Every week Fantasy Football Scout produces a trio of low-owned punts in its Spot the Differential articles. But how much more should we be using these articles to shape our teams? In this analysis I look back at each of the articles’ trio of predicted high scorers to see how they did in terms of Fantasy Premier League points that week and for the following four Gameweeks.
Here is Gameweeks 11-16. Part 1 dealing with Gameweeks 1-5 can be found here, while Part 2, focusing on Gameweeks 6-10 can be found here.
Gameweek 11
Olivier Giroud (Arsenal)
Gameweek 11 – 6 points (1 goal)
Gameweek 11-15 – 21 points (3 goals 1 own goal)
Giroud’s form throughout the season has been overshadowed by that of teammates Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez, amongst others. Nevertheless he emerged as a great pick both for this week and as a long term punt. Still only owned by 14% of managers he rewarded investors with a goal in this Gameweek and then three more over the next five games. He is currently on 82 points, with 47 of them coming after Gameweek 11 giving this differential an average of nearly five points a game since featuring in this article series.
Jeffrey Schlupp (Leicester)
Gameweek 11 – 1 point
Gameweek 11-15 – 4 points
Defender Schlupp had been utilised as a left wing or No10 under Foxes boss Claudio Ranieri from the beginning of the season and this continued into Gameweek 11. However, Leicester conceded twice and Schlupp only gained 1 point. It then got worse. Loss of form saw him slip out of the starting 11 and he has collected a sad four points since featuring as a Spot the Differential. Undoubtedly one of the poorest picks in this series so far.
Moussa Dembele (Tottenham)
Gameweek 11 – 9 points (1 goal 1clean sheet 1BP)
Gameweek 11-15 – 17 points (1 goal)
After a goal against Bournemouth in Gameweek 10 Dembele was pleased to welcome struggling Aston Villa to White Hart Lane. There was an instant return on investment after once again finding the net. But since then injury has curtailed a strong run, with Dele Alli becoming the better prospect. Dembele has mustered not a single other attacking return since Gameweek 11.
Gameweek 12
Willian (Chelsea)
Gameweek 12 – 2 points
Gameweek 12-16 – 11 points
Set piece specialist Willian looked like the best option as the champions came into a very kind run of fixtures. Although he was Chelsea’s second highest scorer throughout Gameweek 12-20, after Branislav Ivanovic, his returns have been a shadow of what they could have been had Chelsea been firing on full cylinders.
Matt Ritchie (Bournemouth)
Gameweek 12 – 2 points
Gameweek 12-16 – 18 points (2 assists)
After a goal and an assist in Bournemouth’s three games prior to Gameweek 11 Ritchie appeared to be finding some of the form that had seen him set the Championship alight the previous year. However, he failed to maintain this form and his two points this Gameweek became a common theme as Josh King and Junior Stanislas emerged as a far better, and far cheaper options for those looking for a Bournemouth midfielder.
Moussa Sissoko (Newcastle)
Gameweek 12 – 3 points (1 clean sheet)
Gameweek 12-16 – 15 points (1 assist)
Newcastle have at times looked like they were turning round their poor run of form under Steve McClaren – however this has not been the case. After the magpies 6-2 demolition of Norwich in Gameweek 9 and a fairly kind run of fixtures up ahead it appeared that Sissoko could be in for some long awaited FPL points . Sadly though he has only registered attacking returns once in the last 10 Gameweeks and was not the differential the Scouts had hoped he would be.
Gameweek 13
Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)
Gameweek 13 – 6 points (1 goal)
Gameweek 13-17 – 10 points (1 goal)
In Gameweek 11 Aguero was perhaps the only shining light in Manchester City’s 4-1 thrashing by Liverpool as his six FPL points giving Fantasy managers hope that their talisman had returned for good. However, his arch nemesis the treatment table put paid to that though with sporadic starts since due to injury. Having said that he looks to be back to full fitness and could soon be arguably essential.
Christian Eriksen (Tottenham)
Gameweek 13 – 10 points (2 assists 2BP)
Gameweeks 13-17 – 23 points (3 assists)
Although he gave those that brought him in 10 points in Gameweek 13, he has only delivered attacking returns once more in the seven games since – an assist against Newcastle in Gameweek 16. As with Dembele he has been outshone by his team mate Dele Alli.
