Our attentions turn to the upcoming fixture list this afternoon as we assess the strength of schedule. Given that we are midway through the current round of fixtures, our focus is from Gameweek 29-34, and with many sides facing blanks in Gameweek 30, the likes of Swansea and Man City presently look ripe for investment.
Swansea
The Swans’ next three opponents (NOR, bou, AVL) have shipped seven, five and 11 goals respectively in their last four matches, while Villa (13) have also conceded more big chances than any other side over the same period. Gylfi Sigurdsson (7.1) looks the stand-out attacking option, having scored five goals in his last eight outings, while he also has penalty duties in his locker. Andre Ayew (6.7) cannot be overlooked, though, whilst Alberto Paloschi (5.8) may also emerge as a budget forward option after opening his account for the Welsh side in Sunday’s 2-1 defeat to Tottenham. The matches away to Stoke and Newcastle also look fairly favourable, with the Potters allowing 12 big chances in their last four matches, while Newcastle have conceded 10 goals in their last four outings. Arguably, that leaves the home clash against Chelsea in Gameweek 33 as the only difficult fixture over the coming period.
Again, all the fixtures bar the Chelsea match appear fairly favourable from a defensive point of view, with all five opponents featuring among the 10 sides who have registered the fewest shots from inside the box over their respective last four matches. Villa and Stoke also fall down when looking at the big chances created, managing two and three respectively over the last same period, while Norwich have failed to net in their last three on the road. Bournemouth and Newcastle have only scored three goals apiece from their last four matches, so the prospects of defensive returns do look fairly positive over the coming weeks. Ashley Williams (4.8) looks the obvious target given his ability to pick up bonus points, bagging 17 so far this term, the most among defenders along with Charlie Daniels and Bacary Sagna.
Southampton
The Saints have been struggling for goals of late, scoring just four in their last six matches, but the home matches against Sunderland and Newcastle should provide good opportunities to turn around their fortunes. Sam Allardyce has managed to tighten things up at the back, though, with Sunderland only letting in six goals in their last four, while they’ve also only allowed four big chances over the same period. That fixture may not be as favourable as it first appears then. Of Southampton’s other four fixtures on the current slate, the trip to Stoke looks the most favourable, with the Potters ranked in the top six over the last four matches for goals conceded, shots from inside the box and big chances allowed. Everton are one of the in-form backlines with just two goals conceded in their last four, though, with the Liverpool and Leicester fixtures also appearing fairly difficult, with the Reds conceding the fewest number of shots from inside the box (14), while Leicester have only conceded five goals in their last four matches. Interest in Saints’ attackers may remain fairly limited then given their current form, with Shane Long (5.7) perhaps looking the strongest option provided the knee injury he suffered last night doesn’t keep him out of Saturday’s match against Sunderland. With Charlie Austin sidelined for a number of weeks now, Graziano Pelle could be handed a run of start up top again.
When assessing the defensive prospects, the Newcastle clash looks the stand-out fixture – Steve McClaren’s side have only scored two goals in their last five matches on the road. Their north east rivals Sunderland have only failed to score in two of their last nine, though, so a clean sheet this weekend looks far from guaranteed. The matches against Leicester, Liverpool and Everton all look fairly difficult, with the Toffees and Foxes ranked first and joint-second respectively for big chances created over the last four matches with 15 and 13, while Liverpool have scored more goals (13) than any other side over the same period. The trip to Stoke in Gameweek 30 looks fairly reasonable, though, with Mark Hughes’ men having failed to score in two of their last three at the Britannia. Fraser Forster (5.0) and Virgil van Dijk (5.6) look decent options then, particularly in the short-term with so many teams facing a blank in Gameweek 30.
