Pro Pundits - Andy

The key FPL lessons I learned from Gameweek 1 of the new season

What have I learned from Gameweek 1? It’s the same every year. Don’t panic after just one Gameweek. Remember why you chose those players. If you can save a transfer that’s ideal.

All words of wisdom we heard in pre-season, which is why less than 24 hours after Gameweek 1 ending I’ve considered no transfers, one transfer and even a hit! Fantasy Premier League is truly back.

In this article I want to see if there’s anything we can take away from Gameweek 1. It should be noted that making rash decisions based on one Gameweek is often a fools game, but we should always try and spot what we can, especially this early on.

Everton

How Spurs and Everton's new signings fared in their FPL Gameweek 1 debuts

Lots was made of Everton’s sub-par performances during Project Restart. Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.0m) didn’t score at all, and they looked as a whole, very poor as a team.

Fast-forward to signing a whole new midfield in Allan (£5.5m), Abdoulaye Doucouré (£5.5m) and James Rodríguez (£7.5m), and it’s suddenly a whole different story.

The midfield three, which included Allan, Doucouré and André Gomes (£5.5m) looked like it had been playing together for years, and Rodríguez looked like that player that some people probably haven’t seen play since the World Cup in 2014. He constantly caused Ben Davies (£5.0m) issues even without pace on his side, and with five chances created against a strong enough Tottenham Hotspur side, we should be taking note.

It’s also worth noting that Everton’s game plan was to seemingly target the side of Matt Doherty (£6.0m), with Rodríguez often playing balls out to Richarlison. With West Brom, Crystal Palace and Brighton up next it may be something they continue to try, although Tariq Lamptey (£4.5m) might have something to say about that in the Brighton game.

Just to quickly touch on Lucas Digne (£6.0m) as well. It was interesting to see that Rodríguez didn’t monopolise set pieces, and Digne was still on lots of corners and free-kicks, which is ultimately where his assist came from. He only created one chance in the game, but with more freedom against teams that don’t have a marauding full back like Doherty, he could still be a great option, especially with the new look midfield giving the defence more protection.

Sheffield United

Chelsea

I’ve been pretty vocal in my excitement for Chelsea players this season but it might take a bit longer for their new signings to gel together like Everton’s did. Without some of their key players being fit, I’m looking at your Christian Pulisic (£8.5m) and Hakim Ziyech (£8.0m), it may be more sensible to hold off on loading up too soon.

They beat Brighton 3-1 but it wasn’t convincing. The xG for the game was Brighton 1.05 v 1.22 Chelsea..

Reece James (£5.0m) rewarded owners handsomely, but I’m not expecting him to score a 20 yard goal every week. And the third goal was helped through a significant deflection.

It might be harsh but I also thought Kepa Arrizabalaga (£5.0m) was at fault for the goal they did concede, and it wouldn’t be the first time. I think I’ll continue avoiding Chelsea defenders until a replacement comes in (which may be soon), despite their relatively good underlying numbers last year.

In attack to say Kai Havertz (£8.5m) didn’t look good would probably be an understatement. He created just one chance and had zero shots. It’s too quick to write him off, he’s a young player, playing in a new team, in a new league, but for owners it may be concerning with Liverpool (home) up next. When Pulisic and Ziyech are finally fit we should see Havertz move more centrally, rather than playing out wide and that should broaden his points potential.

I don’t think Havertz is necessarily a rush to sell, but the timelines on certain injuries to other players in the squad would help me if I had to make that decision. After Liverpool it’s West Brom, Crystal Palace and Southampton up next, so there’s certainly some promise there.

For any promise Havertz didn’t show, Timo Werner (£9.5m)  defintiely did. He managed five shots in the box, and also won the penalty. His speed in the transition from defence to attack will be huge, and playing off the shoulder against Liverpool could see plenty of counter attacking opportunities. Just an assist is hard to swallow for his 46.5% owners, but a goal looks to be right around the corner.

Liverpool

value-players-2020-21

This probably isn’t news to some, but the Liverpool defence is still pretty good, despite heavy transfers out for the likes of Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m)

Leeds United may have impressed and scored three goals, but this came from an xG of just 0.32. On another day Leeds may not have scored at all.

What was most worrying to me was Virgil van Dijk (£6.5m) making another mistake and gifting Patrick Bamford (£5.6m) a goal. It’s easy to put those mistakes down to a league winning hangover, but we don’t have that excuse now and it’s something to monitor – hopefully just first game of the season rustiness. 

