MAN CITY STARTING XI

Team to play Tottenham: Ederson, Walker, Danilo, Kompany, Stones, Otamendi, Sterling, De Bruyne, Silva, Fernandinho, Jesus.

Some thoughts on why Firmino may not be a good choice that someoine I know who is a Liverpool fan whacked up a couple of days back. If it helps, buy me a sherry:

Comparison With Top Stirkers:

Goals: The subject of the debate! Firmino is well short on goals in comparison to the top strikers. Kane is out in front on his own, then the other three (Lukaku, Costa, Aguero) are in the 20-25 range, Firmino is dragging his heels way back on just 11.

Assists: No problem, Jurgen says it's because of all the assists he's making! Err, actually no it's not. He's just making the same number of assists as the top strikers. Good job here Roberto, you are keeping up with the best strikers here (got to put in the positives in case they are reading!), you just can't use it as an excuse for not scoring more (sorry!).

Key Passes: Okay, okay, he is is significantly ahead of the top strikers in key passes, so maybe Jurgen does have a point. The problem lies in the definition of Assists and Key Passes:

- Assist: A pass that directly leads to a chance scored by a teammate
- Key Pass: The final pass leading to a shot at goal from a teammate

So Assists are Key Passes and the difference in number between Assists and Key Passes is missed chances. Given Firmino matches the top strikers in Assists but has a lot more Key Passes means that he is the same at setting up goals as the others but also sets up a lot more chances that are not scored. Is that necessarily a good thing?

Position: Note these stats (from Whoscored) show PL data except for this info about position which includes other positions. But it gives an indication of players that play exclusively at striker versus those that play a variety of positions. This reflects that the top scorers play entirely as strikers whereas Firmino does often get shunted left and right side of someone else playing centrally (Sturridge or Origi). His stats for the different positions are:

- Striker: Games 20, Goals 6, Assists 6
- Forward Left: Games 8, Goals 3, Assists 0
- Forward Right: Games 6, Goals 1, Assists 1

Clearly Firmino's Assist capability is obliterated playing left or right. His goal rate is about the same however, his Games per Goal is 3.33 centrally and 3.50 when left or right. The stats suggest that while playing centrally more regularly would help Firmino, it's assists that would increase not goals. Full season he's and 11-12 goals, 11-12 assists striker.

Penalties: At first I thought Firmino might be lacking penalties, since give him Milners penalty duties and he could have scored 18-19 goals last season (assuming he's any good at them!). But only Kane significantly benefits from penalties. Take them out of the equation and the top strikers are still in the 19-24 goals zone while Firmino is stuck on 11.

Goal Situations: So why is he down on goals? At set pieces Firmino is at the standard of Kane and Lukaku which is good. Costa is clearly a set piece beast, no real surprise since he loves those tussles. Aguero is off the pace. On counter attacks, the others each managed 1 PL goal over the season whereas Firmino didn't. While that is therefore below standard it is just one goal and anyway while Opta/Whoscored obviously don't count the 4th goal v Leicester as a counter attack goal, I do (Mane burst down the left, beat Schmeichel to the ball and crossed for Firmino in the centre to sort his feet out and score past a couple of defenders.)

That leaves goals classed as open play. The top two are at 19-20 goals, Costa and Aguero are at 13 and 14 respectfully, Bobby is at 8. Which is well short.

Shots:

Note: In the PL, Penalty Area shots make up 52% of all shots, shots Outside the Box make up 41% and 6 yard box chances make up just 7% of all chances. However, 6 yard box chances are by far the easiest to score, with 34% hitting the back of the net. Penalty box chances are nearly 3 times less likely to be scored (only 13% go in) while long range efforts are yet another 4 times less likely to go in than penalty box chances (ie a 6 yard box chance is 12 times more likely to go in than a long range shot).

Klopp says, "What if he starts thinking ‘oh, I need more goals’ and starts shooting from all over the place...?". Actually shots aren't really his issue he takes plenty! Not as many as Aguero who is streets ahead of everyone, possibly why Pep is not keen on him. Aguero is shooting loads and not getting the goal return that might be expected. He's probably considered to be wasting possession when he should be more patient (Klopp is kind of suggesting Firmino does take the better, less shooting option).

