This article aims to help Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Managers in their choice for the best captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining form and fixtures.
Additionally, I have also included a ‘clean sheet potential’ table to help assess the Gameweek’s best defensive assets.
Before I take a look at Gameweek 25’s best captaincy targets, let’s have a quick recap on how I use form and fixtures to come to achieve this.
REFINING THE ODDS
For this method, I am going to take the top six most popular captaincy options and rank them 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (Sib) conceded from the last four games.
I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at total points per game, goals and assists over the last four games. The form table will include Home and Away PPG but these sections will only come into play in terms of the results when the total PPG of 2 players are the same.
The article includes the ‘clean sheet potential’ table, which is worked out with the form and fixtures elements from the captaincy section and then combined with clean sheet odds to give a total ranking based on clean sheet potential. This section will include the top five teams.
SUCCESS
What defines a successful captaincy pick according to this method? The ultimate success will be whether the top pick highlighted by the method is the top scorer of the six options from the FFS Captain poll. A monthly average will also be worked out to find the cumulative points to see if this method or the FFS Captain polls are proving to be more successful.
On a weekly basis, success will be defined as:
- Explosive = 10+ points
- Success = 7-9 points
- Average = 4-6 points
- Fail = no attacking returns
There will be a review article ready for next week.
Now let’s take a look at Gameweek 25’s results….
Form
| Rank | Player | Total PPG | Goals | Assists | Home PPG | Away PPG |
| 1. | Jesus* | 8.33 | 3 | 1 | 7 | – |
| 2. | Lukaku | 7.5 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 2 |
| 3. | Sigurdsson | 7 | 3 | 1 | 7.5 | 6.5 |
| 4. | Sanchez | 6.25 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6.5 |
| 5. | Ibrahimovic | 4.25 | 2 | 0 | 4.5 | 4 |
| 6. | Costa | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
Fixture
| Rank | Player | Fixture | Goals conceded | Big Chances Conceded | Goal attempts in box conceded | Total |
| 1. | Sigurdsson | Leicester (H) | 10 | 8 | 48 | 66 |
| 2. | Lukaku | Middlesbrough (A) | 5 | 10 | 40 | 55 |
| 3. | Costa | Burnley (A) | 4 | 5 | 44 | 53 |
| 4. | Jesus | Bournemouth (A) | 13 | 8 | 31 | 52 |
| 5. | Sanchez | Hull (H) | 3 | 7 | 34 | 44 |
| 6. | Ibrahimovic | Watford (H) | 4 | 3 | 32 | 39 |
Results
| Rank | Player | Fixture | Form | Total |
| 1.5 | Sigurdsson | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 1.5 | Lukaku | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 3. | Jesus | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| 4.5 | Costa | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 4.5 | Sanchez | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| 6. | Ibrahimovic | 6 | 5 | 11 |
What happens when two options end up on the same score?
| Player | Goals conceded last 4 H or A | Goals scored last 4 H or A | Total |
| Sigurdsson | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| Lukaku | 4 | 1 | 5 |
Goals conceded in last four opponents’ home or away fixtures + goals scored in players last four home or away games according to the gameweek fixture.
Taking form and fixtures into account, Gylfi Sigurdsson is most likely to deliver attacking returns, according to this method. He pips Romelu Lukaku to the top spot by virtue of each respective fixture’s form.
The Swansea man features third on the form table this week with a total of 7 points per game thanks to three goals and one assist in the last four game weeks. The Icelander leaps to the top of the fixture table this week, he faces a Leicester side who have conceded 10 goals, eight big chances and a table topping 48 goal attempts in the box.
*Gabriel Jesus finishes third in the results table this week, however, it’s worth pointing out that his statistics are only from the three games he has featured, one of which was for nine minutes only. He does, however, still sit atop the form table with an impressive 8.33 PPG from his 189 minutes of football so far, bagging three goals and one assist in the process. The Brazilian finishes fourth in the fixture table this week and it is worth mentioning that Bournemouth have conceded 13 goals in the last four weeks, more than Leicester. Only the Cherries low goal attempts in the box stops Jesus finishing higher in the table. The stats suggest Jesus could be a strong candidate for the armband this weekend.
This method offers caution when captaining Zlatan Ibrahimovic this weekend, the Manchester United forward finishes last in the results table. This two goals and no assists in the last four Gameweeks give him a total PPG of 4.25. The fixture table doesn’t make great reading for would be captainers either, as Watford have only conceded four goals, three big chances and 32 goal attempts in the box in the last four Gameweeks, which may suggest the Hornets are tightening up at the back. There’s further grim reading for backers of the big Swede as Manchester United have scored just 36 goals, the lowest of any top six side.
Clean Sheet Potential Table
| Rank | Team |
| 1. | Manchester United |
| 2. | Arsenal |
| 3. | Chelsea |
| 4. | Manchester City |
| 5. | Stoke City |
