Scout Picks in 3-5-2 formation for Gameweek 35+

The Review: GW 34+

Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of The Review. With GW’s coming thick and fast, it’s time to look back on the key numbers of GW34+ with a look ahead to GW35+:

(Data taken from FFScout with permission)

1) I start with the flavors of the GW – Jamie Vardy and Danny Ings. I don’t think Leicester were that fluent against Arsenal, but what matters is that Vardy is back amongst the goals again. He has already accumulated more big chances in the past two GW's than he did in the previous nine GW's combined. He will now be up against a Bournemouth side who have conceded the highest number of goals post restart so has a rare combination of form and fixture on his side. I think the Spurs game was an aberration for Bournemouth, I don’t think they will turn into a good defensive unit overnight. I’d rather trust the larger sample size on that one, and I’d expect Leicester to put a couple past them. Moving onto Ings. 18 penalty area touches for him against Everton is the most an outfield player has managed in a single game in the opposition's penalty area box all season. This just explains how hungry Ings is, and I’d be shocked if he didn’t step up for the next penalty given that he’s playing for the golden boot. He has a tough fixture against United this week, before his fixtures get much easier till the end of the season.

2) Is it worth holding onto Raúl Jiménez? Just the four shots in the box and no big chances registered by him over the past four GWs makes for grim reading. Factor in the fact that three of those four games were against Villa, Bournemouth and Sheffield - yet Wolves barely created a big chance per game. In the last four GW’s pre restart, Wolves created 12 big chances. In the five GW’s so far post restart, Wolves have created just five big chances which sums up their struggles. Funnily enough, I don’t think Everton is too bad a fixture for Jiménez because Everton will try and come at Wolves and might get exposed on the counter. This might be particularly true if Everton continue to be without Holgate. I can justify the free transfer to Vardy this week, but I don’t think it’s worth taking a hit to sell him.

3) Matt Doherty (GW 23 till GW28)

Shots in the box per game: ∼1.33
Big chances per game: 0.80

Matt Doherty (GW 29 till GW34+)

Shots in the box per game: ∼0.33
Big chances per game: 0

Gone under the radar but Doherty's attacking numbers have nosedived post the restart. Will I still keep him? Yes, I think it’s a luxury move getting rid of a defender at this stage of the season, that too of an elite defence. Wolves’ were particularly unlucky to concede this week, given that they didn’t concede a big chance all game against Sheffield. In fact, they have only conceded six big chances over the past nine GW’s and continue to remain the standout defence in the league. Double Wolves defence is still the way to go in my opinion. I can easily see at least two clean sheets out of the next three against Everton, Burnley and Palace.

4) The player who has surprised me the most post restart has been Willian. Based on the larger sample size over the season, I was adamant that Christian Pulisic was the better pick because he was outdoing Willian in all the key FPL performance indicators. Willian’s consistency has been remarkable, not only is he outscoring Pulisic (46 points to 37) over the past five games, but he is outdoing Pulisic stats wise of late as well. The penalties have helped, and so has the fact that Willian is playing for a contract. Since the restart, Willian has an xG of nearly four compared to Pulisic’s two and has created three big chances for his teammates compared to Pulisic’s one.

5) Marcus Rashford post restart:

Big chances = 4
Goals = 1
Big chances created = 4
Assists = 2

Rashford is one of the most underperforming players in the league post restart, no matter what statistical model you look at, and seems to be Underperforming with a capital U!

Mason Greenwood post restart:

Big chances = 0
Goals = 4
Big chances created = 1
Assists = 1

Greenwood is so ridiculously two footed I don’t think xG will be as useful a metric for him as it is for an average player. Would I sell Rashford for him? In isolation, Rashford’s numbers look so much more better but that £4m saving goes a long way! I don’t really think there’s a right or wrong call here. I can see both sides of the spectrum.

6) Who would I captain this week? With slight doubts over a Salah start, I’d recommend going for a United or a City asset this week. Bruno and Sterling are the ones that come to mind, Bruno because he’s been the most on form United asset and Sterling because he has the best minutes per expected goal involvement ratio of all players in the league away from home. He should be safe to start too, given that he’s already had his rest. Man United and Man City both have been playing attacking level at another level post the restart, creating on average over three big chances per game. The smart play is to continue picking assets from these teams as captain till the end of the season.

