Pro Pundits - Andy

The key FPL lessons I learned from Gameweek 1 of the new season

What have I learned from Gameweek 1? It’s the same every year. Don’t panic after just one Gameweek. Remember why you chose those players. If you can save a transfer that’s ideal.

All words of wisdom we heard in pre-season, which is why less than 24 hours after Gameweek 1 ending I’ve considered no transfers, one transfer and even a hit! Fantasy Premier League is truly back.

In this article I want to see if there’s anything we can take away from Gameweek 1. It should be noted that making rash decisions based on one Gameweek is often a fools game, but we should always try and spot what we can, especially this early on.

Everton

How Spurs and Everton's new signings fared in their FPL Gameweek 1 debuts

Lots was made of Everton’s sub-par performances during Project Restart. Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.0m) didn’t score at all, and they looked as a whole, very poor as a team.

Fast-forward to signing a whole new midfield in Allan (£5.5m), Abdoulaye Doucouré (£5.5m) and James Rodríguez (£7.5m), and it’s suddenly a whole different story.

The midfield three, which included Allan, Doucouré and André Gomes (£5.5m) looked like it had been playing together for years, and Rodríguez looked like that player that some people probably haven’t seen play since the World Cup in 2014. He constantly caused Ben Davies (£5.0m) issues even without pace on his side, and with five chances created against a strong enough Tottenham Hotspur side, we should be taking note.

It’s also worth noting that Everton’s game plan was to seemingly target the side of Matt Doherty (£6.0m), with Rodríguez often playing balls out to Richarlison. With West Brom, Crystal Palace and Brighton up next it may be something they continue to try, although Tariq Lamptey (£4.5m) might have something to say about that in the Brighton game.

Just to quickly touch on Lucas Digne (£6.0m) as well. It was interesting to see that Rodríguez didn’t monopolise set pieces, and Digne was still on lots of corners and free-kicks, which is ultimately where his assist came from. He only created one chance in the game, but with more freedom against teams that don’t have a marauding full back like Doherty, he could still be a great option, especially with the new look midfield giving the defence more protection.

Sheffield United

Chelsea

I’ve been pretty vocal in my excitement for Chelsea players this season but it might take a bit longer for their new signings to gel together like Everton’s did. Without some of their key players being fit, I’m looking at your Christian Pulisic (£8.5m) and Hakim Ziyech (£8.0m), it may be more sensible to hold off on loading up too soon.

They beat Brighton 3-1 but it wasn’t convincing. The xG for the game was Brighton 1.05 v 1.22 Chelsea..

Reece James (£5.0m) rewarded owners handsomely, but I’m not expecting him to score a 20 yard goal every week. And the third goal was helped through a significant deflection.

It might be harsh but I also thought Kepa Arrizabalaga (£5.0m) was at fault for the goal they did concede, and it wouldn’t be the first time. I think I’ll continue avoiding Chelsea defenders until a replacement comes in (which may be soon), despite their relatively good underlying numbers last year.

In attack to say Kai Havertz (£8.5m) didn’t look good would probably be an understatement. He created just one chance and had zero shots. It’s too quick to write him off, he’s a young player, playing in a new team, in a new league, but for owners it may be concerning with Liverpool (home) up next. When Pulisic and Ziyech are finally fit we should see Havertz move more centrally, rather than playing out wide and that should broaden his points potential.

I don’t think Havertz is necessarily a rush to sell, but the timelines on certain injuries to other players in the squad would help me if I had to make that decision. After Liverpool it’s West Brom, Crystal Palace and Southampton up next, so there’s certainly some promise there.

For any promise Havertz didn’t show, Timo Werner (£9.5m)  defintiely did. He managed five shots in the box, and also won the penalty. His speed in the transition from defence to attack will be huge, and playing off the shoulder against Liverpool could see plenty of counter attacking opportunities. Just an assist is hard to swallow for his 46.5% owners, but a goal looks to be right around the corner.