I don’t think we should have been expecting too many clean sheets from Leeds, Chelsea and Arsenal in the first three Gameweeks, players like Andrew Robertson (£7.0m) and Alexander-Arnold are long term holds after all, which is why the Leeds result doesn’t put me off when you look at the underlying numbers.

In attack, Mohammad Salah (£12.0m) owners can probably consider themselves a little lucky (I know I do), to have gotten two penalties in one game. Although it’s worth noting for a lot of people getting penalties for the same price as Sadio Mané (£12.0m) was key reason behind the pick.

From an “eye test” perspective Salah looked sharp, and any pre-season lack of form or sharpness was not to be seen. The same can’t be said of Mané who I thought looked poor at times with sloppy passing that broke down some attacks.

But when you look at the underlying numbers, both Salah (0.38) and Mané (0.27) had fairly similar npXG and it’s probably not worth panicking too much after just one Gameweek. Although for some people perhaps it’s just dawned on them that penalties can be very handy in FPL, and Salah is probably worth owning long term whilst they are the same price.

For more detailed information on every match played in Gameweek 1, please check out the Scout Notes articles written by David and Neale, linked below. These include in-depth analysis as well as some exclusive additional sections for Premium Members.

FPL Lessons Learned from Gameweek 1

3,219 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Saka Punch
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Mane -> Bruno (-4)

    Yay or Nay?

    1. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      What was the other transfer?

      1. Saka Punch
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Ings -> Martial

        1. Forever In Our Shadow
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Then no. 1 is enough. See how Utd go against Palace.

    2. All about the galacticos
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      good move plus 0.2m swing, why not

    3. iL PiStOlErO
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      no

  2. 420king
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    2m ITB:

    A) Son to Bruno for free
    B) Son and Werner to KDB and Martial for -4

    Team is:
    McCarthy
    TAA Davies Egan Justin
    Salah Auba Son ASM
    Werner* Adams
    (Walton Burke Taylor Brewster)

    1. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A only.

      1. 420king
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Yeah, no hit looks better, but I have a pretty weak bench in case Werner doesn't play.

        1. Forever In Our Shadow
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Werner will play. He seemed pretty adamant he would be fit. He appears to be a bit of a beast and a missing leg would stop him. Great attitude. Mourinho must be sooo jealous.

          1. 420king
            • 9 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            And has West Brom after that...yeah, maybe I should hold. Just worried about those price rises. Martial and KDB could be essential later.

            1. Forever In Our Shadow
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              3 years, 6 months ago

              Werner is a season keeper imo. (For now at least obviously) I have done a -8 Havertz Ings Salah to Bruno KDB DCL to give you my thoughts. Price rises on my mind too. This early I believe play hard or go home. 😉

              1. Pariße
                • 9 Years
                3 years, 6 months ago

                Selling a hattrick hero for -8 is hardly reasonable though.

                1. Forever In Our Shadow
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  3 years, 6 months ago

                  That was last gw.

                2. 420king
                  • 9 Years
                  3 years, 6 months ago

                  Well it was only -4 and he probably needed to sell him to get funds for other two, but yeah, it's a move that can easily backfire. That's why I'm not sure about mine.

              2. fish&chips
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 13 Years
                3 years, 6 months ago

                Good luck but that move has the potential to really hurt!! Hope it works out for you.

                1. Forever In Our Shadow
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  3 years, 6 months ago

                  It may only be for a week. Just felt Auba this week was better value. Might even get Mane in for Auba gw 3.

  3. flippetyflop
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    A, B, or C please guys.

    I'm a little worried that a lot of my players are playing against each other this weekend.

    Mcarthy/Fabri
    TAA/Doherty/Saiss/Mitchell/Ayling
    Salah/Son/Auba/Soucek/Bissouma
    Werner/Antonio/Adams

    A - Antonio to Wilson
    B - Adams to ??
    C - Save

    1. Snevitz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      C, you have a good team for next week already and the extra transfer will come in handy next week

      1. fish&chips
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        This

  4. GreennRed
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    https://youtu.be/h5siYVIW2aE

    Burton 1 Villa 3. Watkins, Grealish, Davis.

  5. George Agdgdgwngo
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Hit me with a decent 4.5m for the next few weeks. Not Bissouma

    1. 420king
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      To do what with?

      1. George Agdgdgwngo
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Is smallbone just filling in for Armstrong?

    2. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Not to play surely?