From outside the box Firmino is on pace with the top strikers in terms of number of shots and crucially goals. Where he suffers is in two distinct areas:

1/. His shooting ability in the penalty area is less than 40% as effective as the top strikers. Firmino takes around the same number of shots as Kane and Lukaku but they score 2.5 times more often. So either his shooting is not good or he is still shooting when the probability of scoring is not good.
2/. Not getting into the 6 yard box. Firmino had 4-6 times less shots than every other top striker. No real surprise for all those who regularly scream about the fact we have no one in the middle of the goal as the ball crosses the 6 yard box!!

Summary

In comparison to the top strikers, while Firmino is not an out and out striker and his goal rate is about half what it ought to be, he doesn't create any more goals than the others do, but he does create more chances that are missed by others. He shoots as much as the others and from outside the penalty area he is equally effective, but inside the penalty area his shooting is poor and he fails to get enough chances in the 6 yard box.

Personally I think that means, he doesn't score enough to play as a striker. Sorry Jurgen, I know you love Bobby, but the evidence suggests that a top striker would create as many goals but score 2-2.5 times more.

Comparison With Top Wide Forwards/AMs

But okay, he's not an out and out striker, so how does he compare to the next group of high scorers, who happen to be high scoring wide forwards and AMs: Sanchez, Dele Ali and Hazard?

Goals: Firmino is roughly 50%-120% short of the goals supplied by the top scoring players that are not out and out strikers.
Assists: Firmino is on pace assist wise, level with Dele Ali, ahead of hazard and a bit behind Sanchez. That's pretty good.
Key Passes: Where Firmino was clearly ahead of the top strikers on Key Passes, he bang on the pace in this category. This tends to tie in with the view he's more of an AMC/No10 than a striker.

Position: Sanchez was utilised roughly the same as Firmino, centraly and left side. But where Firmino played right forward, Sanchez played as a central AMC/No10. Hazard also played forward left, but also deeper in the AMC/No10 role. Dele Ali played much more as an AMC.No10.

Penalties: Sanchez, Dele Ali and Hazard each scored penalties last season accounting for 1 or 2 goals each.
Goal Situations: Again at set pieces Firmino is at the standard of Sanchez which is good, while Dele Ali and Hazard lag behind. On counter attacks, Hazard sets the standard and everyone else is the same (if we credit Firmino's Leicester goal as a counter).

Again that leaves goals classed as open play. The top two have 15 and 18 goals, and Bobby's 8 is well short.

Shots:
As with the comparison against the top strikers, Firmino is not shot shy and his outside the box shooting is on pace. Then just the same as in the top striker comparison, he suffers in his shooting ability in the penalty area which is 50% less effective than the others and in the 6 yard box where he had 3-4 times less shots than Sanchez and Dele Ali. Hazard presumably seldom attacks the 6 yard box.

Summary
In comparison to the top wide forwards/AMs, his goal rate is again about half what it ought to be, he doesn't create any more goals than the others do and he creates about the same number of missed by others. He shoots as much as the others and from outside the penalty area he is equally effective, but inside the penalty area his shooting is poor and he fails to get enough chances in the 6 yard box.

Overall Conclusion
From the contributions of each of these players is seems fair to asses Firmino as follows:

Positives
- Takes a comparable number of shots to the top strikers and wide forwards/AMs
- He creates as many goals for others as the top strikers and wide forwards/AMs
- He creates as many missed chances for others as the top wide forwards/AMs and considerably more than top strikers
- His shooting from outside of the box is comparable with the top strikers and wide forwards/AMs
- His set piece and counter attacking abilities match the top strikers and wide forwards/AMs

Negatives
- Top strikers and wide forwards/AMs score 100%-150% more goals (excl penalties) than Firmino
- His shooting inside the penalty area is wasteful. Either his shooting is not good or he is shooting when he shouldn't ie taking low probability shots
- He does not get enough 6 yard box chances
- His open play chance taking ability is only 40%-50% of the others

Contrary to what Klopp has said, in terms of positive attacking ability, the evidence suggests that Firmino's best attributes are a match for others whilst his poorer attributes fall well short. There is no evidence of leading performance or being 'the best player without scoring with how well he reads the game for the benefit of others'. Good yes, the best no.