Pro Pundits - Simon

The House’s Money: Why maintaining a good start to the FPL season is so difficult

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times …it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.”

  • Charles Dickens, ‘A Tale of Two Cities’.

Dickens may not have been speaking specifically about the opening Gameweeks of an FPL season (we’ll never know for sure) but his words are, nonetheless, fairly appropriate. While it has, indeed, been a tale of two Gameweeks thus far, there will be some who have done far, far better than others.

I love the start of a new FPL campaign as much as the next Fantasy manager but, I have to admit, it’s also among the most challenging parts to navigate successfully. Not only are we operating with very little information, but many of us also have to deal with the fact that some mini-league rivals have, somehow, already opened up what might appear to be unassailable leads.

Of course, this is the part of the season where we regularly preach patience and encourage people to avoid panic-driven decisions that they might later regret. Phrases like ‘it’s a marathon, not a sprint’ are commonplace on FPL forums and we might also comfort ourselves with our vague childhood memories of a story about a race between a tortoise and a hare.

This article, however, will focus on why those people who have shot to the front probably won’t stay there, and why those chasing shouldn’t panic, yet.

The House Money Effect

Gamblers and investors, in particular, may be familiar with the ‘House Money Effect’, a cognitive bias first popularised by Nobel Prize-winning economist Richard Thaler. 

Essentially, the House Money Effect draws off the principles of ‘mental accounting’; the idea that we categorise money and expenditures into different accounts in our mind, and we evaluate outcomes in relation to these. 

So, for example, we might have mental accounts such as ‘beer money’, ‘college funds’ or ‘holiday money.’

The House Money Effect often occurs when we receive money in an atypical manner. For example; winning a bet, receiving a bonus or profiting from an investment. 

Behavioural psychologists have observed that people take far greater risks with such sums than they would with their savings or regular earnings. They also find that people also tend to be more generous with such windfalls than they might otherwise be.

The proposed reason for this phenomenon is that, psychologically, people don’t perceive these sums to really be their money, it goes into a completely different mental account to money earned in the normal way. It’s the casinos or ‘the house’s money’ and, thus, we tend to treat it that way. At best, we make more money from the risks we take with it. And at worst, we end up with our original stake, no better or worse off than we were before and, because we think we’ll be okay with either outcome, we’re inclined to treat it as fun money.

I would argue that, due to their windfall of FPL points, Fantasy managers who do very well in the opening few Gameweeks are substantially more at risk of succumbing to the House Money Effect than normal. 

This might translate into them spending some of those points via hits, making riskier transfers, making transfers when it might have been objectively more sensible to save them or simply being less rigorous in their selections, captaincy or transfer decisions. 

Now, this isn’t to say that high-flying managers simply got there by luck, much in same as an investor doesn’t profit entirely by luck, it’s simply stating that, due to this cognitive bias, the extra points they have scored may seem like ‘house money’ to them, and they’re likely to be more inclined to risk them as a result. 

Essentially; if they blow their lead, they’re no worse off than their competitors and this, mentally, becomes their baseline.

How Spurs and Everton's new signings fared in their FPL Gameweek 1 debuts 1

There is some evidence that may support this having already occurred too. Between Gameweeks 1 and 2, the average number of points spent on transfers via hits by FPL managers was 2.28 points overall but, among the Top 10k, this rose almost 20% to 2.72. 

Rationally-speaking, the Top 10k should have had less cause to make any transfers, let alone take hits, based on Gameweek 1 but, instead, they made more transfers and spent more points on them. 

The Top 10k also scored fewer gross points on average than the overall (53.27 vs 59.55). Naturally, in a single gameweek, this could simply be luck, but it could also be a result of less rigorous decision-making caused by the House Money Effect.

So, for those chasing, the key lessons from this are to not panic, to not make the same mistakes that the people above you probably will, and to take advantage of these mistakes to close the gap. That means avoiding hits, risky captaincies and panic moves like Wildcarding unnecessarily. 

