video on West Ham's early season form. It's very stats heavy but he makes some relevant points, also, the comments from angry West Ham fans are pretty funny.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2Ggk_P0fYM+1, he's always a great listen,
Arsenal fans in particular would do well to listen to his take on Arsenal's striker situation & why Giroud's an exceptional player.+1 just for the comments 😀
I'm looking to transfer out Darmian>> Moreno, I'm currently selling Darmian @ 5.6, does Moreno play any part in Liverpools Europe Cup? Darmian currently -60% to drop will I be safe to wait till Thursday to make this transfer? Thanks in advance
I would just suck it up and take the drop. Atleast I will.
Not interested in Rojo and maybe Moreno after City game? Altough Moreno''s attacking stats are promising.I do want united defence cover and will be looking at Stekelenburg>> DDG in s few weeks
Wilson, Gradel, Mings...
Significant losses for BOU. Could have been a different story.yup
Just to play devil's advocate...
None of them would actually have stopped them conceding all these goals. Mings wasn't even first choice when he got injuredYeah true, but I think he would have emerged as a mainstay at LB/CB, particularly at 8m.
The opposition would have also had a significant boost in not seeing them on the teamsheet too.God I still can't believe they paid 8m for him, he's really not that good
Yeah fair enough, I think Gradel especially had a lot more to show
Any news on Souare?
What to do? 1FT 2.5 ITB
Any Suggestions?
Butland
Kolarov,Alderweireld,Dawson
Sanchez,Payet,Mahrez,KDB,Mane
Pelle,Vardy
Bench McCarthy,Martial,Ward,Targett