Man City
City’s FA Cup exit means they face a very favourable trip to Norwich in Gameweek 30, with the Canaries defensive statistics pretty abject as already mentioned. Likewise, the home encounter against Aston Villa on Saturday is also very favourable from an attacking perspective, while Bournemouth have conceded seven goals in their last four home matches in all competitions. The visit of West Brom also looks fairly favourable, with the Baggies conceding four goals in their last two matches. The matches against Chelsea and to a lesser extent Man United are trickier, but with their previously postponed trip to Newcastle expected to be rearranged and slot into Gameweek 34, when City also travel to Chelsea, the prospects for the likes of Sergio Aguero (13.4) look very bright over the next month or so. David Silva (9.8) could yet emerge as a differential for the run in, particularly if Yaya Toure (8.4) fails to shake off a minor foot problem, but news of a return to full fitness for Kevin de Bruyne (10.3) in early April may see some Fantasy managers wait until then to double up on the City attack.
As already touched upon, the goal threat offered by Villa and Norwich has been pretty limited of late. After last night’s matches, the clashes against Bournemouth and West Brom perhaps look slightly more testing, with the Cherries managing to score twice against a Southampton backline that has generally been very stout over the last month or so, while the return of Saido Berahino to the West Brom starting XI seems to have reinvigorated the Baggies as an attacking force, having scored six goals in their last three matches. Chelsea and, to a slightly lesser extent, Man United seem to be improving in front of goal, with the Blues finding the back of the net 10 times in their last four matches. Those matches may not yield defensive points, then, but with two favourable fixtures up next and the likelihood of a double in Gameweek 34, we may see some investment in Joe Hart (5.5) and Vincent Kompany (6.1).
Also Consider…
Norwich
Canaries defenders have barely been on the radar of Fantasy managers bar Russell Martin’s prolific start to the campaign, but with four pretty favourable matches (wba, NEW, cpl, SUN) between Gameweeks 31 and 34, they could provide with some handy budget differentials. Martin is available at 4.2 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), and looks the man most likely to produce points amongst the Norwich backline.
Those four matches, along with Saturday’s trip to Swansea should also be pretty favourable from an attacking perspective, with none of those teams in great form at the back. Nonetheless, FPL bosses are still highly unlikely to look to Carrow Road for attacking assets, though Nathan Redmond is perhaps one to monitor – having started the last three matches, he netted in last night’s 2-1 defeat to Chelsea.
Leicester
None of the Foxes next six matches (wat, NEW, cpl, SOT, sun, WHM) look really unfavourable, so those who have been rolling with both Jamie Vardy (7.8) and Riyad Mahrez (7.3) look unlikely to change their plans. Watford have conceded 39 shots from inside the box in their last four matches, the fourth most among all 20 sides, while Crystal Palace have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last nine matches.
The clashes against Watford, Newcastle and Southampton look the most favourable of the next six from a defensive standpoint, with those three clubs managing just eight goals between them over the last four matches. Once again, though, none of the fixtures look particularly treacherous, so owning a member of the Leicester backline looks a canny tactic over the coming weeks, with Christian Fuchs (4.9) and Robert Huth (4.7) the standout options.
Newcastle
The Magpies have won their last two home matches, and with Bournemouth, Sunderland and Swansea paying visit over the next six Gameweeks, it’s at St. James’ Park where Newcastle Fantasy assets should come into their own. Georginio Wijnaldum (6.9) has scored all nine of his goals on home turf, and could have added value should that Man City fixture be rearranged for Gameweek 34, providing a possible home double Gameweek (SWA, MCI). Only the trip to Norwich in Gameweek 32 looks favourable when assessing their away matches though (lei, nor, sot).
Having only kept one shut-out in their last six, Newcastle defenders probably aren’t high on our watchlists. With his added attacking potential, though, Daryl Janmaat (4.8) – having scored once and registered three assists so far this term – may attract some investment given those favourable home match-ups. Rob Elliot (4.0) may also be a viable option given his bargain price tag and the possibility of that double in Gameweek 34.
*** It’s also worth noting, though, that the upcoming schedule could be subject to change due to the domestic cup postponements that curtailed Gameweek 27 and are set to hit Gameweek 30 harder.
This popular hot topic concurs with our current line of thinking and could see up to eight teams handed doubles in Gameweek 34, whilst Gameweek 37 is expected to afford us six team with doubles to plan around.
Fantasy managers should also be aware of the likelihood of more blanks in Gameweek 35 – West Ham versus United has already been cancelled that week – which makes planning and preparing for every eventuality more vital than ever in order to navigate the tricky run-in.
