What the Fixtures, Form and Clean Sheets Say – Gameweek 18

This article aims to help Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Managers in their choice for the best captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining form and fixtures.

Additionally, I have also included clean sheet odds to help assess the Gameweek’s best defensive assets.

In Gameweek 17, the model’s top pick, Christian Eriksen, frustratingly failed to deliver attacking returns in what was a well fought 2-1 win over Burnley.

This means that this strategy now has a six out of 10 success rate. (Success is derived from whether the model’s top pick delivers attacking returns or not. However, this will be reviewed, to see whether a new method of success can be found. Any suggestions are still most appreciated).

The clean sheet analysis fared much better, West Ham, Chelsea and Middlesbrough all featured inside the top five most likely to keep a clean sheet, according to the clean sheet method. Manchester United and Tottenham only conceded one goal each, to complete the top 5.

Before I take a look at Gameweek 18’s best captaincy targets, let’s have a quick recap on how I use form and fixtures to come to achieve this.

REFINING THE METHOD

The captaincy section will now focus completely on the form and fixtures elements and remove the odds section altogether.

For this method, I am going to take the 10 most popular captaincy options (at time of writing), according to the FFScout captaincy poll and rank them 1-10 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and goal attempts in the box conceded from the last four games.

I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at points per game, goals and assists over the last four games. This article will now factor in the players PPG from their last 2 home and last 2 away games respectively, higher weighting will be given according to the player’s fixture. Eg if a player is playing in an away fixture, their away PPG will be taken into account, if 2 players PPG’s are still the same, then the players total PPG will be taken into account.

The article will now include the ‘clean sheet potential’ table, which is worked out with the form and fixtures elements from the captaincy section and then combined with clean sheet odds to give a total ranking based on clean sheet potential. This section will include the top 10 teams.

With all that in mind, let’s take at Gameweek 18’s results

Fixture

Form

Results

Analysis

Taking form and fixtures into account, Gylfi Sigurdsson is the surprising, yet runaway leader to deliver attacking returns this Gameweek.

The dead ball specialist tops the fixture list as he welcomes a porous West Ham backline to the Liberty Stadium. The Hammers have conceded seven goals, given up eight big chances and allowed opponents 43 goal attempts in the box in the last four Gameweeks.

The Icelandic also tops the form table,  as his last two home appearances have returned an impressive 11.5 PPG. These factors combined makes him the standout captaincy option, according to this method.

Arsenal forward Alexis Sanchez offers this week’s form vs fixture dilemma.

His 9.5 home PPG catapults him to second in the form table. However, the Chilean faces a West Brom side who have only conceded five goals, six big chances and 26 goal attempts in the last four Gameweeks, which drops him to joint second lowest on the fixture table. It may be worth nothing that West Brom have only conceded nine goals in eight away games this season –  an impressive ratio of just 1.125.

This method urges caution when it comes to Zlatan Ibrahimovic this week.

The big Swede sits at a very surprising ninth overall in the results table and faces a Sunderland side that has conceded just five goals, five big chances and 35 goal attempts in the box in the last four Game weeks.

Interestingly Sunderland have only conceded 11 goals in eight away games all season, at a ratio of just 1.375. Added to this, the teams they have faced on their travels include Manchester City, Southampton, Tottenham, Liverpool and Bournemouth. The Swede has a home PPG of just 5.5, which sits him at seventh in the form list, perhaps enough to deter would be captainers this week.

Finally, here’s a look at the best defences to invest in for Gameweek 18, with Chelsea unsurprisingly at the summit. A Blues double up at the back could offer strong returns.

Clean Sheet Potential