Pro Pundits

How to navigate the FPL fixture congestion over Christmas

Six-time top 5k finisher Utkarsh Dalmia – aka Zophar –  talks us through the recovery time for Premier League players over Christmas in his latest Pro Pundits piece.


The busy Christmas period is almost upon and, for us Fantasy Premier League managers, it’s a fortnight we look upon with great excitement but also some fear of the dreaded ‘R’ word: rotation.

Of course, the schedule is not the same for every team and certain clubs have fixtures better spaced out than others between Gameweeks. As managers, the best we can do is take note of these differences and try to prepare our squads accordingly, predict benchings and see what teams we should target.

Managers often complain about having less than 72 hours to recover between matches and this is backed up by medical data. Recent research has shown that muscle injury risk increases by almost 20% when recovery time is reduced from six to three days.

It concluded that fixture congestion and insufficient recovery time between matches are two of the major risk factors associated with injuries and suggested that players should have at least 96 hours between matches in order to recover fully. Beyond the 96-hour period, there were no significant gains observed.

Keeping this in mind, I have listed the festive schedule for all Premier League teams below, with the respective gaps in hours between fixtures.

Gameweek 19 recovery (column B) does not appear to be a major issue, with most teams having well over 96 hours to rally themselves from their last league game. The clubs with the shortest rest periods are marked in yellow.

Liverpool’s fixture gap is calculated assuming they make the Club World Cup final. Manchester City and Wolves have the longest gap after West Ham, who have a mini-winter break due to their Gameweek 18 fixture postponement.

As you can see in column C, Gameweek 20 is where it gets a lot trickier. No team is afforded the ideal 96-hour recovery period, with Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Sheffield United (all in green) enjoying the longest rest periods.

Watford, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur stand out as the only three teams to be shaded yellow in both columns B and C, which is a potential flag for rotation. However, it is worth nothing that both the matches are at home for Spurs, so there is less time spent on travel etc.

All the teams in yellow are potential rotation concerns but the ones in red have it particularly difficult.

Bournemouth, Leicester, Manchester City, Newcastle and Wolves have less than 48 hours between their Gameweek 19 and Gameweek 20 matches, with Wolves being the lowest at 44.75.

Another factor we have to consider apart from rotation is fatigue, and with such a short recovery period there is naturally going to be a dip in performances for teams who cannot afford to rotate.

This looks like a perilous week for Manchester City assets in particular as I don’t see Pep Guardiola risking the likes of Kevin De Bruyne (£10.3m) in both games.

In comparison, Gameweek 21 (column D) is more forgiving with 12 teams enjoying a minimum of 96 hours of recovery time.

The teams in yellow all have at least 88 hours (except Arsenal with 78), so they should be fine too.

However, the teams in red (Chelsea, Man City and Wolves) have less than 72 hours recovery and again this is something that we need to take note of. Rotation can again be expected at Chelsea and Manchester City given the depths of their squads, while Wolves might be forced to ring the changes as well.

Column E reflects the total number of hours between games over the festive period and it can be seen that Chelsea (236), Spurs (238.5), Watford (241) and Man Utd (246) have the most congested schedules.

All other teams have at least 261 hours, with Liverpool (290.5) and Sheffield Utd (293) having the most relaxed schedule. West Ham’s total is inflated by their blank week in Gameweek 18.

Gamweek 20 and 21 look tricky in particular, so the final column F disregards the gap between Gameweeks 18-19 (column B) and focuses more on those two weeks.

The teams in red, Manchester City and Wolves, have it significantly harder than the rest, with both sides afforded less than 120 hours recovery for two matches combined. The fact that they had longer rest periods in Gameweek 19 does not really help from a recovery standpoint.

Liverpool and Sheffield United’s recovery period again stands out with 168 and 173 hours respectively.

With regards to my team, I have two free transfers and £0.4m in the bank.

Watching the last few games as a Chelsea fan has been soul-crushing and I definitely want to reduce my emotional investment in the Blues. Christian Pulisic (£7.4m) will be making way for Son Heung-min (£10.1m), and, as I need to raise £2.2m to fund it, I’ll either be downgrading Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.3m) or Tammy Abraham (£8.0m). I could swap Raul Jimenez (£7.5m) to Abraham the following week but I’m not sure I will given how badly Chelsea have slumped.

Captaincy is up in the air, with Jimenez, De Bruyne, Jack Grealish (£6.1m) and Son all decent options.