Liverpool

value-players-2020-21

This probably isn’t news to some, but the Liverpool defence is still pretty good, despite heavy transfers out for the likes of Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m)

Leeds United may have impressed and scored three goals, but this came from an xG of just 0.32. On another day Leeds may not have scored at all.

What was most worrying to me was Virgil van Dijk (£6.5m) making another mistake and gifting Patrick Bamford (£5.6m) a goal. It’s easy to put those mistakes down to a league winning hangover, but we don’t have that excuse now and it’s something to monitor – hopefully just first game of the season rustiness. 

I don’t think we should have been expecting too many clean sheets from Leeds, Chelsea and Arsenal in the first three Gameweeks, players like Andrew Robertson (£7.0m) and Alexander-Arnold are long term holds after all, which is why the Leeds result doesn’t put me off when you look at the underlying numbers.

In attack, Mohammad Salah (£12.0m) owners can probably consider themselves a little lucky (I know I do), to have gotten two penalties in one game. Although it’s worth noting for a lot of people getting penalties for the same price as Sadio Mané (£12.0m) was key reason behind the pick.

From an “eye test” perspective Salah looked sharp, and any pre-season lack of form or sharpness was not to be seen. The same can’t be said of Mané who I thought looked poor at times with sloppy passing that broke down some attacks.

But when you look at the underlying numbers, both Salah (0.38) and Mané (0.27) had fairly similar npXG and it’s probably not worth panicking too much after just one Gameweek. Although for some people perhaps it’s just dawned on them that penalties can be very handy in FPL, and Salah is probably worth owning long term whilst they are the same price.

For more detailed information on every match played in Gameweek 1, please check out the Scout Notes articles written by David and Neale, linked below. These include in-depth analysis as well as some exclusive additional sections for Premium Members.

FPL Lessons Learned from Gameweek 1

3,219 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Lav
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Vinagre to Coleman done. Play it smart with no hit?

    McCarthy
    TAA Coleman Davies Taylor
    Salah Auba Son ASM
    Werner Ings

    4.0 Mitchell Brewster Gordon

    1. Anneheim
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Yup. Good team. Good luck for this week

      1. Lav
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Cheers

    2. Shteve
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Not worried about Coleman rotation?

      1. Lav
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        With Kenny? Maybe down the line but not now. Captain of the side, looked great at the weekend. Other option was Mina, but I would worry about him slightly once Holgate is back & if Tomori comes on loan and breaks through. In the end, Coleman should last until the eventual first WC.

        1. Shteve
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Yeah, there was a lot of talk about Kenny getting in there but prob just talk. Team looks good.

    3. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Looks good to go!

  2. Luton_Fan
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    A. Son to rashford. Next gw ings to Jiminez
    B. Ings to martial. Son to pulisic in gw4

    Tia

    1. iL PiStOlErO
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B may be good

    2. Lav
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A for me, only just. Jimenez looks great especially with those fixtures.

  3. Wivanee
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Who is your most favoured differential?
    I think Maddison @ 7m is going to be a steal

    1. Luton_Fan
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      James

      1. Wivanee
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        DCL > James for me. If I went James I'd be stuck with Wilson, Mitro or Watkins

    2. One Man
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Good shout. Maddison has been somewhat overlooked, and is a quality no10. 7m is a good price for him.

  4. George Agdgdgwngo
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Regretting not owning DCL from the offset. He could be the best value striker in the game with the service he’s going to get.

    Adams to DCL, but how do I raise the extra 1m?

    0.0m in bank
    McCarthy, button
    Taa, Taylor, lascelles, Holding, Mitchell
    Salah, Auba, Bruno, ASM, Bissouma
    Werner, Adams, Wilson

    1. Anneheim
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Auba to KDB/Sterling gives you 0.5
      Werner to Martials give you another 0.5
      TAA to Robertson gives you another 0.5
      ASM to Soucek gives you another 0.5

      Pick any two out of 4 above. Don't see any other option.