It is worth bearing in mind that many of those who held firm with their Gameweek 1 squad profited as a result in Gameweek 2. As Guns ‘n’ Roses singer Axl Rose once said, “All we need is a little patience” though, again, it’s unclear whether he was talking about FPL specifically.

Naturally, there is also a fairly obvious lesson in all of this for those FPL managers who are doing really well after two Gameweeks, which I suppose I could spell out, but, honestly, who really wants to help those people anyway?

My Gameweek 3 Team


Former Fantasy Premier League world champion and four-time finisher in the top 7k Simon March gives us the lowdown on his thinking for the new campaign.

2,796 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Bennyboy1907
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    RMT WC:

    Martinez (steer)

    VVD Taylor Saiss Lamptey (mitchel)

    Salah KDB Son Zaha (Anguisa)

    Werner Jiminez (Davies)

    How does it look?

    1. COLLIN QUANER
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Read that Anguisa could be off to Italy or something. Maybe swap him for Burke? Looking good though

    2. Albrightondknight
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Nice. All the boxes ticked. No Everton but you can’t have em all. There fixtures might not be an easy as they look on paper anyway.

  2. Letsgo!
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Is son or werner more of a differential capt?

    1. Henryyy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Son

    2. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      surely Werner.

    3. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Son is differential.

      Werner will be capped by many

  3. Phil's Stamps
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    4.5 midfielder?

    Saw Burke mentioned on the podcast but on the comparison tool Anguissa blows him out of the water. Is that assist for the Fulham man distorting things? Although they would be 3rd on my bench I know absolutely nothing about either.

    1. Pep's Money Laundry
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Shu want to buy a striker before the transfer window closes, so I'm not sure how viable Burke would be long term. I would choose either Anguissa or Alzate

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Bissouma over Alzate, even if he is suspended right now.

      2. Phil's Stamps
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Thanks. Is Anguissa nailed? He just edges Alzate on the comparison tool but Alzate has started both. Anyone know why Anguissa didn't start the first game?

  4. woodboy76
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Vinagre will ge play this week?

    1. Breaking FPL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Wait for Nuno press conference

  5. Tricky FC
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Rmt wc:
    Mendy martinez
    Digne saiss castagne lamptey c.taylor
    Kdb salah foden podence son
    Werner dcl brewster

    Alternatively
    Same gk and defence
    Kdb sterling havertz podence barnes
    Dcl jimenez bamford

    Rate also werner vs jimenez as i saw werner might play on wing. This bad tho?

    1. Another Hoops
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      You're always going to bench the wrong keeper

  6. NABIL - FPL otai
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Doherty and Dier rested.

    Kane played for only 30 minutes, but still scored.

    Sweeettt...

  7. Riggs
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Please Rate my WC:
    Martinez (Steer)
    Robbo Saiss Lamptey Taylor Mitchell
    Salah KDB Zaha Podence Burke
    Werner Jimenez DCL

    I really would like two LFC defs but don't know how.

    1. Tricky FC
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Poor goalkeepers which allow no rotation. Dangerous game.

    2. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Foden over Zaha and Robbo to TAA my suggestion

  8. osceola31909
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Who is the most nailed 4.5 midfielder?

    1. Tricky FC
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      There are many. Good options are ayling/dallas, Taylor of burnley, lamptey is great, yeah those are my faves

    2. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Anguissa I think

    3. Tricky FC
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Sorry. I thought u meant defender. My bad.
      Currently most nailed short term is alzate. Most explosive is burke

  9. amtosh
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Would you swap any of these mids for Bale (got first pick in my draft):

    Mahrez B. Fernandes Rashford B. Silva Willian

    Or would you pick up reguilon or someone else instead?

    I feel like Bale’s ceiling is higher than B. Silva or Willian but unsure.

    1. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      I don't know how Draft game works but Bale could be out for a few weeks

      1. amtosh
        • 12 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Yeah will just leave him on bench but if I get him I have him for season and no one else has him so often worth locking up a high scorer even if injured or suspended.

