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Value of Premium Defenders vs Cheap Rotating pair

My articles on player value (first, second and third) have highlighted that premium defenders seem to be the most efficient use of funds in FPL, with the it almost always being worth upgrading defenders to the highest scoring, regardless of price.

In this article I will look at whether this still holds true if we look at rotating pairs of cheaper defenders compared to their more expensive counterparts.

Reference Point

Starting with the defenders from the theoretically most efficient team we got:

DEF: Trent Alexander-Arnold | 7.0m | 210

DEF: Virgil Van Dijk | 6.5m | 178

DEF: Matt Doherty | 6.0m | 167

And the season before (2018/19) was:

DEF: Andrew Robertson | 6m | 213

DEF: Virgil van Dijk | 6m | 208

DEF: Aymeric Laporte | 5.5m | 177

DEF: Trent Alexander-Arnold | 5m | 185

And in 2017/18:

DEF: César Azpilicueta | 6.5m | 175

DEF: Marcos Alonso | 7.0m | 165

DEF: Nicolás Otamendi | 5.5m | 156

DEF: Ben Davies | 5.5m | 143

Effectively two rotating £4.5m defenders is equivalent to one £5.0m defender (presuming cheapest bench). If you can get 8 points in a season per £0.5m then an upgrade is usually worth taking (see discussion here) so the aim here is to see if rotating £4.5m can get over 151 – 161 points, at which point they might be worth considering.

Method

I’m going to only look at fairly nailed on defenders (played 60mins in at least two-thirds of their games), and then I’ll take the points per game (PPG) of the top two defenders (not from the same team), average them, then multiply by 38 to get a benchmark for rotating them across the whole season.

This presumes that one of the two will play every game and, to make it a fair fight we will increase the target to 155 – 165 to account for a couple of no-shows for the premium options, presuming a 2-pointer bench fodder coming off the bench in that scenario.

I’ll start with the basic method which gives you a benchmark for arbitrary rotation, then will add some parameters in to simulate rules about which defender you would prioritise.

Results

Random

If you managed to hit upon the two best £4.5m defenders and rotated them randomly, you would get Baldock (3.7ppg) and Dunk (3.6ppg) giving a score of 138.7.

Exclude Man City and Liverpool

The first adjustment is an obvious one – don’t play the defender who is playing Man City or Liverpool. This gives you Baldock (4.0ppg) and Soyuncu (3.9ppg) and a total score of 150.1.

Exclude Top 8

The second adjustment is to only play the defender who is not playing one of the top eight finishers from this season. Although we wouldn’t have known this at the start of the season, excluding the traditional big six plus Leicester and Wolves seems fairly logical.

The top two here come out as Baldock (4.2ppg) and Fernandez (4.1ppg) with a total of 157.7.

Home/Away

The next adjustment is to prioritise the home fixture. The best pair in this setup is Egan (4.5ppg) and Saiss (4.0ppg) giving a total of 161.5 points. This may, however, be slightly misleading as Egan is a full 0.5ppg ahead of anyone else with home form which seems to be a bit of an anomaly, so possibly taking Saiss and Fernandez (4.0ppg) for a total of 152.0 is more realistic.

Combined

If we combine some of the filters we get:

No City/Pool and home: 176.7 points

Not top 8 and home: 220.4 points

In Reality

The results show the most significant boost when not playing cheap defenders against top 8 teams, and if you add in priority for home fixtures the PPG, in theory, goes higher than the top-scoring premium defender. There are a couple of key problems with this.

The first is that finding a rotating pair that lets you always play a home fixture against a non-top-8 team is going to be pretty challenging. Home/away rotating pairs that avoid Man City and Liverpool, however, seems achievable.

The second is that the top two defenders are not going to be the ones that you can actually rotate successfully home and away, even for parts of a season.

Top x Defender Average

It is probably, then, better to look at the average of the top five defenders (again, maximum one from each team) to give a more realistic potential for rotating pairs.

No City/Pool and home: 167.2 points

Not top 8 and home: 193.8 points

What about if we just take the average of the best defender from each team, excluding the teams that would have been obvious to avoid fairly early on (Brighton, Norwich, Southampton, Watford, West Ham)?

No City/Pool and home: 159.6 points

Not top 8 and home: 182.4 points

Conclusion

After doing this exercise, I’m reconsidering rotating £4.5m defenders for one slot over premiums.

