Welcome to my latest look to see if the bookies’ odds can help predict player form and match results.

Captaincy Options

The names on the left-hand side are the leaders in FFScout’s captaincy poll (at time of writing), while on the right are the bookies’ fraction bets to score. On the far right are the decimal odds.

1. Mesut Ozil                  1. Sergio Aguero (EVS) 2.00
2. Romelu Lukaku           2. Graziano Pelle (11/10) 2.10
3. Eden Hazard              3. Eden Hazard (23/20) 2.15
4. Sergio Aguero             4. Harry Kane (6/5) 2.20
5. Jamie Vardy                5. Romelu Lukaku (5/4) 2.25
6. Odion Ighalo               6. Jamie Vardy (11/8) 2.37
7. Kevin De Bruyne         7. Mesut Ozil (7/5) 2.40
8. Harry Kane                 8. Odion Ighalo (6/4) 2.50
9. Philippe Coutinho        9. Philippe Coutinho (7/4) 2.75
10. Graziano Pelle           10. Kevin De Bruyne (23/10) 3.30

This week sees a classic case of form vs fixtures; the three shortest priced options, according to the bookies, are the most likely to score. Sergio Aguero (stk) may not even play, Graziano Pelle (AVL) comes back from suspension but has little form and Eden Hazard (BOU) has not scored for a long time and Chelsea are still yet to get going. Is this the week they come to life? Not at those prices.

Captaincy Analysis:

1. Jamie Vardy (swa) – An away trip to Swansea would usually be a difficult proposition for any team but recently, Swansea are simply not at the races. The key point in this game is how Monk will set his team up. The fans will certainly not be expecting a defensive display and this could play straight into Leicester’s hands. Vardy coming up against Ashley Williams and co. should only end one way. A decent armband choice this week, especially with his consecutive scoring record still going.
2. Odion Ighalo (NOR) – I was all set on going for Mesut Ozil but with Santi Cazorla and Alexis Sanchez seemingly out for the Gunners, Odion Ighalo comes to the fore. His fruitful partnership with Troy Deeney continues to be profitable for Watford and I’m expecting this to continue against a leaky Norwich side. The man is in the form of his life right now and when Watford score, he’s involved. A great shout for the armband this week in my opinion.

Clean Sheets

(in order, decimals on the right):

Arsenal (4/5) 1.80

Man Utd (17/20) 1.85

Southampton (17/20) 1.85

Chelsea (11/10) 2.10

Liverpool (11/8) 2.37

Man City (11/8) 2.37

Tottenham (7/5) 2.40

Watford (17/10) 2.70

Everton (9/5) 2.80

Leicester (12/5) 3.40

Swansea (11/4) 3.75

Norwich (14/5) 3.80

West Brom (3/1) 4.00

Crystal Palace (16/5) 4.20

Stoke (4/1) 5.00

Aston Villa (9.2) 5.50

Newcastle (9/2) 5.50

West Ham (5/1) 6.00

Bournemouth (6/1) 7.00

Sunderland (17/2) 9.50

The Matches

Odds for each team to win in brackets followed by a score prediction and mini-analysis:

Stoke (19/5) vs Man City (7/10) – 1-2 – No Vincent Kompany, no clean sheet. It really is that simple when it comes to assessing the Manchester City defence. Stoke have been solid at home recently but the quality of City will ulitimately shine through with Kevin De Bruyne continuing to pull the strings as City concede once again.

Southampton (½) vs Aston Villa (6/1) – 2-0 – I really fear for Aston Villa. Where are the goals going to come from? Boss Remi Garde surely cannot wait till the January window, but until then, his side will no doubt return to recent form and put up a fight in the first half but collapse in the second. Southampton are better than their opponents all over the pitch and are expected to win convincingly.

Man Utd (4/9) vs West Ham (13/2) – 2-0 – Attack attack attack! Somehow Man United are getting over the line in games but my god are they boring to watch. Luckily for Man Utd, Dimitri Payet is out for West Ham and without him, the onus falls on Manuel Lanzini to produce the spark in a team that is also likely to be without striker Diafra Sakho. With Andy Carroll likely to come back into contention, a home win and clean sheet looks good for the Red Devils.

Swansea (7/4) vs Leicester (6/4) – 1-3 – I look at Swansea and wonder what on earth is going on. The likes of Bafetembi Gomis, Gylfi Sigurdsson and Jefferson Montero, who were performing so brilliantly at the start of the season, are now being benched. With their replacements performing poorly, Leicester’s Riyad Mahrez and especially Vardy are expected to keep Foxes’ party going.

West Brom (3/1) vs Tottenham (10/11) – 0-2 – Tottenham look great defensively right now and only a stubborn Chelsea side kept them at bay from an attacking point of view. Which West Brom defence will turn up: the one that plays for 0-0 or the side that concedes a hatful of goals? The bookies are predicting the latter and I’m agreeing with them on this occasion.

Watford (21/20) vs Norwich (13/5) – 3-1 – The stats point to a home win, with Ighalo and Deeney getting in on the action. Norwich man Robbie Brady has been in impressive form recently and will need to be if the Canaries are to get anything out of this game.

Arsenal (1/4) vs Sunderland (10/1) – 2-1- No Cazorla, no Sanchez. Ozil needs to step up and run the game as Sunderland have improved their defensive displays of late and I don’t predict this to be as easy as people are making it out to be. They will, however, just have enough quality to get the three points, and sneak past the large parked bus Sunderland boss Sam Allardyce has promised to bring with him to London.

Chelsea (2/5) vs Bournemouth (13/2) – 2-2 – Now people will say I’m crazy for predicting this scoreline, you may well be right. However, Chelsea are still not together as a team. Cesc Fabregas looks like he’s had one too many in recent games – drinks, that is, not goals. Meanwhile, striker Diego Costa has been throwing his bibs out the pram after being benched last week. To put Chelsea’s malaise in perspective, Barcalona’s Neymar has scored 26 times since Eden Hazard last introduced a ball to the back of the net. Who’s going to score? Willian currently looks the best bet with his free kicks.

As for Bournemouth they showed great tenacity in earning a draw against Everton and certainly have enough gumption to give Chelsea’s back line a torrid time. All this combined and I see Jose Mourinho being right back at square one in his mission to improve the Londoners, with a score draw a very real possibility here.

Newcastle (19/5) vs Liverpool (7/10) – 0-2 – Liverpool have enough quality all over the pitch, with Jordan Henderson and Daniel Sturridge also likely to feature after long injury lay-offs. Newcastle simply don’t create enough chances and will need Papiss Cisse to play to have any hope of a goal. A comfortable victory looks on the cards for Liverpool.

Everton (21/20) vs Crystal Palace (5/2) – 2-2 – This has the potential to be the game of the week. Everton are on a sizzling run of form playing a Palace side that is notoriously better away from Selhurst Park. This fixture has ended 2-3 to Palace for the last two seasons. With history and form as my guide, I predict goals, and lots of them.

Tip: Vardy anytime + Ighalo anytime + Man United clean sheet @ 11/1

Last Week’s Predictions

Finally, a quick look back to see how last week’s predictions fared.

Gameweek 14

• 5 of the top 10 FFScout captaincy options delivered attacking returns this week
• Only 1 (Liverpool) of the top 5 most likely to keep a clean sheet did just that with only four clean sheets all Gameweek.
• A continuing trend of a lack of clean sheets continues with an unpredictable nature where they are coming from (big teams are conceding just as much as ‘small’ teams).
• Romelu Lukaku did the business with Olivier Giroud letting down the highlighted captaincy options