7) Salah with Mane in the team = 147 points in 25 starts at an average of ∼5.88 FPL points per game

Salah without Mane = 76 points in 6 starts at an average of ∼12.67 FPL points per game

As soon as I saw the Liverpool lineup against Brighton, I knew a Salah haul was around the corner. The Egyptian becomes a force of nature without Mane in the team, it’s almost as if he relishes being the LFC talisman. Salah recorded eight shots inside the box against Brighton, and an incredible four big chances – a total which he managed to accumulate in the previous ten GW’s combined. Will he start this GW? I’m confident he will, even though I can’t say that with absolute assurance but with a reasonable amount of certainty. He’s going for the Golden Boot, and Burnley is arguably the easiest fixture on paper that Liverpool have left so I think Klopp will play him despite the fixture congestion.

8) Those fearing a Salah rest asked me to compile a similar study regarding Mane with and without Salah as well:

Mane with Salah in the team = 171 points in 23 starts at an avg of ∼7.43 FPL points per game

Mane without Salah = 29 points in 4 starts at an avg of 7.25 FPL points per game

The sample size here is small, and the difference only marginal but it seems as if Mane performs slightly better with Salah in the team so Mane owners should be hoping he starts. Another point I’d like to mention here about Liverpool this week is that because Klopp has already rotated the other full back Robertson in the previous game, I suspect that it might be Trent Alexander Arnold’s turn to get rested, so make sure you have your benches in order.

9) A lot of De Bruyne captainers like myself were left frustrated despite him scoring a reasonable seven pointer this week. It’s a case of what might have been, because he kept on creating chance after chance but his teammates were wasteful with the opportunities he provided. There’s also the theory of David Silva negatively impacting De Bruyne’s FPL returns. I think Silva is a fantastic player to watch but sometimes when City play with De Bruyne and Silva, De Bruyne tends to play more of a deeper role as opposed to what he’d play in the “tougher” games with the likes of Gündoğan and Rodri. A glance through the data backs up the eye test:

KdB with David Silva in the team = 121 points in 20 starts at an average of 6.05 FPL points per game

KdB without David Silva = 102 points in 11 starts at an average of ∼9.27 FPL points per game

Pure coincidence? I think not.

10) Arsenal’s defence continues to impress under Mikel Arteta. Over the past four games, Arsenal have conceded just 0.75 big chances per game as compared to ∼2.42 big chances per game in the rest of Arteta’s tenure hence improvement at the back is noticeable. This GW, they conceded just one big chance to Leicester, which was the goal they conceded after going down to ten men. I fancy them for a clean sheet against Spurs, given how poor Spurs have been recently. Against Bournemouth, Spurs failed to record a big chance or a shot on target. Post the restart, Spurs have been creating at an average of less than one big chance per game, and are ranked second worst for xG despite having extremely favorable fixtures during this spell. That is not a stat you’d want to hear as a Harry Kane owner.

11) Sheffield United’s defensive performances post the restart have been fascinating. They continue to blow hot and cold – one week they look all over the place while the very next GW they transform themselves into a stellar unit. I thought I’d dissect their numbers. When you look at the numbers as a whole, Sheffield are ranked worst for xGc for restart, conceding 13 big chances in six games. However, a closer look would tell you that seven of those 13 big chances conceded were when they a Newcastle side with 10 men and then Man United with a second string defence which means that as a whole, the data is skewed. With the exception of these two games, Sheffield have been conceding 1.50 big chances per game which is average when you compare these numbers to other teams relatively. With O’Connell back, I expect them to make things difficult for their opponents.

12) Another clean sheet for Burnley this week despite conceding three big chances to West Ham sums up their fortunes of late. Burnley are ranked second worst for xGc post restart yet have kept three clean sheets, and conceded just six goals compared to an xGc of nearly nine over this period. Burnley and Nick Pope continue to defy all logic, how long will the voodoo continue?

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Thank you once again for your continuous encouragement and support, I hope you have a great GW35+!