      1. George Agdgdgwngo
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Can’t loose Auba before the weekend

    2. Warby84
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Trent to Van Dijk but I wouldn’t myself...

      1. George Agdgdgwngo
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Only way I can see is asm to a 4.5m.

        1. Dynamic Duos
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Bruno to Rashford

  5. alsybach
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Haven’t commented for AGES on here but do miss the craic!
    I’ve decided to wild card and came up with the following..

    Any constructive criticism greatly received!

    McCarthy / Nyland
    Digne- Gabriel- James- Mitchell- Justin
    Salah-Bruno-Harrison-Hendricks-Aubameyang
    Calvert L- Martial- Bamford

    Any changes?

    1. Anneheim
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Honestly, feels like point chasing from GW1. Sorry.

      1. Wivanee
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        This. You're a week late lad

  6. mitre
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    ................Ryan
    .......Digne AWB Justin
    Auba Salah Greenwood Klich
    .....Martial Jimenez DCL
    Bench: McCarthy, Saiss, Mitchell, Reed

    current WC team, is it madness to go without kdb and bruno?

    1. noquarternt
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      You’ll probably need another wildcard next week.

    2. George Agdgdgwngo
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Yes

    3. Willmissudimitrypayet
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      would look at lamptey, hamez, james, robertson just to mention some

    4. One Man
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Good, but Auba is really only viable for one more gw. Maybe better to start with Bruno and use the 1.5m on defence ?

    5. One Man
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Or else go with DeBruyne

  7. some witty pun
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Would you waste a FT to transfer out Saliba to avoid the 0.1 drop?
    I don't need him to play. Alternatively I would probably do Robbo/TAA to Digne

    1. 11SPECIALONE11
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I have the same dilemma with Saka

      In your case I would look to swap Saliba out for Lamptey

    2. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      No. Waste of a transfer if you're not playing him.

  8. grooveymatt65
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Hi guys, my team is:

    McCarthy Martin

    TAA, Ayling, Justin Mitchell Bernado

    Salah Son Aubameyang (c) Alli Bissouma

    Werner Mitrovic Adams

    (0.0 itb)

    What would you do?

    1. Alli to Rodriguez for free
    2. Alli to Greenwood and Mitrovic to Wilson for a hit
    3. Save
    4. Other

    thanks!!!

    1. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      2 spurs mids is overkill but I’d be hesitant to take an early hit.
      If you feel James will be good fantasy player then make that move

    2. One Man
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Not convinced by James yet. SAVE. Maybe move out Alli and Adams next week for Jimmy and someone.

  9. George Agdgdgwngo
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Need a 4.5m to play a few gws

    1. Big_Andy_GAWA
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      What position?! Lol.

      1. George Agdgdgwngo
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Ah sorry. A mid

        1. Dynamic Duos
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Bissouma

  10. FPL_Crisis
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    So seems like all the cool kids are doing Ings to Martial this week. This was on my radar which is why I kept the 0.5 itb. Would you make this move now with pending price change or save for 2FT. Have Pulisic too and I don’t think he will start this weekend- Soucek would be first sub
    I guess another way of saying, will Martial outperform Ings enough to warrant a move this week?
    Those damn price changes....

    1. Anneheim
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      HMC have the same decision. I have not made this change and I am going with Ings and banking my FT. While you have Pulisic to worry about which is a pressing concern over ings Imo.

      1. FPL_Crisis
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Will you be priced out by not making the move? That’s my main concern and United fixtures look good

        1. Anneheim
          • 3 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Plan is to downgrade Auba --> KDB/Sterling and then upgrade Ings --> Martial if martial passes the eye test and/or Ings is not performing. If you look at the fixtures, i honestly feel Southamption has good next 3 fixtures. Manutd while the fixture difficulty shows neutral, those are low scoring games they have.

