Goalkeeper breakdown: understanding the different types

How does a goalkeeper score well?

Breaking down a goalkeeper’s FPL points total into component parts gives insight into why some goalkeepers prove better options than others.

In the first of two articles, I will reiterate how goalkeepers score points, show who performed well in the last five seasons and identify reasons why.

In the second article, I will examine whether good performers can be identified early in the season. I’ll post that a few weeks into the season, when managers are considering wildcards. A little spoiler on that; although Emiliano Martínez (£5.5m) took an early lead last season, other seasons show that it isn’t as simple as just jumping on the early leader.

How are goalkeeping points scored?

• Appearance points (2 per game)
• Clean sheet points (4 per clean sheet)
• Bonus points
• Save points (1 point per 3 saves rounded down IN EACH GAME)
• Special actions (penalty saves, goals, assists)
• Minus points (multiple goals conceded, own goals, cards)

I have combined the last four of these into a category called ‘BSSM points’. It covers everything except turning up and no goals going in. It is for what the goalkeeper actually does.

BSSM and total points from the last five seasons

Last season’s totals make striking reading.

The goalkeepers from better teams had much lower BSSM contributions than the bottom half teams. Alisson (£6.0m) was the exception with his goalscoring heroics. Premium options relied on clean sheets and last season there weren’t enough to bridge the gap.

Where duties are shared, I’ve shown the club combination. Many managers adopt this tactic in FPL to cover injuries, suspensions and rotation. Although this tactic is less viable with the better clubs, you could make a transfer.
 
During 2019/20 the story was as follows:

This table is sorted by total points.

Reliance on clean sheets and a few cards pushed Ederson (£6.0m) down to 11th. Kasper Schmeichel (£5.0m) and the Tottenham combo tied on 156 points, but the Tottenham combo got 20 more BSSM points.

Premium goalkeepers continued with lower BSSM totals during the 2018/19 season but Alisson and Ederson made enough clean sheets to lead on total points.

Premium goalkeepers continued with lower BSSM totals during the 2018/19 season but Alisson and Ederson made enough clean sheets to lead on total points.

During the 2017/18 season, David de Gea (£5.0m) proved an all-rounder, getting 18 clean sheets (ranked 1st) and 26 BSSM points (5th). 

The top two point scoring goalkeepers that season kept the most clean sheets but they needed reasonable BSSM totals to beat Lukasz Fabianski (£5.0m) with his 45 BSSM points.

The 2016/17 season went as follows.

It feels unreasonable to include the Lloris/ Vorm combo because Vorm played only four games. To either make the transfers or double up was unrealistic (when Tottenham were good). Hugo Lloris (£5.5m) edges towards the all-rounder category with a reasonable 17 BSSM points.

More realistically, the Everton combo were the winner. They got 14 clean sheets (joint 3rd) and 25 BSSM points (3rd).

The table shows some wide variations. Tom Heaton and the Sunderland combo did well from a high BSSM total, whilst premium goalkeepers Thibaut Courtois and de Gea had low BSSM totals. Fraser Forster (£4.5m) was an unusual case of a non-premium goalkeeper doing reasonably from clean sheet points.

Summary

Conclusions

• Just because the last two seasons have seen budget goalkeepers top the rankings due to BSSM points, it doesn’t mean that this will always be the case.
• Premium goalkeepers get fewer BSSM points. They need an exceptional season on clean sheets to be the top points scorer.
• Even when the winner keeps clean sheets or is an all-rounder, there is always a high scoring BSSM goalkeeper not far behind.
• Last season’s margin of victory for Martínez over the chasing pack was larger than normal.

My reflections

• It seems reasonable to focus on finding a goalkeeper with a high BSSM score. In addition to the above observations on premium goalkeepers, there are considerations of value or covering a defence with outfield players. These weaken the case for premium goalkeepers further.
• What particularly struck me was the low BSSM contributions from the Manchester United pairing and Kasper Schmeichel last season. I had considered them as value picks but not now.
• I will try the Watford pairing and look to change if it goes wrong. I’ll cover reacting to early season data in part two a few weeks into the season.