An FPL veteran of 10 seasons, Utkarsh Dalmia has been a member of the site right since 2009 and has finished in the top 5k in six of those campaigns, with a best finish of 17th in 2010. A Chelsea fan based in India, he relies heavily on statistics for his FPL decision-making process.



1,208 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Four gameweeks in next 10-ish days

    It really is the most wonderful time of the year 🙂

  2. FPL FREAK
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Cahill is out it seems with a knock and return date is unknown... So now is Dann a nailed one...?? Couldn't afford Guaita and already have Kelly.

    1. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      I have Guaita and no Kelly due to fear of starts. I would find a way of getting Guaita IMO.

    2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      See previous page 🙂

    3. pingissimus
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      If you insist on a second defender go Tomkins. But no one knows who first choice pairing is at the back - perm 2 of Tomkins Sakho Cahill.

      No one fit is nailed and Kelly has had as many starts as most this season and seems the one to have. Doubling up is ambitious with no left back options in the squad

  3. how now brown cow
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Morning all.

    As a one week punt before a WC, what do you think is best?

    A - Richarlison (ARS)
    B - Alli (CHE)
    C - D Silva (LEI)

    1. The 12th Man
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      A

  4. The 12th Man
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Pull the trigger on Robertson,Mane,Mousett >> Aurier,Alli,Rashford for -4?

    Will give me
    Ryan
    Lundstrum,Aurier,Rico
    Son(c),Alli,Maddison,KDB
    Vardy,Rashford,Jimenez

    Button,Cantwell,Söyüncü,TAA

    1. pingissimus
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      One train that’ll get stuck in the station and two over the horizon and running out of steam

      1. The 12th Man
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        You don’t rate Spurs to keep it going?

        The only player I’m unsure of in that transfer is Aurier.

        1. pingissimus
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          I suspect they’ll become a Mou team. Last week was disillusionment for me. Alli is the one to have I suspect.

          Have Son and may trade down at some point to free up funds.

          1. The 12th Man
            • 10 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            This is true. Good fixtures and form though over x mas.
            Who would you go for over Alli/Aurier?

            1. pingissimus
              • 5 Years
              4 years, 3 months ago

              Alli for sure

    2. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      You could create your own problems moving both Pool assets. Getting Rash will force a double tfr to get Mane back. Just do one Pool tfr unless you have a WC.

      1. The 12th Man
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Won’t be getting Liverpool attack until 24/25 and then I’ll have a choice of Salah or Mane.

      2. The 12th Man
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Still have Trent so moving Robbo isn’t an issue.

        1. Eze Really?
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Fair enough. TAA makes a difference.

    3. g40steve
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      This time of year sometimes you need to mix it up to get ahead.
      Better to be on the trains than sitting at the station.

      1. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        I am no expert. I did the Mane Rash route too and ignored the consequences

        1. The 12th Man
          • 10 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          There’s 2 ways I can get Rashford without losing Mane.

          1. TAA,Robertson,Mousett > Aurier,Kelly,Rashford
          2. Robertson,Jimenez,Mousset > Kelly,Rashford,Jota/Ings/Maupay

  5. JurgenRocks
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Thinking about selling Pulisic at the weekend? Which is the best midfielder to bring in? (Zaha, Richarlison, etc.)
    Already have Maddison, Dendocker, Alli and Mane. 8.2 ITB

  6. Eze Really?
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    126 points on the bench!
    Can anyone beat that number over the GW's played so far?

    1. g40steve
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      161 🙁

      1. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Wow!!!! 8 points per GW?

        1. g40steve
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          I had a 26 worst 40, Lundy, Mouse, Rico

          1. Eze Really?
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            Ouch!!!!!!!!

      2. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Sorry mine 136 pts

    2. The 12th Man
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      127 here

      1. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Seems Lund Rico Kelly have created a dilemma

        1. The 12th Man
          • 10 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Indeed. A good dilemma though.I don’t mind some points on the bench.

          1. Eze Really?
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            Feel the same. Makes you half way right at least.

    3. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Easy 143. Missing out on Lord Lundy's hauls every flippin' time 🙁

      1. g40steve
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        This his 20+ hurt.

      2. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        See above. Is that classed as a troll?

      3. Andy_Social
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        The time he got 21 my bench total was 40.

    4. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      82

      1. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Mr sensible with a little luck or lots of skill?

        1. Old Man
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          No - pure luck! 😀 My subs are crap and I've been forced to play whoever is left. Ota's 1 minute cameo cost me Soy's 14 pointer though.

