Getting the right goalkeeper

In the first article of this two-part series, I summarised how goalkeeping points are scored and introduced the concept of BSSM points (bonus, saves, special actions, minus points). I categorised goalkeepers as those relying on clean sheets, those relying on BSSM points and all-rounders.

Then, I identified which goalkeepers scored well in the previous five seasons and which type they were. I suggested trying to identify a good BSSM point scorer, as even if they aren’t the top point scorer, they are never far behind and are cheaper. 

The idea of spending transfers on goalkeepers is often shunned by those we read on Fantasy Football Scout and watch on various YouTube channels. Last season, Emiliano Martínez (£5.5m) was the top scoring goalkeeper with 186 points; 26 points above the next highest single goalkeeping option Ederson (£6.0m). A transfer used on Martínez would not have been wasted.

From casual observation, it seemed that Martínez established an early lead in the goalkeeper rankings and then increased that lead. I was curious to see whether a simple trend following technique of buying the leading goalkeeper works. 

Method 1: A trend following method of buying goalkeepers

This method buys the leading points scorer after four Gameweeks, then buys a new goalkeeper every time a new leader emerges.

At times, I mention a club combination of goalkeepers. Many managers adopt this tactic in FPL to cover injuries, suspensions and rotation. There are a fair few examples of shared duties but this tactic is less viable for goalkeepers from the better clubs. In that situation you could make a transfer. Sometimes there was a changing of the guard. These goalkeepers play behind the same defence, so are considered a combination. 

Method 2: Looking at early season saves totals

I also examine whether taking the saves totals for the first five Gameweeks is a good predictor of end of season points. Saves are a key component of BSSM points.

2020/21 season

Martínez led the rankings after four weeks, so that’s the initial ‘buy’ signal.

After 8 weeks, Lukasz Fabianski (£5.0m) took the lead. Transfer in Fabianski.

After 12 weeks, Martínez regained the lead, holding it from then on. Transfer in Martínez.

Martínez outscored Fabianski by four points during Gameweeks 9 to 12, so this hokey – cokey cost you four points and two transfers. Martínez then outscored the West Ham combo (which included Darren Randolph (£4.4m)) by 40 points from Gameweek 13 onwards.

The eventual margin over all goalkeepers was 18 points (the Leeds combo scored 168 points). Martínez’ lead peaked at 26 points in Gameweeks 23 and 32, so there was negligible erosion of this by the end. The trend following method worked last season. 

Now looking at saves in the first five Gameweeks…

Emiliano Martinez appears some way down the list, as do Illan Meslier (£5.0m) and the brief points leader Lukas Fabianski. This method did not work well last season.

2019/20 season

The trend following method did not work this season. In fact, it was a nightmare. The leading goalkeeper changed 15 times from Gameweek 5 onwards (a new outright leader – no ties) and involved 11 different goalkeepers or club combinations. The eventual winner, Nick Pope (£5.4m), was the last of those to take the lead. 

Getting the leading goalkeeper didn’t matter as much as in 20-21 anyway, as the top five goalkeepers/ club combinations covered 17 points. You had a reasonable chance of landing on one of those. 

Now looking at saves in the first five Gameweeks…

The top save maker in the first five weeks becomes a good points scorer, which makes the method a success during that season. 

The first two £4.5m options demonstrate the importance of judging a team’s defence. Tim Krul (£4.5m) and Nick Pope scored similarly on saves made but Pope outscored the Norwich combo by 50 points. Other good scorers are further down the list for saves, suggesting that their success was to be built on clean sheets.

2018/19 season

Neil Ethridge took an early lead with two penalty saves.

The Crystal Palace combo took the lead after Gameweek 6.

Ederson took the lead after Gameweek 8.

Alisson Becker (£6.0m) took the lead after Gameweek 14 and remained there. However, he didn’t increase his lead on Ederson by much (five points). By the end he had given up most of the lead established by Gameweek 29.

Now looking at saves in the first five Gameweeks…

There was no correlation during 2018-19 between early the saves total and season points. Ethridge, Fabianski and the Palace combo end with reasonable points totals but the Burnley and Southampton combos don’t fare so well.

Meanwhile, Jordan Pickford (£5.0m) has the third highest points total, although his saves total is lower and doesn’t catch up during the season. Clean sheets therefore proved important to Pickford’s total that season. By the way, Pickford gets his performance from save points earlier in his career at Sunderland. 

2017/18 season

Jonas Lossl of Huddersfield Town took the lead after four Gameweeks.

Fabianski took the lead after Gameweek 5.

David de Gea (£5.0m) led after Gameweek 6 to the end. His lead peaked at 27 points after Gameweek 24 and fell to 14 points, barely any change from the end of Gameweek 8.