      1. George Agdgdgwngo
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Just for a few weeks. Would rotate with Bissouma and Taylor.

        1. Forever In Our Shadow
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          I would prefer another 4.5 defender to be honest. Much better value. Ayling Justin etc.

    3. diabydoesgallas
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Jamal Lewis

  6. ol3andre
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    I am I the only one really wanting to transfer Werner to Martial?

    1. George Agdgdgwngo
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Thought about it, but moved on. Werner looks a season keeper

    2. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Bruno / Rashford are the ones you want. Keep Werner.

    3. Nightf0x
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      No im thinking the same as i want ings next gw but timo is better longterm option

    4. Snevitz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Werner looked good, I'll be keeping him for a while but then I have a defence to sort out.

    5. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I was going to but going to stick to my original plan of Son & Auba > KDB & Bruno GW3

  7. Joyce1998
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    which back 3 do you prefer??

    A- trent, saiss, justin,
    B- vvd, castagne, saiss,
    C- robertson, saiss, james,

    1. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A.

    2. Snevitz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A

    3. iL PiStOlErO
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      a or c

    4. Boberella
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A with Lamptey instead of Justin

  8. mitre
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Ryan
    Digne Justin Davies
    KDB Salah Bruno Klich
    Martial Wilson DCL

    McCarthy, Saiss, Reed, Mitchell

    good to go?

    1. TheSteel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Hey, thats last weeks top 11

  9. Kasper the ghost keeper
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Would you rather
    A) Fernandes and DCL
    B) James and Martial (+1m)

    1. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I’ve gone A. DCL looks like a real bargain with the new look midfield.

    2. Dynamic Duos
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B

    3. All about the galacticos
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B just

  10. Ray In Bruges.
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Why is everyone getting rid of Ings? How did one game suddenly make him a bad option?

    1. Kasper the ghost keeper
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      He was there as a placeholder for Martial for many

    2. Snevitz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      No idea, he has a good run of fixtures and could easily have scored against Palace. I'll be sticking for a while yet.

    3. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      DCL. Martial etc. 8.5 is not the best value like he has been the last 2 seasons.

      1. Snevitz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        If he gets similar points to last season then it's good value.

        1. Forever In Our Shadow
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          But not as good value as last season. And it’s an if.

          1. Snevitz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            Obviously not, which forwards do you think offer better value?

            1. Forever In Our Shadow
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              3 years, 6 months ago

              Lower. DCL. Wilson.

              Upper. Jimi. Martial. Werner. Vardy.

              At 6.0 starting price Ings was a red hot bargain. Even his finishing price of 7.6 would be good value but 8.5 starting price it just isn’t a bargain.

              1. Snevitz
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                3 years, 6 months ago

                We'll have to disagree on that, the only one on that list that I agree with is Werner.

    4. GreennRed
      • 12 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Still a good option.

    5. Pariße
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Southampton players were in fashion prior to GW 1. Now they lost a loseable game and everyone realized how stupid stocking up on them was. Even Ings, he won’t repeat what he managed last season.

      1. Forever In Our Shadow
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        THIS. Over priced at 8.5.

    6. Boberella
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I'm keeping him for now (Other priorities) but I do agree with others that he is a tad overpriced. Pretty good fixtures though, so he will definitely get decent points over the next 8 or so.

  11. mlm
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    McCarthy (Nyland)
    TAA Doherty Davies (KWP Mitchell)
    Salah Auba(c) Son ASM (Bissouma)
    Werner Mitrovic Adams

    0.0 ITB

    Any suggestions??

  12. leroybrown84
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    need some advice guys, any ideas on what to do with this lot.....

    McCarthy (Button)
    Saiss Justin Lewis (Lamptey) (Mitchell)
    Willian (c) Rodriguez Salah Fernandes De Bruyne
    Jiminez Wilson (Brewster)

    Thanks!

  13. Ray In Bruges.
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    McCarthy (Nyland)
    TAA KWP Justin (Mitchell, Vinagre**)
    Fernandes JRod Auba ASM Traore
    Werner Ings** (Mitrovic)

    Anything worth a hit?

  14. The King
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Are Martial, Wilson or Fernandes looking like going up in price Tonight?