    5. HurriKane
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      140 here.

      Thanks to likes of kelly cantwell lundstram

      1. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Seems the standard. If it is the same for everyone it is OK.
        The captain and bench pick have a 2 million place swing probably.

    6. Sparky6670
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      135

      Some things like Dunk scoring against Liverpool and Willems against City in the same week are almost an unavoidable kick in the balls!

      1. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Aye!

  7. Eleven Hag
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Wat chances wud u give for either palace or SU keeping a Clean sheet ?

    1. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Reasonable

  8. HurriKane
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Why are some looking to Sell an inform Ings? (8 goals in last 11)

    Soton Fixtures turn but dont you realize he is fixture proof? He's already scored against liv tot che wol ars.

    Plus apart from vardy and rashford not so many has been pulling up trees lately

    1. pingissimus
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Agreed

      But quite looking forward to his being a differential again. Both Chelsea and Spurs concede and he’ll score against one anyway

    2. g40steve
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Maybe his luck ran out?

      1. HurriKane
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        A blank against westham and his luck suddenly ran out and he is rubbish option?

        What are you smoking lad?

        1. g40steve
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          You watched the games?

          1. HurriKane
            • 11 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            Yh ive been watching him closely and looks a threat everytime.

            Dont know what the stats looklike but he surely racks up lots of shots and dont think his scoring will slow down barring injuries

        2. g40steve
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Never said rubbish option just the luck bit.

        3. Old Man
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Unlucky too. Hit the underside of the bar and the outside of the post (even though the latter was incorrectly ruled as offside).

          1. HurriKane
            • 11 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            This. On another could have had an hatty.

            Saying his goal scoring is a fluke and his luck will run out is pure negligence. Ings is getting into dangerous goalscoring positions and is the focal point of attack (talismann)

            1. Eze Really?
              • 9 Years
              4 years, 3 months ago

              The bar, the post, point blank miss!
              I wish I had him

    3. Klaren
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      I don’t think he is fixture proof, he played against the first three of those teams in their worst possible times and scored due to major mistakes that don’t happen every match and Arsenal is one of the worst defences in the league.

      1. HurriKane
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Whatever helps you sleep at night 😉

        Form, stats and eye test back him up.

    4. Amey
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Maybe will keep him till he's broken again 😀

      1. HurriKane
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        He is fpl gold when fit backed up by previous seasons

        Whenever he plays he gets a fair amount of goals. Clinical striker

        1. Amey
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Yes.
          Problem is I can't fit Tammy because of that.

          1. HurriKane
            • 11 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            Chelsea has gone off the boil lately. Not sure tammy is worth 2m more over Ings on current form

    5. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      No idea in terms of common sense. Chasing Rash I should think.

  9. willieprunier
    • 13 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Maddison to Grealish for 2 weeks??

    1. andres
      • 12 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Yeah, I think it might be a good move, he also played 120 min yesterday

      1. Old Man
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        I don't think that there was extra time.

        1. Eze Really?
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          There was

          1. Old Man
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            Really? I missed the second half but I didn't think that the EFL had ET. Oh well, I'm wrong again.

            1. Wild Rover
              • 13 Years
              4 years, 3 months ago

              No you're not

          2. Southsea FC
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            The match went straight to penalties after 90 minutes.

            1. Eze Really?
              • 9 Years
              4 years, 3 months ago

              Fair enough. I missed second half and woke up at the penalties. We were losing 2 zip.

          3. Old Man
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            4 years, 3 months ago

            Just checked - there is no mention of extra time in the BBC text ...??

            1. Annie
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              4 years, 3 months ago

              Must be a joke

    2. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      He will be knackered for the next game for sure.

    3. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Maddison to Richarlison for free?

      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Sorry, should have been an own post

      2. Baganuva Hatty
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Could be a good shout. Have you go money tied up in madders?

  10. andres
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Hedno
    Kelly Soy Lund
    Cantwell Alli Son Madds
    Rash Vardy abraham

    TAA, mane, Pieters 0.6 ITB 1FT.

    A. madds => grealish
    B. mane => kdb (to get Salah in a couple of GWs)
    C TAA,Madds => Targett/Rico, KDB (-4)

    1. Fantasy Pig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      B

    2. Bronski
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      B

  11. SpaceCadet
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Grealish or Richarlison?

    1. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      New manager could improve Richa.

      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        But will he still play up front?

        1. Eze Really?
          • 9 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Depends on Jan tfr window. He is better on the flanks and just as capable of getting points. A Rashford situation too.

