Members

The FPL players who are most underperforming their xG ahead of Gameweek 12

Among the underlying statistics on offer in our Members Area is expected goals (xG), which many will be familiar with already. 

Simply put, xG is the measure of a quality of shot based on criteria such as proximity to goal and angle of attempt. For example, a shot from inside the six-yard box will carry a higher xG than a speculative effort from 35 yards.

When these stats are collated for a player, you get an idea of how many goals they should be scoring.

However, it also gives us an opportunity to identify those who are underperforming in front of goal, via their xG delta. This is calculated by subtracting the xG figure from actual goals scored.

So, in this, our latest Fantasy Football Scout Members article, we’ve analysed the top xG underachievers in each respective category ahead of Gameweek 12. Ideally, we’d look at a player’s goalscoring expectation over a longer period of time, but focusing on this season’s data alone does reveal some interesting findings, which we’ll explore below.

FORWARDS

Scout Notes 4

601 Comments Post a Comment
  1. _Gunner
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Why all that love for Jota? Is that because Mane' and Firmino are both injured?

    1. DannyDrinkVodka
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Pretty much……mostly Firmino

    2. Colonel Shoe 肝池
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      yep......think id still prefer foden tho

      1. _Gunner
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        same here

      2. Rassi
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        The busy season is here so Pep will pep a lot.

        That being said I don't own neither Jota nor Foden.

    3. Rassi
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      He is a 7.5 M OOP probably spearheading the best attack in the league for the next several weeks.

      1. Baps hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Yea, first Firmino out, then Afcon soon and fixtures are at least decent. I went for Jesus over Foden, not so much between them statistically and lack of other forwards was deciding factor. Jota, Foden and or Kane are my possible next targets. Having both Jesus and Foden feels too risky without full bench.

      2. Haa-lala-land
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        It's been the best attack so far, but theyre now missing 2/3 of their attack.

        1. FourLokoLeipzig
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Mane’s injury isn’t thought to be serious based on the articles I’ve read

    4. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Firmino yes

  2. FCSB
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Ramsdale
    TAA Cancelo James Chilwell
    Salah Foden Raphinha Mbeumo
    Jimenez Antonio

    Foster Vardy Livramento Brownhill

    2 FT, 0.0 itb

    1. Vardy + Brownhill >> Son + FWD fodder [4.8 budget] (Davis)
    2. Brownhill Vardy >> Jota Wilson

    Thanks

    1. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      2

    2. Exxtreme
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Vardy is biggest fpl troll, as soon as you drop him, he will at least brace.

  3. RWB_1991
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Brandon Williams & Greenwood > Cancello & Cornet for a 4 point hit?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Yes but prefer Gallagher to Cornet

  4. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Assuming Steele replaces Sanchez for Brighton this weekend, should I start:

    A) Ramsdale (liv)
    B) Steele (avl)

    1. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Tough one Miguel!

      1. The Knights Template
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        It's B for me after considerable thought.

    2. tokara
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A for saved points

    3. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B

    4. Haa-lala-land
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I'd definitely do Ramsdale for two reasons. Pool are missing two first choice strikers, and the unwritten rule in FPL that you should always play the first choice GK over your 4m playing reserve despite the fixture.
      (Think Ramsdale Vs Leicester and Guita Vs Man City)

      1. Brehmeren
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Mane should be fine.

    5. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Tough one but Steele more likely to keep cs, so him. Ramsdale could haul, but the problem with Jota is that he either scores or shoots off the target.

    6. 1zverGGadeM
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Ramsdale

    7. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Cheers all, B definitely feels like overthinking things somewhat

    8. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B

  5. Botman and Robben
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Would you sell Foden for Son? Already have Kane.

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      No - way too soon to double up on Spurs

      1. tokara
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        shhhhh

      2. Botman and Robben
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Guaita best sub 4.8M keeper?

    2. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      No. I don’t think it’s too soon to double up, but I wouldn’t want to lose Foden

    3. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Why not, what could possibly go wrong?!? Well, if chasing big time and nothing else to do, it's a plan. Worked last year, may or may not work this year.

