Spot the Differential
10 December 2021 1458 comments
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Gameweek 16 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Everton, West Ham United and Manchester United, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

ABDOULAYE DOUCOURE

  • FPL ownership: 1.6%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: cry | che | LEI | bur | NEW

Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.4m) has impressed under Rafael Benitez this season, bagging two goals and four assists in just 11 starts. As a result, the 28-year-old is averaging 4.6 points per match, which is more than team-mate Demarai Gray (£5.5m) and only fractionally below Jarrod Bowen’s (£6.5m) 4.7 total.

Having missed a run of four matches from Gameweek 9 onwards with a broken metatarsal, he has since returned to Everton’s engine room alongside Allan (£4.5m). During that period, he has registered six shots in the box, a figure only Diogo Jota (£8.0m), Mohamed Salah (£13.1m), Hakim Ziyech (£7.3m) and Gabriel Martinelli (£5.2m) can better amongst all midfielders.

The Toffees have been plagued with injury problems all season, with some of their most influential players – including Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.9m) – all spending time on the sidelines at various points. However, the crisis does now seem to be easing, which coincided with an important 2-1 win over Arsenal on Monday night, when Doucoure was a little unfortunate not to produce an assist, with Richarlison’s (£7.4m) goal from his pass narrowly ruled out for offside by VAR.

Now, they take on a Crystal Palace side who have had real issues defending set-pieces in 2021/22, which could be good news for Doucoure, one of Everton’s key aerial threats, while between Gameweeks 18-26, they sit top of our Season Ticker for ease of fixture.

Doucoure was predominantly used in a deeper midfield role last season, but has thrived after being handed more attacking responsibility by his new manager, and could be an effective differential in the coming weeks.

VLADIMIR COUFAL

Is it time to sell Antonio and Benrahma in FPL? 5
  • FPL ownership: 3.9%
  • Price: £4.7m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: bur | ars | NOR | SOU | wat

Vladimir Coufal (£4.7m) has been a solid performer for West Ham United since joining from Slavia Prague in 2020, and is now back in the starting XI after losing his spot through injury and the fine form of Ben Johnson (£4.0m).

The right-back has now started back-to-back Premier League matches, which has seen the Hammers beat Chelsea and draw with Brighton and Hove Albion. During that time, amongst all team-mates, only Jarrod Bowen and Michail Antonio (£7.9m) have attempted more shots in the box, while his three successful crosses is a team-leading total. That’s important, too, given that this weekend’s opponents Burnley have allowed 184 crosses from their left flank this season, at least 18 more than any other side.

This season alone, David Moyes’ team have managed league victories over Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur, while they are also through to the last-16 of the UEFA Europa League after topping their group. Now, they have the opportunity to kick-on, with one of the kindest fixture schedules on offer, with games against Burnley, Norwich City, Southampton and Watford before the end of the year. In fact, they will face only one side currently nestled in the top six right up until March.

Having dropped £0.3m from his initial starting price, Coufal now offers a cheap route into West Ham’s defence, and could be a solid set-and-forget option given their appealing fixtures.

HARRY MAGUIRE

  • FPL ownership: 4.9%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW16-20 fixtures: nor | bre | BHA | new | BUR

Harry Maguire (£5.4m) has endured a difficult start to the season at Manchester United, but the appointment of Ralf Rangnick could prove a turning point.

In his first game in charge, the German tactician opted for a 4-2-2-2 formation, with Scott McTominay (£5.4m) and Fred (£4.9m) effectively screening the back four. As a result, United conceded just eight shots and 0.75 expected goals (xG), while they also kept their first Old Trafford clean sheet since all the way back in April, ending a run of 15 games without one there.

As for Maguire, he remained assured and composed throughout, with his distribution from the back particularly impressive. In fact, the England international played 15 successful passes into the final third on Sunday, more than any other player on the pitch, which could be key moving forward, with a new, more direct approach being implemented.

The schedule should also allow Maguire to thrive. On paper, the fixtures for Rangnick’s first couple of months are about as good as it gets, especially in December, with no matches against the current top six to worry about. Looking further ahead, it’s notable just how appealing that run is, right through until March, with just one game against West Ham United the only red blob on our Season Ticker.

With uncertainty around who will be United’s long-term first-choice full-backs, Maguire could be a solid under the radar pick, with an ability to contribute points at both ends of the pitch.

  1. winchester
    • 5 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Is this GTG or anything worth a hit? cheers.

    ramsdale
    taa - cancelo - james - livra
    salah(C) - bernardo - jota
    antonio - dennis - hwang

    (foster - gilmour - reguilon - son)

    a) GTG
    b) jota -> bowen -4
    c) son -> mount/bowen? -4
    d) hwang -> watkins -4

    1. 420king
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Would probably take a hit now since it's likely you'll need one soon anyway. One round too soon for D though.

  2. 420king
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    What would you do in my case?

    Ramsdale
    TAA - Cancelo - James
    Salah - Jota* - Bowen - Raphinha
    King - Antonio - Ronaldo
    (Johnson* - Livramento - Brownhill)
    0FT, 0.3m ITB

    A) Jota to Bilva -4
    B) go like this

    1. Bobby Crush
      • 11 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      with your bench, i'd keep jota

      1. 420king
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        I should have 11 - sure, but the team is crap. Already starting Raphinha and Southampton CS odds are like 15%.
        Thanks.

        1. Bobby Crush
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Yes, not ideal I agree.
          I would take a hit if I was replacing a player long term.

  3. Bobby Crush
    • 11 Years
    4 years, 1 month ago

    Have to move Reg.
    Not convinced by Dalot, Coufal or Arsenal.