It looks fairly reasonable to get 160-180 from rotating pairs by prioritising home and avoiding City/Pool and, ideally, the rest of the big 8.

Please do leave any thoughts on the method, any flaws in the logic or other rules to try to improve PPG performance.

68 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Rotation's Alter Ego
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Thank you Hedge, this is really good research.

    I also prefer rotating 4.5 defenders with usually just 1 premium defender in my squad (if that) but surely this could be even more appetising if we're looking to spend tons on our midfield next season? Nothing like a bit of confirmation bias to make me happy with my plans 😉

    1. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      There is always the confirmation bias risk! I guess if you swap two premiums out for three or four rotating pairs you could save £3-4m, however I'm not sure if it'd be easy enough to nail that many decent budget options even for a short spell

  2. Ginkapo FPL
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    So rotating.... hmmmm.... Lewis Dunk anyone?

  3. pingissimus
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Nice article

    Just one observation. If you take Laporte as a likely/possible part of any premium defence there’s a strong case to be made to have at least one “strong” 4.5 in any event.

    1. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Not sure I follow

      1. pingissimus
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Laporte will miss a number of games compared to other premiums - notably Liverpool. In 2018/9 - a complete season with no injury issues - he was rotated more.

        Even if his season value is good - and you’re prepared just to run with season value - it can be improved by having someone cheap stand in when he’s out.

        (I wonder whether Ake in - someone who plays on the left too - makes his season value more questionable)

        1. Hedge
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Ah I see, so going for a non-nailed premium with a £4.5 backup?

          The issue with that for me are when the premium comes on as a sub and also not being able to select the fixtures that your budget defender comes on, could end up as a bad one

          1. Andy_Social
            • 11 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            Yeh, that doesn't work. However, a close-ish equivlent is perhaps my hope to have a 4.5 Brandon williams as one of my 4.5s. Cheap defender but at 'premium' club.

          2. pingissimus
            • 5 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            You can’t select the fixture he gets but with two cheapies you could theoretically rotate first bench. Early season that’s not budget but late season perhaps - but that’s a different question

            Core issue for me is whether Laporte can comfortably be included in any premium defence. If not you’re losing one of the best defences in the league.

            1. Andy_Social
              • 11 Years
              3 years, 7 months ago

              He's one of many Peptation gambles. You have him on the understanding that he'll sit out the odd game but makes up for it over the season. The only Citizen spared the curse is Ederson.

            2. Hedge
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 12 Years
              3 years, 7 months ago

              Yep that could work potentially

        2. RedLightning
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          I think the article was looking at whether it might be a possible improvement to his theoretically most efficient team if he replaced the third premium defender (Doherty) with a pair of cheaper rotating defenders from say Sheffield United and Newcastle or Leicester and Brighton.
          Laporte wasn't in his theoretically most efficient team.

          1. Andy_Social
            • 11 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            Doh usurped Laporte last year but Laporte was the third premium the previous year (or 2 before you corrected the error). This year we can postulate that Laporte will likely outscore Doherty in terms of ppm, so the issue is how often will Laporte sit out a game.

            Anyway, in my case, the 3 premiums are due to be all from Liverpool - although I might take Gomez over VVD if there's a 1m difference. I'm looking to supplement those with 2x4.5 defenders albeit in a more complex arrangement than simply standing in for a rested premium. I'll be trying to play the fixtures in blocks of 6 GWs with easy homies taken into consideration.

            1. RedLightning
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 13 Years
              3 years, 7 months ago

              Since the restart, Doherty and Laporte had almost identical points per game. Doherty played in all 9 matches compared to only 6 for Laporte though, so Doherty will probably still be the better choice for third premium defender.

              Taking defenders in isolation Robertson would be better still, but trebling up with 3 Liverpool defenders would prevent the inclusion of Salah or Mane.

              Having two rotating cheaper defenders either to replace a third premium or in addition to three premiums is certainly an interesting option which I may consider for next season. Or having a 4.5m defender to rotate with cheap midfielders or forwards, which is something I have sometimes done in the past.

              I wonder though why Hedge omitted any mention of Lord Lundstram. He outscored Baldock by 2 points and was also 0.5m cheaper, so rotated well with a Newcastle defender such as Fernandez. Won't be a serious option next season though, except possibly as a 4.5-5.0m midfielder!