    4. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      No

  6. sovietrockettes
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Ramsdale Foster
    TAA Cancelo Dias James Livramento
    Salah Foden ESR Mbeumo Brownhill
    Vardy Antonio Toney
    2FT 1.9 ITB

    A) Vardy>Kane
    B) Vardy> Davis, Brownhilll> Son

    B sets up Mbeumo>Jota for next week

    1. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I came here to ask a similar question that basically gave me B (either with Jota for a hit this week or add Jota next week)

      Therefore I suppose B

      1. Baps hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Jota + Son over Kane + Mbeumo sounds much healthier pick long term. English fans want Kane now like they wanted Grealish not so long ago.

    2. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

  7. Seekers of Glory
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Guys any feedback on the wildcard will be appreciated!

    Guaita (Foster)
    TAA Cancelo James Reguillon (White)
    Salah Jota Foden Cornet (Brownhill)
    Kane Wilson (Davis)

    0.2 itb. Is it G2G or anyone key missing?

    1. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Cornet has AFCON, but you will have a lot of time to sell him before that. That is one factor why I wouldn't get him in now.

      1. Baps hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Having Kane costs you Son and having no Chilly, but next Che fixtures aren't nice, so I guess it's g2g. Wouldn't be my team, but that difference and all other picks besides Reguillon and Cornet would be in my WC team. So it looks good.

        1. Baps hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Well, I don't think White would be in my team either, but he is a solid pick.

  8. La Roja
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Would you sell Ronaldo for Kane this week? (For free transfer)

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      It’s not urgent

    2. The Reptile
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Same dilemma for me - scared to do it in case he hauls away to Watford..

    3. KunDogan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Prefer Ronaldo against Watford

    4. FantasyClub
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I would not

    5. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      No. But maybe next week.

    6. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      No

    7. Ranger3
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      No

  9. Mrs W
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    I have Sanchez and Raya….should I take a -4 to bring in a playing gk for Raya (I’ve already used my 2ft for Kane and Gallagher) or just wing it with a non playing gk? My plan was to play Sanchez every week until the next wildcard and forget about bench gk. I only have 4.5 to spend so replacements are looking a bit meh.

    1. The Big Fella
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      No but if you insist just go for Steele.

      1. Baps hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        I would get Steele only if I could use that money well elsewhere. And there is always small risk that Sanchez gets small injury or illness.

        1. The Big Fella
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          In which case Steele would play

  10. tbos83
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    It's easy to get warped by reading these comments. Eg feels like everyone is rushing for Kane on here but irl Ronaldo is far higher owned and will hurt you much more if he hauls. Plus fixtures are better after next week.

    1. KunDogan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Agreed, it is the herd mentality, the herd always has a couple of targets and anything else cannot be considered… 🙂

  11. 1zverGGadeM
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Williams to Tsimikas with 1ft and 0.2 itb a no brainer with Robbo out, right?
    Salah and Trent in the team too.

    1. Colonel Shoe 肝池
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Depends how long robbo is out for and whether you'd play him and taa.
      Could be left with non playing bench fodder taking up a pool spot if you're not careful

  12. Bishopool
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Any chance Vardy will surprise Chelsea?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A chance but Tuchel has used Reece James to keep him quiet the last two game against Leicester

    2. Mr. O'Connell
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Depends how many price drops he has. His returns that week are usually inversely proportionally to net transfers out.

    3. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Doubtful

  13. George James
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Best option?

    A) Antonio + Son

    B) Kane + Gallagher -4

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

    2. waltzingmatildas
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

    3. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

  14. Letsgo!
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Havertz and antonio to son and armstrong for -4 and capt son

    Or havertz and vardy to kane and gallagher and capt kane?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Kane(c) and Gallagher

    2. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B

  15. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Sarr, Gray & Jansson > Raphine, ESR & Dier for -4pts?

    1. Jafooli
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Or Tsimikas instead of Dier, if Robbo is oot....

      1. waltzingmatildas
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Yeah decent moves, all upgrades

        1. Jafooli
          • 12 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Cheers Waltzing

  16. Trebor Allsorts
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Who doesn’t love a 4.0m defender and I NEED one to fund my Kane move.
    Who is guaranteed the most playing time over the next 6 weeks?
    A) - Johnson. Risk of Coufal coming back in.
    B) - Omobamidele. Will Norwich keep clean sheets?
    C) - Tsimikas. Depends on how long Robertson could be out for.
    D) - Manquillo. Dropped for last Newcastle game. Will Howe bring him back in?