          I thought about it a lot, i think waiting one more GW to see how the city/United assets play isn't make or break. Worst case Ings gets 2 point and martial 13. Can live with it 😀

    2. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Will Greenwood start?

  11. AzzaroMax99
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    McCarthy
    VVD Davies Ayling
    Auba(C) Salah Havertz Soucek
    Kane Ings Mitrovic

    Steer Anguissa Johnson Vinagre

    All good? G2G for gw2?
    If no other issues, will save FT and for gw3 the plan is Kane+Soucek+Auba to Martial+KDb+Foden (-4)

  12. Forza Papac
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    What time are price changes?

    1. George Agdgdgwngo
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      1am?

      1. Big_Andy_GAWA
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        After 2am GMT, innit? Or has it changed this year...?

    2. Avery
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      2:30am GMT

  13. Big_Andy_GAWA
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Hi All,

    Could have sworn I had 2 million ITB, but alas, no; it's only a million. Was intending to do Alli to Rash, but now it'll have to be Greenwood. But will he start after all the shenanigans with him in the past couple of weeks??

    Thanks.

    1. Holding Matip
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      If Maguire is still captain after his horror show, I'd bet Greenwood will still be starting

  14. Viper
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Havertz & Mitrovic -> James Rodriguez & DCL (-4)..

    A. Good moves

    B. Knee jerk central already

    1. Big_Andy_GAWA
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Not fancy United mids over Everton?

      1. Viper
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Greenwood definitely an option.

        Don't have the funds for anyone else

    2. Cowboy John
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B

    3. Shteve
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Can understand one Everton attacker but two is a bit knee jerky after one good performance against a woeful spurs display

    4. George Agdgdgwngo
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Just DCL. He’s the spearhead of the everton Attack. More often than not he’s always in the right place.

      Think he could be the best value striker this season

      1. Viper
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Don't have funds. The first transfer allows it

  15. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    It's surprising to see so many WC teams without Liverpool defence. Trent and Robbo are getting 12-15 attacking returns every season plus loads of clean sheets. They haven't been great at the back lately - I'll admit that, but still...

    So who should I pick on my Wildcard?

    A) Trent (4-4-2)
    B) James Rodriguez (3-5-2)

    1. Viper
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I really want to say B but realistically A will win out

    2. Shteve
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A

      1. Joyce1998
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        I like trent but I'm a Liverpool fan so I've to say A mate

    3. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Thanks all

  16. Pariße
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Is Justin a longterm starter for Leicester?

    1. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Prob not when Pereira's fit in a few weeks. Though he's doing well, wouldn't sell him until close to Pereira return depending on team news.

    2. Viper
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Probably not. When Pereira comes back he's in trouble

  17. 11SPECIALONE11
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    SAKA looking like he may drop in price this week if not tonight (currently on -98).

    What are the other 5.5 magic beans I should consider??

    1. Pariße
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Keep the boy, might do some magic in the next one.

      1. 11SPECIALONE11
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Yea probably a good idea

        It would be for a hit as well if I moved him on

        Really rate him but he is competing with Willian and Pepe

        1. Pariße
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Tbh even Niles and Bellerin could make way for him.

  18. DA Minnion (Former great)
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Start Nyland or McCarthy?

    1. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Nyland, but tight call. Are Villa not looking to sign Martinez?

  19. Ange Ball
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Worth minus 4

    Kane Son out for Fernandez Calvert

    Also anyone know what time price changes still 1am?