        3. amitmishr
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          With ake, I guess Laporte would still start 60% of games and come in as substitute for 20% of games.
          Ake might see lower starts though

  4. RedLightning
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    IN 2017/18, the highest scoring defenders were:
    Azpilicueta 175
    Alonso 165
    Otamendi 156

    ...

    Robertson 111
    Laporte 35
    Alexander-Arnold 83

    1. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Good spot, copy and paste issue there, oops!

  5. Andy_Social
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Love your stuff Hedge - always food for thought.

    My first response is that I doubt anyone picks a pair of 4.5 defenders and hangs onto them all season. But I suppose if you use your transfers to sift through until you hit on 2 of the best performers, you end up with something like you advocate, albeit with fewer points due to the time taken to land on them.

    Secondly, my intended strategy is to have a flexible pair of 4.5 defenders, but utilise them quite differently. The idea is to have 3 fixed premium defenders, from your initial short list of tried-and-tested, with a pair of 4.5s. I will also have a 4.5 midfielder and two budget strikers. From that pool of five, I start 2 and leave 3 on the bench. The choices depend on form and fixtures, with the formation changing accordingly. So there should be plenty weeks when both budget defenders are benched, and occasions when both step up in a 5-at-the-back. I'm sure that's way too complex to analyse and predict though.

    1. Jonah
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Good points. Everything in this article would also apply to you, as you say.

      This article can help you decide whether you want a £5.0 and a £4.0 in your bench, or two rotating £4.5s.

    2. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Yeh am not advocating keeping the same £4.5m pair for the whole season, but just using the average PPG and multiplying it out to the full season for easy comparison with premiums.

      In theory the same should hold true for a six week spell, for example. Obviously you get good runs and bad runs for premiums and cheap defenders, but on average you'd expect it to be true for any given gameweek

  6. Jonah
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    What a fantastic article. Back when I used to play (starting again next season) I used to favour this strategy, but it was such a massive ball-ache working out if it had been effective or not. This was very helpful.

    In these days of chips, where you completely change your team every 15 weeks or so through the season, you can shift your budget defender choice to get to the best fixtures. If you have some restraint, you normally know what kind of time-frame you are looking at, and can pick the best budget pair specifically for that window.

    1. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Cheers for the feedback. Yep, that's what I'm thinking I might have a go at this season, trying the find the best rotating pair for a period based primarily on avoiding the top 8 and, if possible, home matches.

      Interested to see if anyone else has ideas about what factors could help choose the best of the pair to play

      1. Jonah
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Picking the first player is obvious, really. In most cases it will be the one which one you think will score the most points. Picking the second one may be more surprising. It really might not be the one who scores the most points! It's who fits in best with the first one. This is more likely to be the case if you are dealing with a short period of time, e.g. a 6-week period leading up to a wildcard.

        The Rate My Team tool on the site is great for this (full disclosure, my friend invented it). Set your team up, swap different budget players in and out, and see what comes out. Saves you doing lots of adding up of scores!

  7. Jonah
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    And one more thing - when choosing between budget defenders, who normally have very little attacking threat, the bookmakers publish the odds of a clean sheet for each team. They basically make your decision for you!

    1. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Yeh that's true. Might look at the correlation for that. I know bookies normally give fairly crap odds for minor markets like clean sheets, but I guess both teams may be relatively equivalent

  8. OHYEAH
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Great article! Would also be cool to try come up with some sort of lower bound estimate for this strategy. Did you also calculate the points you would have got if you picked the 2x 4.5m defenders that had the highest ppg on their team but with the lowest ppg out of the best 20 players from each team in the league (or less than 20 as not all teams have a suitable 4.5)?

    Bit confusing to explain but I think this makes sense.

    1. OHYEAH
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I guess you could also calculate the score in each scenario if you picked the best 2 teams but the second best 4.5m defender from each team... although I think it is easier to pick the best 4.5m defender from a team than it is to identify which teams will do the best over the season

      1. Hedge
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Will have a look when I get the chance. I think the difference between £4.5m on the same team is generally limited, or its obvious that one is the better option (additional attacking threat, BPS magnet etc)

        In terms of the lower teams, if Norwich were one of your rotating pairs, your average PPG would be completely shot! Similar for some of the other teams with poor clean sheet records. You do need to be able to pick the 5-6 teams with a £4.5m option and decent chance of clean sheets

  9. Our Tiny Windows
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Woah. Now this is why I come to this site.

  10. marko_v_111
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    It is a very good idea however there is one MASSIVE flaw with this.

