Spot the Differential

In-form FPL differential Watkins set for favourable fixture run after Foxes test

Gameweek 4 saw one of our differential picks, Leandro Trossard (£6.0m), deliver for his owners, while former column favourites Raheem Sterling (£11.5m) and Ryan Fraser (£5.9m) also registered attacking returns.

There’s no shortage of candidates to consider this week, either.

This time, we’ve selected differentials from Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Manchester United, who we like the look of for Gameweek 5 and beyond.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Ollie Watkins

Making Sense of the Chaos 1
  • FPL ownership: 3.5%
  • Price: £5.9m
  • GW5-9 fixtures: lei | LEE | SOU | ars | BHA

Ollie Watkins (£5.9m) has got off to a flying start at Aston Villa, having arrived in Birmingham last month for a club-record fee of £28m.

After scoring in a pre-season friendly against Manchester United, he has since bagged a goal on his debut against Burton Albion in the Carabao Cup and hit a hat-trick in the 7-2 win over Liverpool. It’s now five goals in six games in all competitions, and you get the feeling he’s just getting started.

The 24-year-old, who scored 26 goals in the Championship last term, has very few weaknesses to his game. He is a quick, strong and extremely hard-working forward, who is equally comfortable holding up the ball or offering a threat in behind. The breakdown of last season’s goals also backs up his all-rounder tag: 16 were scored from inside the penalty area, eight from inside the six-yard box, with two coming from long-range. He is also capable with both feet – he netted 10 with his right foot, seven with his left foot and eight with his head.

Since making his debut in Gameweek 2, Watkins ranks joint-fourth for shots in the box, joint-second for big chances and third for chances created amongst forwards, which suggests points will arrive from both goals and assists.

He now faces a Leicester City defence that has conceded seven goals in their last three league outings, and may be without key centre-back Çaglar Söyüncü (£5.5m). The real appeal, however, lies in what’s to come, with an appealing schedule that runs right up until Gameweek 15.

Priced at just £5.9m, Watkins was recently labelled “undefendable” by Jürgen Klopp. If he can now kick on and build on that performance against Liverpool, he may well be the pick of the budget FPL forwards.

Vicente Guaita

  • FPL ownership: 4.6%
  • Price: £5.0m
  • GW5-9 fixtures: BHA | ful | wol | LEE | bur

After arriving from Getafe in summer 2018, Vicente Guaita (£5.0m) has gone on to establish himself as one of Crystal Palace’s most influential players.

The 33-year-old was the Eagles’ stand-out performer last season, combining 10 clean sheets with 16 bonus points and 27 save points. As a result, his total of 137 points was bettered by only six goalkeepers.

Although far from the most attacking of teams, Roy Hodgson has done a good job making Palace one of the most organised sides around. His players are well drilled and understand their roles, which has ensured a steady stream of clean sheets over the years.

This season, a win against Southampton on the opening day was followed by another victory at Manchester United, which showcased their defensive qualities and threat on the counter-attack. Even in the defeat at Everton there were positives. However, their 4-0 defeat at Chelsea last time out felt like a throwback to their terrible form during Project Restart. Still, six points on the board, considering their schedule, is a good enough start.

Palace welcome Brighton and Hove Albion this weekend. The M23 derby is usually a tight affair, with the last three league meetings separated by one goal or fewer. After that, their fixture run looks promising, with a decent-looking sequence of matches right up until mid-December.

Guaita’s numbers consistently rank amongst the best goalkeepers in the league, and with his outstanding shot-stopping ability, he could be a nice differential for those on the lookout for a new keeper.

Mason Greenwood

should-we-be-planning-for-manchester-united-fpl-attacking-players 5
  • FPL ownership: 5.0%
  • Price: £7.3m
  • GW5-9 fixtures: new | CHE | ARS | eve | WBA

Having made a huge impact towards the end of the 2019/20 season, Mason Greenwood’s (£7.3m) reclassification to a midfielder by FPL was met with widespread enthusiasm in the community, and understandably so.