Josh King (Bournemouth)
Gameweek 13 – 7 points (1 goal)
Gameweeks 13-17 – 25 points (2 goals 1 assist)
Against a run of difficult fixtures King managed an average of 5 PPG over between Gameweeks 13-17. Injury curtailed that but he remains a good long term pick for the Spot the Differential series.
Gameweek 14
Adam Lallana (Liverpool)
Gameweek 14 – 3 points
Gameweeks 14-18 – 13 points (1 assist)
Both Lallana and Liverpool have not quite lived up to expectations under Jurgen Klopp. Lallana has two assists since blanking in Gameweek 4.
Dan Gosling (Bournemouth)
Gameweek 14 – 1 point
Gameweeks 14-18 – 16 points (1 assist)
Bournemouth have proved a popular destination for the Spot the Differential series. Gameweek 14 saw the third Cherries midfielder featured in as many weeks. Although not as prolific as King, Gosling outscored many pricier players in the five GWs after his selection to prove himself as a decent fifth midfield pick.
Troy Deeney (Watford)
Gameweek 14 – 11 points (1 goal 1 assist 3BP)
Gameweeks 14-18 – 37 points (3 goals 3 assists)
Overlooked due to his more prolific team mate Odion Ighalo, Deeney has nevertheless proved a canny pick for the Spot the Differential articles. He delivered a double digit haul to those who selected him this Gameweek with more points to follow. Over Gameweeks 14 to 18 he averaged a hugely impressive 7.4 points per game average to make him the poster boy of this section of the Spot the Differential analysis.
Gameweek 15
Eden Hazard (Chelsea)
Gameweek 15 – 2 points
Gameweeks 15-19 – 6 points
Who? Last year’s Player of the Year that’s who. Its a different story this season though. He managed a pathetic six points over this Gameweek and the next four. Now injured he has even been stripped of penalty duties to make him a shadow of his former self.
Aaron Ramsey (Arsenal)
Gameweek 15 – 13 points (1 goal 1 assist 3BP)
Gameweeks 15 -19 – 30 points (2 goals 1 assist)
Ramsey delivered an immediate return on investment and for a short period of time before Christmas proved a great option. However, over the festive fixtures goals and assists alluded him. His tally over this Gameweek and the next four of 30 FPL points is good but his owners, arguably, expected much, much more.
Daniel Sturridge (Liverpool)
Gameweek 15 – 1 point
Gameweek 15-19 – 1 point
Another injury victim. With Sturridge this is always likely to be the case though. He made a brief return in this Gameweek only to spend the bulk of the next five fixtures on the treatment table.
Gameweek 16
Theo Walcott (Arsenal)
Gameweek 16 – 6 points (1 assist 1 clean sheet)
Gameweeks 16-20 – 21 points (1 goal 1 assist)
Walcott was a great out of position differential at the beginning of the season and many hoped he would resume that position upon his return from injury. However, Giroud’s fine form has kept him out wide and this has limited his rewards.
Raheem Sterling (Manchester City)
Gameweek 16 – 1 point
Gameweek 16-20 – 12 points ( 1 goal)
The £49 million man Sterling is yet to live up to his price tag as we saw in this Gameweek where he was hauled off at half time for a poor performance. He managed a solitary goal across over the next four Gameweeks.
Bojan Krkic (Stoke)
Gameweek 16 – 2 points
Gameweeks 16-20 – 29 points (2 goals 2 assists)
This is now the third time we have seen Bojan in Spot the Differential. Although he failed to deliver in this week he has proved a canny purchase, delivering a 5.8 PPG over his five matches from Gameweek 16.
Conclusion
I’ve set 5.5 points per game over the five game period from selection as the threshold for long term success. Four out of the 18 picks in this article were able to meet that, which gives the Scouts a one in five success rate, the same as in Gameweeks 1-10.
A key factor in the figure not being higher was the selection of injury plagued players such as Sturridge, who was never likely to reward investors long-term. Another was perhaps opting for name before form, with Hazard and Walcott amongst those who failed to live up to their star billing.
But there were some notable successes. Deeney proved a shrewd long term pick, who was overlooked by many due to Ighalo’s fine form.
It is as a guide to short term form where this period proved particularly successful for the Scouts. Eight out of 18 produced immediate returns of at least five points, up on the one in three success rate achieved in Gameweeks 1-10. For those looking for a one week punt Spot the Differential is proving to be a good source of inspiration.