    This is dependent on knowing which 4.5M will be highest scorers..haha

    Its very easy at the moment to pick out which premium defenders will be in the top 6 scoring defenders but alot harder to pick which 4.5M defenders will be highest scores AND rotate home/away.

    You could end up picking the wrong ones and then your theory fails.

    1. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      It's a fair point, but I think I addressed that at the end of the article.

      I think being able to predict the third or fourth highest scoring premium defender and being able to pick two of the top 8-10 £4.5m are roughly comparable, and both look to return similar points. If you can nail two of the top five £4.5m then there's potentially a greater upside than your third or fourth premium

      1. marko_v_111
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Sorry if i missed that at the end.

        But i do like your article. and has got me thinking. We all beleive me know who the premium good scoring defenders are but also hope to find those 4.5M great scoring defenders.

        But there could be 1 area missing....those 5-5.5M solid picks

        If you balance your team right then should be able to tap into all 3 of these to get a solid back line 🙂

        1. Hedge
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Generally upgrading the mid priced defenders to premiums is a better place to spend your money than anywhere else on the pitch (see my first article).

          I guess rotating 5.0-5.5 with a 4.5 could work, but your effectively spending the same as a premium plus bench fodder then anyway

  11. Tmorton
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    I wonder what this looks like if you rotate three 4.5m defenders and then have 2 premium defenders, say 2 of Trent, Robbo and Doc.

    I also think there is a big benefit of paying 0.5m extra on your second keeper so that you can rotate keepers. That extra 0.5m is unlikely to be better spent anywhere else.

    1. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I've tried that a few times. Never got it to work well. With 4.5 defenders it's too hard to anticipate their form - the highest scoring one is the one you leave on the bench, a curse that befalls to rotating keeper as well.

      1. Hedge
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        That's more about the psychological part of the game though. If you can cope with the mental side of getting the benching wrong sometimes then I think it could work out higher points over the season potentially.

      2. Tmorton
        • 3 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        The three 4.5m defenders argument is just an enhancement of rotating two 4.5m defenders as you can pretty much have a defender slot who only plays at home to weaker teams.

        1. Hedge
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Yeh that's true, just costs £0.5m more. Will probably depend on the fixtures for the mid table teams as to whether that's worth it

          1. Tmorton
            • 3 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            If that extra 0.5m gets you 3+ clean sheets it will be worth it. I think that is very possible

    2. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Keepers is an interesting one. Generally the lower value keepers have come closer to the premiums than defenders (obviously last year premium keepers flopped completely), so possibly rotating £4.5s may present better value. I suspect the increase for keepers in easier games may be less pronounced due to the top up of save points in the harder games

      1. Andy_Social
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        In my experience, my benched 4.5 would be the one that racked up the save points while my playing one ends up with a single point. I'd prefer one playing 4.5 keeper and transfer him out if he's on a losing streak. If possible, however, I'll get me a 5.5 (Pope) to set 'n' forget.

        1. Hedge
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Clean sheets for top teams were decidedly weird this season, am still considering an Ederson or something for the coming season

          1. Andy_Social
            • 11 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            Yeah, Alisson had a fluke injury that screwed up the clean sheets early doors. City had a defensive gap - still not sure it's completely plugged but I do expect them to start better. I'll be full with Liverpool; I would take Ederson but I expect to be short of funds.

        2. Tmorton
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          If you were to look at average points of keepers against top 8 teams and non-top 8 teams, I’m sure you would show that rotating two 4.5m GKs is better than having one GK and just sticking with him. Sure, there will be times when the benched one scores more but over the course of the season, I’m thinking the rotation would get you more points

        3. Jonah
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          Are you sure this is what happened, or are you just remembering annoying examples?

          If you try and 'rotation strategy' and add up the number of points that you achieved, it can be surprisingly high sometimes, even if sometimes you left points on the bench.

    3. pingissimus
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      I do like the three 4.5 defenders idea. 3 reasons.

      One reason is that it opens up Man City defence more. If you start from the premise that you're avoiding the double up you are currently left with Wolves and City as the other premium option at the back. I'm ignoring Chelsea! Doherty was great through the back half of last season but decidedly not great first half. There's enough doubt there to at least want to consider Laporte who is rotation prone. One way to cover that rotation weakness is to have a 3rd 4.5 to help you get a better good first bench option on a consistent basis.