He netted five times in just eight league starts post-lockdown, helping Manchester United secure a top-three finish and Champions League football.

However, so far this season, things haven’t quite gone to plan.

Greenwood, a product of United’s academy, has made four appearances for the Red Devils, with his only goal contributions arriving in the Carabao Cup. Playing out on the right wing, he has often looked isolated, leading him to snatch at shots when he has had an opportunity.

An error of judgement with England resulted in Gareth Southgate leaving him out of his latest squad, which has meant he has been able to rest these last couple of weeks, and the hope is now that the break will have done him good, providing the physical and mental respite needed.

This weekend, a trip to Newcastle United gives United the chance to get back on track, and with Anthony Martial (£8.8m) and Edinson Cavani (£8.0m) unavailable, we could see Greenwood leading the line as a central striker. Marcus Rashford (£9.5m) and Odion Ighalo (£6.3m) are other options but it would seem to make sense that Greenwood is moved to play in his natural position with either Daniel James (£6.4m) or Juan Mata (£5.9m) playing from the right.

A skilful forward who has excellent finishing abilities, Greenwood can become a top number nine in years to come, and if given an opportunity to put forward his credentials this weekend, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him get on the scoresheet.


475 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Top Lad Dakes.
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Kevin replacements? 😆 for a hit

    Son Hamez Salah Podence other mids.

    Dare I say... Bale?

  2. ViperStripes
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Aguero in on WC?

    1. @fpl_phenom
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Id just put kane in and switch once city are back firing

    2. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      No. Kane.

  3. pablo discobar
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Kdb to Pulisic for me. Allows me to get hamez and grealish next week

  4. drughi
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Think I will wildcard now and use kdb money on Kane and Son double up.

    1. El Presidente
      • 4 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Mistake

    2. drughi
      • 14 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      easy switch from Kane>Aguero in a couple of weks to

      1. AnfieldLad
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Yeah I think Aguero being back makes Kane a great pick on wildcard just because it makes the switch so easy

    3. Botman and Robben
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Why wildcard because of 1 player?

  5. Cok3y5murf
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    What about Sterling?

    1. Amey
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I'm thinking about him

      1. Cok3y5murf
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I mean, is he fit?

        1. Amey
          • 5 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          LOL okay.
          No idea sorry

  6. El Presidente
    • 4 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    KDB owners, what say YOU?

    1. DA Minnion (Former great)
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Out on wildcard.

      1. El Presidente
        • 4 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        WC because of 1 player a bit.... rash?

        1. DA Minnion (Former great)
          • 11 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          On wildcard anyway.

  7. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    The risky early transfer of KDB out can't backfire too horribly now, at least.

    1. Jebiga
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Who was your replacement ?
      I will do kdb to son for free. Only lost 0.1 on son rise, but its safe move 🙂

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Son

  8. Jebiga
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    De Bruyne out, Aguero is training well.

    Omg, how many WCs will destroy Kun Aguero...

    1. The Ejiptian King
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I don't think I'd want Kun over Kane without KDB playing.

  9. Pompel
    • 10 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    KDB -> Salah it is then. Annoying about tonight's price rice , though

  10. AnfieldLad
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    KDB -> Son (c) it is then

  11. beetlejuice
    • 6 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Salah worths 0.4/0.5 more than Mane?

    1. AnfieldLad
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I’d say so yeah

  12. Top Lad Dakes.
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Is Pulisic definitely fit to start?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yes but not sure if that guarantees he starts

  13. Weeb Kakashi
    • 8 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Kane or Kun on WC?

    Have Son

    1. Jebiga
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      You know who is the FPL legend

      1. Weeb Kakashi
        • 8 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        I have a soft spot for him too.

    2. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Son shouldn't come into it
      I think Kane will outscore Kun over the next 4, then you can make that switch

    3. tuvok
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      After those comments by Pep (as well as training photos) I'm thinking Aguero might start. Kane definitely the safe choice but there is something really exciting about getting 1.3% owned Aguero

  14. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Kdb to Mane for a hit is madness right?

