Spot the Differential Analysis – Part 2

Every week Fantasy Football Scout produces a trio of low-owned punts in its Spot the Differential articles. But how much more should we be using these articles to shape our teams? In this analysis I will look back at each of the articles’ trio of predicted high scorers to see how they did in terms of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points that week and beyond. Here is Gameweeks 6-10, which also includes my conclusions on how Spot the Differential fared over the first ten Gameweeks. My look at Gameweeks 1-5 can be found here. A look at Gameweeks 11 to 20 is also being planned. 

Gameweek 6

Dele Alli (Tottenham)

As Jamie Vardy was the poster boy for the Spot the Differential articles in Gameweeks 1-5, here the Scouts were once again spot on. We should have listened, as he cost just 4.9 this week. Now in Gameweek 20 he is among the most popular picks after taking on a more advanced role that the Scouts picked up on way back in this Gameweek. He scored just three points in FPL this week, but currently sits on 82 points and has racked up two goals and two assists in his last four games. Another success for this article series.

Bojan Krkic (Stoke)

You wait for weeks for another good differential and two come at once. As well as spotting Alli’s promise the Scouts were also amongst the first to back the talent of Stoke’s young forward. Those that listened got an instant reward and plenty more. He collected eight FPL points in this Gameweek, with a goal and full bonus points, and has collected 66 points throughout the season.

Darryl Janmaat (Newcastle)

Newcastle’s defender offered promise to his new owners this week with a goal and bonus points to deliver a handsome eight FPL points. But while the Scouts were right to back him in Gameweek 6 this ended up being his highest weekly tally. He sits on 42 points, which is a poor total considering he’s played in all but one game this season for the Magpies.

Gameweek 7

Victor Moses (West Ham)

After two goals in two games the article series had strong form to back up its decision to choose Victor Moses. With Norwich the visitors to Upton Park what could go wrong? Plenty as it turned out. He was benched this week and managed a single FPL point. Injury and stiff competition from the likes of Manuel Lanzini have since conspired to bring in a pathetic tally of just 30 points. A dreadful pick.

Theo Walcott (Arsenal)

A favourite of Fantasy veterans, the Arsenal midfielder scored this Gameweek to deliver instant returns, but was still overshadowed by Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez. This has turned out to be the story of this season so far. Injury once again blighted him and he has proved an inconsistent purchase that is placed way down the shopping lists of those looking for Arsenal attacking assets.

Juan Mata (Manchester United)

With a goal, an assist and a 14-point FPL haul he proved a canny selection for the series this Gameweek. But since then he has proved a poor choice, mustering just one more goal, in Gameweek 9. He sits on a very good 84 FPL points this season but the bulk of those were prior to his selection in this article series.

Gameweek 8

Daniel Sturridge (Liverpool)

Having scored twice the week before, Sturridge looked primed to run rampant against Everton this Gameweek. He didn’t and then has spent most of the remaining Gameweeks on the treatment table.

Erik Lamela (Tottenham)

Form drove the decision to opt for Lamela this week, having notched up 12 FPL points the Gameweek before against Manchester City. However, he proved a big let-down. In Gameweek 8 he went off after 56 minutes and performed poorly. Despite flashes of brilliance since he sits on 61 points, scoring just twice more and mustering a solitary assist.

Saido Berahino (West Brom)

Somehow the Scouts managed to select the only week in a four-game run where he didn’t score. This disappointment continued for those that drafted him in as he lost his place in the starting XI as speculation over his future overshadowed his footballing ability. He sits on just 42 points for the season.

Gameweek 9

Diego Costa (Chelsea)

After the disappointment of Gameweek 8 for the Scouts there was joy this week as Costa rewarded their selection with a goal, an assist and three bonus points in Gameweek 9. However, as the malaise at Chelsea continued, Costa managed just another goal during the dying days of the Jose Mourinho regime. That may all change now though as under Gus Hiddink he once again emerges as a good selection, with two double-digit hauls in his last four matches to bring his total to 67. Given his recent form he is likely to be elevated beyond mere differential status for future Gameweeks and be a regular in the Scout Picks.

Dusan Tadic (Southampton)

A five-point return this week was adequate and as we saw in the previous article he has proved a reliable source of under-the-radar points.

Aleksandar Mitrovic (Newcastle)

The Newcastle striker managed one of his three goals for the season in this Gameweek to complete a hat-trick of successes for those looking for a short term punt. As a long-term pick though he has flopped, and now sits on just 39 points.

Gameweek 10

Bojan Krkic (Stoke)

The Stoke man is back again. He failed to deliver this Gameweek but remains a steady-scoring good long-term pick (see above).

Alex Oxlade Chamberlain (Arsenal)

Another returning name to the Spot the Differential series. He once again failed to deliver and remains a poor-long term pick.

Yannick Bolasie (Crystal Palace)

Although he blanked during this Gameweek he ended up being a canny investment for those that followed the article series this week. Between Gameweeks 12 and 16 he brought in a respectable 32 points, including a 15-point haul in Gameweek 15. He sits on 61 points and is currently injured.

Conclusion

Over the first ten Gameweeks an average of one differential per week delivered a return of four FPL points or more. This shows that the article series has strong potential to deliver short-term results to investors.

Looking at how they performed overall I’ve put 70 FPL points as the threshold for a successful season so far. With this in mind six of the 30 picked have proved shrewd long-term investments. Among these Jamie Vardy, Dele Alli and Kevin De Bruyne are the stand-out successes for this article series.

As a predictor of points there is healthy one in three chance of immediate success by picking one of the Scouts’ differentials. This dips to one in five in terms of picking a long-term high scorer. I will also look at Gameweeks 10 to 20 soon to see if a similar conclusion can be drawn and to see whether this series gets better or worse at picking punts.