    1. All about the galacticos
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      fernandes likely, martial 50/50, wilson looks price locked

    2. Boberella
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Wilson price locked until tomorrow apparently. (Along with J Rod)

      1. AF90
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Can you or anyone else explain why? Thanks

  15. Big boy Bowen
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    A or B please chaps?

    A) Digne | Doherty | 4.5 mid
    B) 4.5 def | 4.5 def | James Rodriguez

    Thanks

    1. All about the galacticos
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A

      1. Big boy Bowen
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Thanks

    2. iL PiStOlErO
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      a

      1. Big boy Bowen
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Cheers

  16. Nightf0x
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Which?

    A) werner/ings to martial, gw3 asm/ali to podence
    B) werner/ings ali -4 to dcl rash, gw3 ings/werner to jimi
    C) roll ft

  17. TheSteel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Seems silly to sell Salah right now for Bruno. Think ill save transfer and sort something out with 2 FT

  18. bazbestos
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Is -12 too much or do I wildcard? I have several players going down in price (Havertz Alli Vinagre) and going to be priced out of future moves.

    1. All about the galacticos
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      depends on your score. If you scored 100+, i'd take the -12. if already chasing WC

      1. bazbestos
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        It was a poor week, 56. I’ve never ever played wildcard this early (last year I held until Xmas) but I think I need to.

        1. Snevitz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          You were above average, that's not a poor week.

        2. All about the galacticos
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          56 is not a disaster. I don't take -12 to 44.
          i had a decent score and hit the WC, i decided in advance due to utd/city.
          I have different view to the first WC, i tend to use it whenever need must, as there are no double gameweeks before xmas.

  19. One Man
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Grealish, Foden Or Zaha for the next ?

    1. One Man
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      10

    2. All about the galacticos
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Zaha

  20. Joyce1998
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    leaning towards B

    A- werner, vvd
    or
    B- jimmy, trent

    1. George Agdgdgwngo
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Yeah probably B

    2. One Man
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B. Jimmy's fixtures just shade it. But werner in the long run I'd say.

  21. Willmissudimitrypayet
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    2 FT, 0 ITB

    Looking at Havertz, Ings and Son out for Hamez, Martial and sir Rashford.

    What do you think?

    1. TheSteel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      How do you have 2FT?

      1. Willmissudimitrypayet
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        FPL towers don't allow me to say that.

        But how about the transfers?

        1. TheSteel
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          I wouldnt have Martial with the other two United.

  22. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Is Martial going to rise in price tonight?

    1. iL PiStOlErO
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Probably yes.

    2. All about the galacticos
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I'd say no, but it wouldn't surprise me, I've seen people rise from under 90% on fplstatistics

  23. MattSmitty
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    A. Bruno Fernandes / VVD
    B. Rashford / TAA

    1. iL PiStOlErO
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      b

    2. All about the galacticos
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      a

    3. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A

  24. MartialMatas
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Alli to Bruno is the obvious move. Right?

    Meslier
    TAA Robertson Dier
    Aubameyang Havertz Alli Foden Soucek
    Werner DCL

    Steer KWP Brewster Ferguson

    1ft £2.5m itb

    1. Willmissudimitrypayet
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      or Havertz? or maybe both out

  25. Dutchy
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Start Lamptey or Saiss

    1. Willmissudimitrypayet
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      lamptey

    2. iL PiStOlErO
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Lamps

  26. Firefoxed
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    A)Alli to james or
    B) Alli and davis to bissouma and dcl - 4

    1. iL PiStOlErO
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A

    2. MartialMatas
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Why on earth would you want James?

      1. Firefoxed
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        This is james Rodriguez should have been clear lol

        1. MartialMatas
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          That makes a lot more sense. A

  27. George Agdgdgwngo
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Someone talk me out of this?

    ASM & Adams > DCL & Smallbone

    1. MartialMatas
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Taking a hit for cheap players after 1 weeks has with limited data

    2. 420king
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Nah

  28. The King
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    A) Martial and greenwood

    Or

    B) Wilson and Fernandes

    Cheers 🙂

    1. iL PiStOlErO
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      b

    2. TheSteel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B contains the top scorer in the game this year, so B for me. A is decent too

  29. Joyce1998
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    if on wc
    currently on sterling as a explosive differential but most going with kdb

    sterling
    or
    kdb

    1. iL PiStOlErO
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Raz

    2. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      KDB steady points. Raz is explosive as you say. KDB going up in price. I’d go KDB. If you want to change you can easily. If you go Raz and you want KDB you have to down grade somewhere else.

  30. Pilgrim62
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Kean or Ings
    to
    Martial ?

    Need to make decision asap.

    1. Pilgrim62
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      *Kane

    2. Forever In Our Shadow
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Ings