    1. Puntillimon
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Hard to say, pool missed mane that’s for sure

  15. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Already have Salah and Son
    A) KDB to Sterling
    B) KDB and Jimenez to Grealish and Kane-4
    C) KDB and Podence to Grealish and Rodrigues-4

    1. Big W
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Im doing C I think

  16. Taegugk Warrior
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Kdb to sterling for -4..?

    1. AnfieldLad
      • 9 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Maybe if you captain Sterling and don’t think so KDB worsens Sterling as a pick

      1. Iceball
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        What about that move for free?

        1. AnfieldLad
          • 9 Years
          3 years, 5 months ago

          Yeah I’d say KDB to whoever you want is a good idea for a FT

  17. ElliotJHP
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    The big call then with the extra Son cash

    A) Ings +4
    B) Kane

    1. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Take the hit. It will pay off over the next 4 weeks

  18. Big W
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Martinez | Forster

    James | Mitchell | Justin | Robbo | Saiss

    Salah | KDB | Foden | Podence | Anguissa

    Werner | DCL | Jimenez

    .1ITB and 2 FT

    KDB & Podence > Son & Grealish or Jrod?

  19. rnrd
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    I have both Son and Kane. Which one would you Captain.

    Looks like there's some fitness/fatigue issue with Kane, so I believe it is safer to go with Son. I'm not sure Kane will play the full 90 if the game is won and I can see a goal galore for the last 15min if Bale is thrown in along with Son

    1. Puntillimon
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      I’m currently on kane purely due to the fact that I think he’ll be more involved in the goals whether assisting or scoring. But yes, your reasoning makes sense. Will have a think again

  20. Niho992
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Is KdB to Son for free no brainer?

    1. DA Minnion (Former great)
      • 11 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Yes

    2. Taegugk Warrior
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Absolutely

  21. DA Minnion (Former great)
    • 11 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Any word on Chilwell?

    1. The Mantis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      he's in training apparently

  22. tuvok
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    I know the KDB news is the big story & gives us certainty. But what about these comments on Aguero:

    Sergio is training well and we are happy. Every team needs a striker and we played without them. He has been training good and we’re happy to see him back on the pitch after a long time.

    Likely he might be thrown straight in? Arsenal don't have great defensive stats. A risk, I know, but what do you think?

    1. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      don't forget they have champions league too next week

  23. ViperStripes
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    WC Draft #258

    Martinez/(Ryan)
    Robbo, Reguilon, (Lamptey), Dallas, (KWP)
    Trossard, JRod, Salah, Son (Jorginho)
    DCL, Aguero, Watkins
    1.4m itb.

  24. JBG
    • 5 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Play Bissouma or Kdb to Fernandes/Sterling for -4?(-8 total, had to take out Vinagre for a hit).

  25. Sprets
    • 3 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Kane or Son for captain?

    1. JBG
      • 5 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Kane imo, I only have Son. Wish I had Kane for this GW.

      1. Botman and Robben
        • 7 Years
        3 years, 5 months ago

        Wish? You still have time to make your wish come true.

  26. Top Lad Dakes.
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Would you punt on Bale in for hit for KDB?

    Or prefer a Chelsea mid? Got Son Salah Hamez

    1. FPL_Crisis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      has bale even been declared fit to play?

  27. Johnny too hotty
    • 12 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    n my WC and tempted to not Watkins over DCL and not have Hames at all.
    Looking at these posts i would be only person to not own either. crazy?

  28. KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
    • 9 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Play Pulisic or Brewster?

  29. Kabayan
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    -4 already.
    Bench : Mitchell and Lamptey

    Another -4 : KDB to Salah.
    Yes or No?

  30. FER FUSCH AKE
    • 7 Years
    3 years, 5 months ago

    Have son and Salah and no ft.

    Is KDB to mane for -4 a good move. Will swap back to Kdb obviously.

    1. Puntillimon
      • 8 Years
      3 years, 5 months ago

      Could come good