    1. Holding Matip
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Not worth for me
      Price changes normally 2am

    2. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      not worth it this gw

  20. hazzlehoff
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    McCarthy
    Taa-kwp-Justin-(Mitchell)-(vinagre)
    Salah-auba-foden-Pulisic-(saka)
    Werner-mitro-(Brewster)

    1ft - 2m itb
    A) Pulisic>Fernandez (Pre price rise) or rashford
    B) saka>Greenwood or rodriguez

    1. Holding Matip
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A to Fernandes

  21. Sloane426
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Alli to Rodríguez or save a transfer?

    1. thepeen555
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      If you are going to want yo do it anyway and would always be 1 of the transfers, then go ahead

      1. Sloane426
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Was hoping to hold Alli until
        GW4 to replace with chelsea mid.

    2. Big_Andy_GAWA
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I'm either doing that same transfer, or alternatively Alli to Greenwood.

  22. DRIZ ✅
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Anyone going without Manutd and Mancity players for GW2?

    1. George Agdgdgwngo
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Without KDB gw 2. He’ll come in gw 3

    2. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Yes. Wait and see how they go, formation etc.

    3. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      yup, this season i am not taking anywhere near as many hits, and not wasting a wc after a one week sample size 🙂

      1. GreennRed
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        I say that every season 🙂

    4. Holding Matip
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Yep, will wait and see if the budget options are worthwhile (Foden/mahrez/greenwood/dan james)

    5. Big_Andy_GAWA
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Possibly! Happy enough to go without City players until GW3. Either United or Everton mid. for GW2...

  23. George Agdgdgwngo
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Thinking about taking Trent out (just for a few weeks)

    How does this sound?

    Trent & Adams > Digne & DCL

    1. thepeen555
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Sounds like you are relying on everton to do well

      1. George Agdgdgwngo
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Fixtures look great

        1. Salah’s Sonnet
          • 12 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Chasing points more like? moves not worth it btw, but do what you gotta do 🙂

    2. Holding Matip
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I wouldn't take TAA out considering Chelsea are so poor defensively from set pieces

      1. George Agdgdgwngo
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Ok. Maybe a moment of madness on taa. Still think DCL is a very solid pick

        1. Zimo
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          But not for a hit

  24. borko
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    i made the transfer asm to klich...should i go...a) azpi - digne(-4),b)kwp - digne,son-james rodriguez(-8) or c) none

    1. Big_Andy_GAWA
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      ASM Newcastle mid.?? 😮

      1. borko
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        yup...little bit rush decision...

  25. Joyce1998
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    is this castagne guy nailed on

    1. Zimo
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Ya

  26. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Evening all.

    Steer
    TAA / Davies / Justin / KWP
    Salah / Aubameyang / Son / ASM
    Werner / Ings

    McCarthy // Bissouma / Mitchell / Brewster

    Am I mad for considering the below?
    A) TAA / Son >> Digne / Fernandes (Saiss or Jimenez in the following GW)

    Or keep it simple:
    B) Ings / Martial (Auba > Fernandes/KDB in the following GW)

    Everton look decent for a CS or two in the next three.

    1. TheComRED-YNWA
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I'm considering the same TAA/Son to Digne/Bruno and then bringing back TAA later

  27. TheComRED-YNWA
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    A) TAA+Son > Digne+Bruno and get TAA back in 2-3weeks after moving money with FTs
    B) Son+Adams>Jorginho+Martial and get Digne in next gw for a hit

    1. George Agdgdgwngo
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I like A, but you need balls of steel

    2. Luton_Fan
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A.is risky but could pay off handsomely

    3. TheComRED-YNWA
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I went for it. Very nervous but I think it's a risk worth taking. Only time will tell. Now I just need to work on gettting TAA back asap.

  28. ankj70
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Will Saliba fall tonight / before gw 2?

    1. Holding Matip
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Yes

    2. JURGENAUT
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Yep

  29. FPL Blow-In
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Havertz owners holding or shifting to JRod?

    1. JURGENAUT
      • 3 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Holding for now

  30. sandman58
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    To any Leeds fans out there....whos the better option please..
    A) Harrison
    B) Klich

    1. Zimo
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Not a leeds fan but harrison looked more likely to get an attacking return than klich however klich is on penalties.