    2. balint84
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      clearly Rich

  12. manu4life99
    • 14 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    What gw do Rico & Kelly become rotation risks (Daniels & Ward returning)?

    1. Eze Really?
      • 9 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Important. Both 4.4 so getting one of them but not 2 IMO

    2. balint84
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      both are better than Daniels or Ward

  13. Fernando Torres
    • 12 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Best defender 4.8m or less?

    Got Rico, Kelly

    1. g40steve
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      One of the Shef boys.

      1. Fernando Torres
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        I've got Henderson and Lord

        1. g40steve
          • 6 Years
          4 years, 3 months ago

          Dunk, Willems one the Villa sub 4.5s

    2. Lord of Ings
      • 8 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Would you do pulisic--->grealish/Richa for -4?

      1. Baganuva Hatty
        • 4 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        I would yes. Puli has to go.
        Rich'son I think has a bigger haul in him.
        Grealish 'is' Villa.
        Both massively inconsistent.
        Grealish and save money for me

    3. balint84
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Dunk

  14. g40steve
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Find the final bench option please?

    Hendo,
    Lundstram, Kelly, Rico,
    C Son, Alli, KDB, Grealish, Maddy
    Vardy, Tammy, Rashford

    Button, ???, Soy, Trent,

    2.4 bank

    Wc20

    1. Hy liverpool
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Maddison

      1. g40steve
        • 6 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Ta.

    2. Baganuva Hatty
      • 4 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Except Kelly. I have B. Williams This is my team.
      It is between madders and Abraham.
      Vardy covers Leicester. So madders first sub for me.

      Interested to see your wildcard plans with the line up you have. Peace and Goodwill

  15. Lord of Ings
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Would you do pulisic--->Richa/grealish for -4?

    1. balint84
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      not for -4

    2. Bronski
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      I would Rich new manager boost Grealish on pens (hopefully) Pulisic flatters to decieve

      1. Old Man
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        He's certainly deceived me!

    3. Fantasy Pig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      I’d go richarlison. Grealish 4 YCs puts me off especially for a -4

      1. Annie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Rich on 4 too

  16. balint84
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    captain Son / Jimenez ?

    1. Bronski
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Son

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Son

  17. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Which one:

    A) Dendocker (nor)
    B) Richarlison (ARS) -4

    1. balint84
      • 7 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      A) 2 points
      B) might scores but -4 means 2point. but in long term B is better

    2. Fantasy Pig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      B if you plan to hold for the long term

    3. Bronski
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Ive done Rich for -4 this week new manager boost hopefully. Worth a punt i think. For me thats what its about taking a calculated risk and great when it pays off

  18. Fantasy Pig
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Hi guys and girls

    Thoughts on Mane + Pulisic to Sterling + Martial for free?

    My GW team would be:

    Henderson
    Lundstram Aurier Rico (TAA Söyüncü)
    Sterling Son KDB Martial (Dendoncker)
    Vardy Rashford Jiménez

    Thanks!

  19. The 12th Man
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    If Arteta isn’t announced at Arsenal today think I might get Richarlison instead of Alli.

  20. Lecky Legs FC
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Looking on doing Maddison > Richarlison for free have Vardy as LEI cover thoughts?

    1. Bronski
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Keep Maddy good run of fixtures again aftet next 2 and scored again last night

  21. SpaceCadet
    • 10 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Dump one for Rashford

    a. tammy
    b. ings

    1. Bronski
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      Ings more consistent

  22. New Article
  23. Johan Queef
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Which combo is best to accompany Mane, KDB, Maddison, Alli & Vardy over the coming weeks:

    A) Son, Jimenez & Connolly 352 (means TAA to Aurier or Ota also)

    B) Rashford, Jota & Dendonkey 343 (keep TAA)

  24. Eze Really?
    • 9 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    What happens to TAA 4 yellows?
    GW19 upcoming is halfway. Has he escaped the ban?

    1. Mince n Tatties
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 years, 3 months ago

      He needs to avoid getting one in GW19

      1. Eze Really?
        • 9 Years
        4 years, 3 months ago

        Tnks

  25. JelliedSpark968
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Have we settled on the best differential (c) this week?
    A) Kane
    B) Richarlison
    C) Son

  26. JelliedSpark968
    • 4 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    Bench Trossard or Rico? Rico has screwed me on the bench all year

  27. tets mcgee (Bachmann an Rob…
    • 8 Years
    4 years, 3 months ago

    any1 seen the scoutpicks challenge on here tonight? cheers.