    2. noquarternt
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      For B. Silva surely

  10. Wild Rover
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Finding it hard to resist Kane and Son double up on WC

    1. osceola31909
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Certainly good fixtures.

    2. Cok3y5murf
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Has to be a bit of recency bias there

      1. Wild Rover
        • 13 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        What else is there to go on?

        1. Cok3y5murf
          • 7 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          Well, I've got Sterling and Werner in mine and they haven't scored yet. I do like Son and had him in GW2, just finding no room to fit him in. Prefer all City assets to Spurs.

    3. NABIL - FPL otai
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      If only I went Son with my initial pick

      Went with Doherty Dier Alli and Kane instead

  11. FCSB
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Would you start:

    1. Ayling (shu)
    2. ASM (tot)

    thanks

    1. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Ayling

    2. Tricky FC
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Ayling

  12. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    A DCL and 4.5 m midfielder or
    B Rodriguez and 4.5 m striker

    1. FCSB
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      B. with Brewster if this move goes thru

      1. dunas_dog
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        But will we know pre deadline the issue

        1. FCSB
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          he didnt play tonight... i think thats a sign hes going to be sold to either SHU or CRY

    2. Tricky FC
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Dcl and burke

    3. Pep's Money Laundry
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A

    4. Kitsune
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      A. A 4.5 striker has no chance of playing and DCL is a priority anyway.

  13. Tricky FC
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Lets all discuss:
    Werner vs jimenez
    Havertz vs son

    1. Third Eye Vision
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      2 proven assets versus 2 with potential. I’d go with proven for now.

  14. FCSB
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Will Ben Davies start v NEW ?

    1. Tricky FC
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Yes

      1. FCSB
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        i hope so mate

  15. Mitos77
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Will KDB play this weekend?

    1. FCSB
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      yes why wouldnt he ?

      1. jia you
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        he got a knock on his ginger noggin near the end of the game

        1. FCSB
          • 8 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          dusted it off though didnt he the old boy

          1. jia you
            • 7 Years
            3 years, 6 months ago

            aye but we all love a bit of drama here in the FFS madhouse 😉

            1. FCSB
              • 8 Years
              3 years, 6 months ago

              haha this is true mate

      2. Mitos77
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        head injury

  16. jia you
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    I'm surprised that the WC teams posted on here in recent days are so similar to each other considering the vast array of options.

    1. Cok3y5murf
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      The ones that are different aren't being posted here 😉

      1. jia you
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Pehaps haha, my wildcard team is just set up to chase some price rises atm (not too much set in stone bar KdB)...god knows what it will end up like come deadline!

        1. Tempestic
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 6 months ago

          yep same

  17. bennyp
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Thoughts?

    Meslier - (Caprile)
    TAA - Saiss - Ake - (Taylor - Mitchell)
    Salah(c) - KDB - Havertz - Podence - Rodriguez
    Jimi - Wood - (Brewster)

    Cheers!

    1. jia you
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Fer Fuchs Ake

      1. Seanigula
        • 14 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Fuch Mee

    2. Tricky FC
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      U comfortable with no son. I have a similar mid with havertz instead of son but scares me!

      1. bennyp
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Not really but I can't have them all. Might change to get him in.

  18. Tricky FC
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    U comfortable with no son. I have a similar mid with havertz instead of son but scares me!

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      He can surely score and yes he can get a haul, but he won't be playing Southampton's highline defence every week! So no need to be "scared" about not having him in your team!

  19. Pep Roulette
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Pep said KDB is fine

    1. FCSB
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      thanks Pep

  20. fish&chips
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Foden to be benched after playing 90 mins in the cup?