    1. Haa-lala-land
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B is the safest. He'll be your fifth player, so you shouldn't expect more than 2 points, which he's prefect for. As you know, the others you mentioned are rotation risks

  17. waltzingmatildas
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Guaita Foster
    TAA Cancelo Chilwell Duffy Livra
    Salah Foden Raph Mbeumo Normann
    Kane Antonio Toney
    2fts, 0.2itb

    A) burn ft
    B) Duffy to 3.9 def (allows Mbeumo or Toney upgrade next week)
    C) Duffy to Dier/White/Lowton
    D) Toney to Wood/Benteke

    1. The Mentaculus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      D with Benteke. I will be making that exact move next week

      1. waltzingmatildas
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Yeah, next week looks perfect for it. Just reluctant to do it this week with newcastle

    2. Haa-lala-land
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Raph - Gallagher
      Toney - Wilson
      For Newcastle's short term fixtures in the next few, but now Ive written and looked at it, it could be a downgrade

  18. Kloppage Time
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    I´m a Salah & TAA owner but I am a bit reluctant to triple up on Jota when there are so many current injuries, Robertson now injured to join Mane, Henderson, Milner, Firmino, will there perfomance suffer?

    1. Jude Rooney
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Don't think many of those are serious injuries.

    2. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Do it

  19. Camzy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Bit of a weird question but building a FanTeam wildcard.

    A) Emerson + Cathcart
    B) Dier + Ward

    Extremely sexy choices as you can see 😛

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

  20. Karan14
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    How does this team look from GW13 onwards?

    Sanchez
    TAA James Cancelo Reguilon
    Salah Jota Foden
    Kane Antonio Toney

    (4.0 Livra Brownhill Sissoko)

    Is the bench too weak?

    Will shift to 4 in midfield when I have couple of FTs in GW15/16 by selling Toney is he is still underperforming
    Also plan to get Ronaldo for Kane in GW16

    Thoughts?

  21. Jude Rooney
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    2 FT Havertz and Vardy are going, do I get

    A. Son and Jesus
    B Kane and Trossard

    Or any better suggestions?

    1. Haa-lala-land
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Yes Trossard has scored a couple of goals recently, but he's just so dull to own.

  22. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    We GTG this GW? Play Vardy over anyone? Steele (avl) in for Ramsdale (liv)? Captain Kane?

    Ramsdale
    TAA Chilwell James *Livramento
    Salah(c) Gallagher Mbeumo Sarr
    Kane Antonio

    Steele Vardy Duffy Sissoko 0FT 0.5 ITB

    1. Jude Rooney
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Play Vardy over Livra and Sarr

    2. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I'd play Vardy over Sarr.

  23. Snooze ya lose
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Who to ditch for taa?

    White
    Duffy

    1. Jude Rooney
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Duffy

    2. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Easy Duffy.

  24. Pep Roulette
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Would you do Havertz to Foden for -4?

    1. Jude Rooney
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Not a fan of taking hits but a good transfer

  25. Ranger3
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Please Help !
    A) Vardy, Toney --> Kane,Hwang
    B) Vardy, Havertz --> Kane, Gallaguer

    1. Original Sin
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B

  26. Original Sin
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Please recommend:
    A. Vardy VS CHE(H)+4
    B. Ronaldo VS Watford(A)
    C. Kane VS Leeds (H)

    Have exact cash to get Ronaldo. Need to catch up in mini league. Thinking of captaining whoever I get for Vardy.

    1. Haa-lala-land
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I'd expect Ronaldo to score V Watford
      I'd be pleasantly surprised if Kane scored V Leeds.
      I'd be shocked if Vardy scored V Chelsea

  27. Hangman Page
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Nice article.

  28. Fpl_Ludwig
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Raph ——-> Bernardo silva for free?

    1. Fpl_Ludwig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Or raph to Jota?