Spot the Differential Analysis – Part 1

Every week Fantasy Football Scout produces a trio of low-owned punts in its Spot the Differential articles. But how much more should we be using these articles to shape our teams? In this analysis I will look back at each of the articles’ trio of predicted high scorers to see how they did in terms of Fantasy Premier League points that week and beyond. Here is Gameweeks 1-5. Watch out for Part 2, detailing Gameweeks 6-10 later this week.

Gameweek 1

Dusan Tadic (Southampton)

The differentials for the first Gameweek of the season were always going to be a difficult task but Tadic did reasonably well with an assist and a bonus point to give him a score of six. Throughout the season he has been fairly consistent, even producing  some big hauls, most notably against Norwich in Gameweek 4 when he notched up 16 points. He is currently Southampton’s highest scoring player and 23rd highest scorer overall, so a real success for the article series.

Kevin Mirallas (Everton)

Another winger that got two points this Gameweek. He then went on to lose his place in the side and currently sits on just 15 points.

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (Arsenal)

Only managed two FPL points in that week after a great Community Shield performance. He has gone on to lose his place in the side to Joel Campbell and only made sporadic substitute appearances. He is currently only on 29 points.

Gameweek 2

Nacer Chadli (Tottenham)

The midfielder scored a goal and earned a bonus point to finish Gameweek 2 with a respectable FPL score of eight. He proved a canny pick this week. However, as a long term asset he failed to push on. After an assist in Gameweek 3 he lost his place to Erik Lamela and with Son Heung-min joining and Dele Alli excelling in an attacking role he moved further down the pecking order.  He is currently on just 33 points.

Jeremain Lens (Sunderland)

After a five-point score in Gameweek 1, Lens earneda  selection in the article series and rewarded FFScout’s faith with another assist. However, he also got a yellow card and finished on just four points. He did reward those who drafted him in with a good run in form early on in the season. However, his red card in Gameweek 8 and a falling out of favour with new manager Sam Alladyce proved disastrous for his prospects. He currently sits on just 36 points.

Rudy Gestede (Aston Villa)

After he scored the winning goal in Aston Villa’s last Premier League victory – their Gameweek 1 win over Bournemouth, he looked a great differential going into Manchester United’s visit to Villa Park. However, Tim Sherwood did not start Gestede and he only received one point in a 0-0 bore draw. His only other goals and significant points this season came in Villa’s Gameweek 7 loss to Liverpool. Two goals for the Benin frontman gave him 13 points including three bonus that week. But he has failed to build on that, and now has just 46 points overall.

Gameweek 3

Aaron Ramsey  (Arsenal)

Arsenal played out a 0-0 draw as Liverpool visited the Emirates, giving the Arsenal midfielder just three points. This became a familiar pattern for the rest of the season, with double-digit hauls in Gameweeks 15 and 16 the only bright sparks in a campaign that has yielded 63 points, way behind his team mate Mesut Ozil’s tally of 131.

Nathan Redmond (Norwich)

The midfielder was a real success this Gameweek, with an assist and three bonus points greeting those who drafted him in. Since then though his points have dried up and after 24 points in his first three games we have seen him collect just 42 more to take his total to 66. For his price that is satisfactory but certainly not outstanding.

Xherdan Shaqiri (Stoke)

He was another success, delivering seven points to his owners. The rest of the season, however, has seen little returns until his next set of attacking points in Gameweek 15 and his first league goals in Gameweek 19. He dazzled that week and while sitting on 59 points overall, he could still prove a canny purchase for the second half of the season.

Gameweek 4

Max Gradel (Bournemouth)

Oh poor Gradel. He looked so good against West Ham in Gameweek 3, and served up five points before tearing his cruciate ligament in this match and finding himself sidelined for the rest of the season.  A good choice for this week, marred by a devastating injury.

Jack Grealish (Aston Villa)

The Aston Villa midfielder was another disastrous punt. He didn’t even start this Gameweek and despite scoring in Gameweek 5 lost his place soon after as headlines about his night life soon replaced those about his footballing skills. He sits on just 24 points and doesn’t look like finding his way back into a lacklustre Villa side anytime soon.

Eric Dier (Tottenham)

He rewarded the Scouts’ selection immediately this week with a clean sheet and has gone on to be an integral part of the Spurs midfield, despite being listed as a defender by FPL. He is currently on 74 points and is Spurs’ second highest scoring defender. He marks a real success for the Spot the Differential article series.

Gameweek 5

Kevin De Bruyne (Manchester City)

Although Manchester City’s big-money signing served up just three points this week, he followed this up with a goal the following week. As a long term prospect the Spot the Differential series was spot on here as he now sits on 94 points and is 13th in the overall points standings.

Jamie Vardy (Leicester)

Surely the differential pick of the season? Vardy currently sits fifth in the overall points rankings having scored in 11 consecutive Premier League games. Although his form has dipped in recent weeks in Gameweek 5 he delivered an immediate return for investors with a goal. Currently on 128 he moved from differential to essential swiftly after his selection this Gameweek by the Scouts.

Salomon Rondon (West Brom)

Rondon came from Russia with such promise, however, like his strike partner Saido Berahino, he has most definitely not lived up to expectations. After his Gameweek 4 goal, he failed to deliver this Gameweek and has only scored twice more so far this season. With a tally of 48 points he marks this Gameweek’s only long-term flop.