    1. Tempestic
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Mahrez did also tbf, who knows. Can defo see it happening

    2. Pep Roulette
      • 6 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Highly likely imo

  21. FCSB
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Who to start:

    1. KDB (and hope he starts with his injury)
    2. Soucek

    Thanks

    1. Third Eye Vision
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Bench both and Salah.

  22. Make United Great Again
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    No Son vs WBA is scary!!

    1. Make United Great Again
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Newcastle**

      1. Kitsune
        • 5 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Don't know, Bruce may well park the bus after last week's free scoring antics. But yes I would definitely want Son in my team he looked really clinical.

  23. jia you
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    I don't see many going double City attack, I'm getting more and more tempted to fill my boots and triple up on them as the week progresses.
    KdB + Sterling + Jesus would be some crazy differential 😉

    1. Shearer & Sutton
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Triple up here KDB+Sterling+Jesus. 😉

      1. jia you
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Ballsy as hell, I love it!

  24. bennygrimshaw
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    WC team:

    Ryan (Steele)
    TAA Taylor Coady (Lamptey) (Justin)
    KDB Salah Podence Foden (Anguissa)
    DCL Jimenez Wener

    Tempted with Rodriguez & Mitro for Foden & DCL.

    or Kane & Jorginho for Wener & Foden.

    Thoughts?

    1. FPL Bond @ Twitter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Foden risky pick. Mahrez could start..

  25. Mitos77
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Any news about KDB?

    1. FPL Bond @ Twitter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      What happened to him?

      1. Mitos77
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 6 months ago

        Cook elbowed him

  26. Make United Great Again
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Martinez
    TAA Ayling James
    Rodriguez Salah Podence KDB(C)
    Werner(VC) Mitro Martial

    Steer, Mitchell, Johnson, Biassouma.

    G2G?

    1. TeddiPonza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Looks good

  27. TeddiPonza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    On wildcard

    Martinez Forster
    Saiss Lamptey Justin CTaylor Mitchell
    Salah KdB Son Podence Burke
    Werner DCL Jimenez

    Got 1,2m in the bank. Any suggestions?

    A. Podence to Foden
    B. Justin/CTaylor to Reece James
    C. Upgrade Martinez
    D. Save in bank for a rainy day
    E. Something else

    Thanks!

    1. Shearer & Sutton
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      D

  28. FPL_Crisis
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Few questions for my wildcard team.

    Is Kdb enough city cover? Tempted by Jesus and easy swap to Martial when needed
    What about having no united players?
    Is it ok to not have any Chelsea for the next month? Probably get Pulisic once he’s up to speed
    Taylor and Lamptey good options to rotate with Robbo Saiss
    Tinkering with Robbo VVD instead of Salah but might need to do triple Def to cover Salah....

    1. Phil's Stamps
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Probably, but I'd try to get Foden in somehow, or Jesus.

      That's fine for now.

      I think the next game will tell, if they finally turn it on against West Brom they will be difficult to overlook for the two subsequent home fixtures.

      I think those two are probably the best long-term 4.5s to pick on a WC, but it may take a while for Taylor to come good because Burnley's squad is in bits at the mo.

      Try and get TAA Robbo if you can (this is what I'm doing), but Robbo VVD should be ok. No need for Salah as he only has one captainable fixture in the next 10.

  29. Uncle Gamst
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Any help would be most appreciated guys
    Help guys, would be most appreciated.

    I've had a disastrous 2 GWs and try to resist the temptation to WC, until things settle down.

    Thinking Alli > Rodríguez and Auba > KdB or Salah for -4 (and swallow my pride, after following Lateriser and not starting the season with him.)

    McCarthy,
    TAA, Davies, Vinagre
    Auba, Fernandes, Alli, Soucek,
    DCL, Werber, Martial
    Button, Mitchell, KWP, Bissouma

    1. fish&chips
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 6 months ago

      Good moves as your team looks fine. Don't think it needs a WC if you think MUN will improve

  30. That Was Easy!
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 6 months ago

    Man, really want to ignore Son/Chelsea...how much will it hurt?

    Martinez
    TAA Robbo Saiss
    Salah KDB Barnes Podence
    Wood Jimmy DCL

    Steer; Reed, Lamptey, Ferguson