The trend following method worked reasonably this season, with a false signals on Lossl and Fabianski being immediately corrected. The transfer from Fabianski to De Gea after Gameweek 6 earned nine points over the remainder of the season. The Manchester United goalkeeper did not build on his lead though.

Looking at the totals for saves after the first five games, Fabianski was top and he finished third for points on 157 points. He achieved 45 BSSM points that season, second only to Martínez last season over the five seasons covered. This was despite Swansea City’s relegation. 

Therefore, a trend following method on saves made in the first five Gameweeks worked that season. Fabianski contrasted starkly with Ederson, who got one more point but made significantly fewer saves over the season (58 vs. 137). 

2016/17 season

After Gameweek 5, the Manchester City combo take the lead.

After Gameweek 10, Tom Heaton of Burnley takes the lead.

After Gameweek 13, Thibaut Courtois of Chelsea takes the lead.

After Gameweek 21, the Everton combination take the lead and stay there. This was a split season between Joel Robles and Maarten Stekelenburg. 

No player or club combination ever led by much during this season, the final margin being eight points. When the Everton combo took the lead from Courtois, an extra 14 points were gained, although this did involve an extra transfer to switch Everton goalkeepers. When Courtois took the lead from Heaton, this would have involved finding extra money and ultimately been a false signal, as Heaton finished second to the Everton combo. 

So the trend following method proved patchy.

Looking at saves in the first five Gameweeks…

The Sunderland combo made 176 saves across the season, the highest total of the five seasons covered. Even in a terrible team, an exceptional goalkeeper can make a respectable total with lots of saves. Below that level, a total more like the Hull combo (also relegated) of 118 points will be achieved. 

The Everton combo made a modest 97 saves across the season, showing that they were more like a premium defence, getting their points from clean sheets rather than saves.

Trend following on saves made in the first five Gameweeks would have got you Heaton or Pickford and either option would have been satisfactory. This was another season where there was a large chasing pack. Nine goalkeepers or club combinations came within the 134 – 143 point range. 

Summary

The table summarises the effectiveness of the two methods in the last five seasons.

The ‘trend following’ method of buying the leading point scoring goalkeeper works well in some seasons but can be a nightmare in others, when the lead changes regularly. It can also be impractical when involving premium goalkeepers.

Last season’s margin of victory for Martínez is uncommon. Not only is second place usually closer, in many seasons there is a chasing pack.

Using saves made in the first five games as a predictor of season long points worked in some seasons but should be considered alongside the quality of the defence. 

Sub-premium goalkeepers can compete through clean sheets, as well as save points. Everton goalkeepers managed this during 2016-17 and 2018-19.

You cannot make the blanket statement that goalkeeper transfers are not worth it, particularly if they require no extra money.

Application to this season so far

Top point scorers

This season already shows the usual pattern for Ederson of him getting points from clean sheets.

Hugo Lloris (£5.5m) and Edouard Mendy (£6.0m) are all-rounders so far (Tottenham started with three clean sheets). Jose Sa (£5.0m) is a bit more of a BSSM goalkeeper but he won’t get an assist very often.

David Raya (£4.6m) has a 50 per cent clean sheet rate so far. This is unsustainable and he doesn’t have a high enough saves total (so far) to suggest he will be amazing. Having said that, he is not a risk at his price.

Top save makers

Illan Meslier tops the table but is way down in 18th for points. Previous seasons showed that very good goalkeepers can score respectably behind a bad defence (Pickford at Sunderland, Fabianski at Swansea). I am not convinced that Meslier fits that category and being on 18th for points is hardly a ‘buy signal’.

The same goes for the Newcastle and Watford combinations. These goalkeepers are more likely to perform like Jakupovic at Hull and Krul in his last full season with Norwich at around 120 points.

Vincente Guaita (£4.5m) is a reasonable option for his price.

Other cheap goalkeepers

Popular pre-season goalkeeper Robert Sanchez (£4.5m) has a low saves total and is well down the point soring table. Alex McCarthy (£4.5m) is only slightly better, as is the Arsenal combination (although obviously you would just take Aaron Ramsdale (£4.5m)). 

Conclusions

There is no completely obvious goalkeeping candidate so far. Such a player would be cheap and have a good total of saves that is already reflected in their points total. Vincente Guaita and David Raya are the best options from the budget goalkeepers.

The season is shaping up for a clean sheet maker or all-rounder to top the points scoring table. Although the intention was to identify a high BSSM scorer, the all-rounders Hugo Lloris and Edouard Mendy are options, particularly as Mendy has less rotation risk than Chelsea’s defenders.