      Another point is it's just simpler to avoid the very red fixtures if you are choosing from 3 not 2.

      And then 4.5s are almost by definition less predictable and liable to go on unexpected form losses or that your 4.5 isn't as nailed as you thought. The third option allows you to cover this when you find out that Burnley for instance have lost their defensive mojo.

  12. L S P
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    This is really good stuff.

    What are your general thoughts on extending this out to 3 4.5s (with maybe a 4.0 if one looks viable) and having one more rotation possibility to go along 2 premium "sure" starters?

    I tend to be a later user of the first WC and usually can find a triple-up to last 10+ weeks with the criteria you set (no Top 8/home matches).

    1. L S P
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      ah - nvm. been sitting on this page for several hours - should have refreshed to see the comment above before posting!

      1. Hedge
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        No worries, thanks for the feedback. I'm normally a late wildcarder too so that's a strategy I may consider, definitely if there is a starting 4.0, or I may just look for a pair for the first few games and use a transfer to switch up one before first wildcard

        1. L S P
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          I usually do 2 4.5s in DEF but went with 4 6.0+ DEF last season until GW11, mainly playing 4-4-2. Worked out pretty well so could do it again. No hard science behind it but felt more flexible early doors while teams/players find form.

          But who really knows until we get prices...

  13. Easy Cheesy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Is there any way to look at an average 4.5 combo and how that compares to an average prem def? I like the idea but surely you have to stick with it until you WC as unwinding to find another combo that is better, alternating home/ away etc will be tricky.

    1. Jonah
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Wait for the RMT function in the members area to be up for the new season, and build your team on there. Would be the easiest way I can think of.

      And yes, once you've gone for this method, you have kind of committed to it until the next wildcard. You need to do it with genuinely nailed on players.

  14. Toblerone52 - Zlatan Ibra-H…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Really interesting article. I was all set to go into the season with 2 premium defenders, probably Doc and Trent and then rotate two 4.5m defenders with one 4m player on the bench.

    Think this article would broadly support that approach? Or maybe go for even more rotating players.

    Trick with rotating cheapies is to look at short periods. First few weeks to wildcard and then post wildcard is probably the easiest time to set up this strategy. Would become harder to have a rotating pair as the season goes on but by then perhaps the best options will have become more clear.

    1. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Yes I think this data broadly supports your approach. It seems a decent rotating pair can beat the third best premium generally, but I wouldn't have thought a second rotating pair would be better than the 2nd best premium

  15. Tarby
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    A nice article. I've gone a step further and done it by the games the players actually had on my own ranking system and picked best 3 fixtures each week, based on 5 cheap defenders (Lundstram, Dunk, Rico, Fernandez, Soyuncu)

    It would have scored 439 points over the season, which would have 19.5 points per £1m which is very reasonable

    I suppose it's then all comes down to what the extra money would be spent on! Probably depends on what midfield and forward bargains are out there. There could be quite a lot of re-positioning going on and might be a huge depth of premium midfielders and I might be tempted to even triple up on Trent, Robertson and van Dijk in defence!

    1. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      439 points isn't bad when rotating cheapies, however I would want a lot more than that from my back line for the season.

      If you got a couple of Liverpool defenders, for example, you would probably be looking at about 100 points more over the season for about £4.5m total. I think you'd struggle to get that amount from upgrading mids and forwards

      1. Tarby
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 7 months ago

        Yeah I totally agree. I think the balance will be one of your comments earlier, having 2 premium defenders and rotate 3 cheap ones, but just avoid the 5.0 & 5.5 defenders as likely no better than lots of 4.5 options.
        I'm thinking 2 from Liverpool/ City then 3 as cheap as possible who are likely to play and rotate on opposition

        I'll have a look at that tonight and comment!

        1. Andy_Social
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 7 months ago

          I don't agree with you there. I'd associate 5.5 defenders with Burnley and Wolves, one's I'd play almost every GW. At 4.5 you're looking at bottom half teams, inconsistent performances, fewer clean sheets and regular transfers as form fluctuates.

          1. Tarby
            • 4 Years
            3 years, 7 months ago

            Are a few but I value other I don't think there are many options. This season in the 5/5.5 the top ones were Tarkowski (143), Stevens (142) (but cheaper better SHU options still), Evans (128), Aurier (124), Wan-Bissaka (127), Maguire (123), Jonny (123).
            Then there are the likes of Digne, Azpilicueta, Lindelof, Walker, Alderweireld, David Luiz who would have caused nightmares.
            Go big or go low I think.

            Mixing van Dijk and Trent with Dunk, Lundstram, Rico would have been 546 points at 21pts/ £m

            I just did the same for Tarkowski, Aurier, Coady, AWB, Chillwell so also costing £26m and gets 402 points
            AWB ruins it as Utd did so badly against weaker sides, swapping van Aanholt in for him gives 469 points

            Lastly go all in on Liverpool with VVD, TAA, and Robertson with Lundstram and Rico on bench and 593 points (20.8 points/ £m)

            Could go a cheaper variation like 3 mid range and 2 cheap and only rotate to avoid LIV and MCI and save a few million

  16. jamesleslie
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    This is a long shot, but is there any chance you can share your working for the numbers behind this? Did you use Excel, or write some code?

    1. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      The method is in my first article, I run some code to loop through the logic to get the theoretical most efficient use of funds. For the the rotating pairs I used the same database and just ran some SQL queries for the different permutations

  17. LangerznMash
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Good input Hedge.
    I'm going to use some thing like this but also factor in a budget forward to make a 3 way rotation for my 11th player spot.
    Starting with a fixed based of 10 players something like:.
    GKs (5.0, 4.5)
    3 premium defenders (7.0, 6.5, 6.5)
    5 man midfield (11.5, 10.5, 8.5, 7.5, 6.0),
    1 mid-high priced Forward (8.5)

    My formation will either be 451 or 352 depending on with sub is the best candidate each week.
    Forward at Home to a high conceding bottom half team. (5.0, 4.5)
    Defender at Home to a non top 8 team. (4.5) (4.0)

    This is obviously heavily reliant on finding next seasons best budget forwards [Ayew (5.0) and Greenwood (4.5)] and defenders [Lund (4.0 and Baldock (4.5)]

    1. Hedge
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Yeh, as you say depends heavily on that budget forward spot, but would be interesting to see your average PPG for that method

    2. pingissimus
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 7 months ago

      Interesting structure

      I'm looking at something similar to this extent - I may well give the top priced mids a swerve. I'm also looking at 4 or so in the 7.5 to 10.5 bracket.

      One difference is I'd be prepared to put more money up top - Jim Ings sort of money and make the compromise in midfield. There's potential downgrade when/if a Jim Ings budget buster of the last two seasons appears. And I'd also have just 2 premiums at the back.

      The three premium defenders I see as a WC call with budget and not just for season value. Thrust of this article is that you "can" get something close to equal value rotating. I'm also thinking that defenders and defences are form based too. City and Wolves have been great at various times over the last 2 seasons but nearly all their cs have come in runs of form. I'm thinking of hopping n when that run shows signs of beginning.

  18. Scrumper
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    Im trying to find a summary of player value (points per million) for the previous season on the members area - but can't seem to find anything... surely this exists / I must missing something?

    Any help appreciated

  19. Tmorton
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    I think a lot depends on which clubs the 4.5m centre backs come from. For example, Saiss and Soyuncu can be considered anomalies as they are playing for top half teams and should have been priced at 5m.
    Fernandez is also used as an example but he didn’t start a game until GW10.
    I’m thinking that the strategy with 2 rotating defenders may only work if there are pricing anomalies, otherwise you may need to have 2 premium defenders and then rotate three 4.5m defenders in the third defensive spot

  20. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    First 18 GWs:

    CPL / NEW defensive rotation:

    SOU, BHA, EVE, BUR, BHA, ful, EVE, LEE, bur, NEW, avl, WBA, lee, FUL, avl, LEI*, SHU, shu

  21. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 7 months ago

    OK, Hedge.

    How about this for your £4.5m defensive rotation?

    1) Start with CPL / NEW defenders
    2) GW6 switch NEW to AVL defender
    3) GW12 switch CPL to NEW defender
    4) GW15 switch AVL to BUR defender

    First 17 GWs will give you:

    SOU, BHA, EVE, BUR, BHA, LEE, SOU, LEE, BHA, NEW, NEW, WBA, BUR, FUL, CPL, SHU, FUL

    Meets all your criteria of avoiding the Top 8 and having home fixtures. Very little transfer cost too.