    What is left to pick from?
    0 ITB

    1. TopBinFc
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Palace defender, Guehi or Mitchell

      • Lecky Legs FC
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Ait Nouri perhaps

      • Bobby Crush
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        another couple of teams that do not fill me with confidence

        but slim pickings, agreed.

      • Bobby Crush
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        the player will start in a 442. So needs to be of a certain quality

      • 420king
        • 11 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Yeah, nothing outstanding at that price. I'd go for Dalot if I was sure he's nailed.

        1. Bobby Crush
          • 11 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Yes, other option involves moving Jota, which I am reluctant to do until I know more.

    2. Jinswick
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      Yay or nay?

      Raphina & Davis -> Gray & King (-4) [Gray B1]

      Ramsdale
      Trent, Cancelo, James, Alonso
      Salah, Jota, Bowen, Raphina*
      CR7, Antonio

      Foster, Livramento, Brownhill, Davis*
      Bank 0.3m, 1FT

    3. Radzio
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 years, 1 month ago

      So, any final rumours about Jota? Spotted on any training pictures?

      1. Corona is not good 4 U
        • 5 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        I think that he will not play. But I do not see anything in the social media.

      2. TopBinFc
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Wont play but will go mad against Newcastle midweek

      3. Lecky Legs FC
        • 10 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Is Ronaldo worth it on WC?

        1. Corona is not good 4 U
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          I think yes. But it is a little risky because the new manager.

          1. Lecky Legs FC
            • 10 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            Considering downgrading to Sancho and upgrade elsewhere on my WC team

        2. Saint Luke
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 15 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Yep

      4. My Name Is Prince
        • 13 Years
        4 years, 1 month ago

        Which mid to get for Son, up to 10.8m, in a midfield of:

        Son / Bilva / Salah / Jota / Mount

        Cheers!

        1. TopBinFc
            4 years, 1 month ago

            Saka, cheap

        2. Corona is not good 4 U
          • 5 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Which goalkeeper as replacement for Sanchez?

          A) Ramsdale
          B) de Gea

          Thank you!

          1. Jarnathan
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            I went B, but its because I trust Arsenal less than United. United have better quality in the team, but its in transition. The question remains over the coach and whether he can steady the ship.

            1. Corona is not good 4 U
              • 5 Years
              4 years, 1 month ago

              Thank you!

        3. Diddi89
          • 8 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          Hi all, 10k rank and not used wildcard.
          I am a arsenal fan and moget not be objective here so help!
          GTG?
          DDG
          TAA, JAMES,ALONSO, CANCELO
          SALAH C,JOTA, GUNDO, Bsilva
          RONALDO, DENNIS

          BENCH: ESR, white and Perica.
          Should I start with ESR or white, for who (Dennis)?

          Believe on CS incoming and Also if ESR is fit a danger at home against caballero in goal.

          Thanks for feedback.

        4. Colonel Shoe 肝池
          • 14 Years
          4 years, 1 month ago

          kane to .....?
          was thinking vardy but he may not even feature 🙁
          forwards are pants this year

          1. TopBinFc
              4 years, 1 month ago

              Go cheap, King or Dennis, spread funds elsewhere

            • vova
              • 15 Years
              4 years, 1 month ago

              Kane to Ronaldo seems to be the popular move this week

          2. Weeb Kakashi
            • 9 Years
            4 years, 1 month ago

            Guaita
            TAA Reece Cancelo Alonso
            Salah Jota Son Gallagher
            Antonio Wilson

            Raphinha Livra

            2 FT 0.7 ITB

            Son Raphinha > Bowen Gray?

            Gray can come in if Jota doesn't play.

            1. TopBinFc
                4 years, 1 month ago

                Keep Raph, just son out to city mid

                1. Weeb Kakashi
                  • 9 Years
                  4 years, 1 month ago

                  Need funds for Wilson to Ron next week.

                  1. TopBinFc
                      4 years, 1 month ago

                      Would Son to Saka give you funds, I wouldnt get rid of raph

                      1. TopBinFc
                          4 years, 1 month ago

                          Also, I would much rather a city mid ahead of Rolando who wont play every game, I know you can say the same about city mid but much cheaper.

                2. james 101
                  • 13 Years
                  4 years, 1 month ago

                  Play which 1 - and bench order for the other three?

                  Thanks all!

                  A. ESR (SOU H)
                  B. Alonso (LEE H)
                  C. Dier (BHA A)
                  D. King (BRE A)

                  1. Mr. O'Connell
                    • 13 Years
                    4 years, 1 month ago

                    Play alonso. Bench order. D, A, C.

                  2. TopBinFc
                      4 years, 1 month ago

                      Play King, Bench order B A C
                      You do realise Dier isnt playing?

                  3. Jarnathan
                    • 9 Years
                    4 years, 1 month ago

                    Bowen vs Fred

                    I've looked at the stats in the members section and I can't see how Bowen comes off looking better - especially considering the price.

                    1. vova
                      • 15 Years
                      4 years, 1 month ago

                      there are lies, damned lies and statistics

                    2. Bobby Crush
                      • 11 Years
                      4 years, 1 month ago

                      Watching the game tells you another story.

                  4. mcginnntonic
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 6 Years
                    4 years, 1 month ago

                    Does it make more sense to captain a differential this week, if having taken more than a -4?

                    1. George James
                      • 11 Years
                      4 years, 1 month ago

                      it makes no difference

                  5. bigdip
                    • 13 Years
                    4 years, 1 month ago

                    Ramsdale
                    James - Rudiger- Cancelo - TAA (c)
                    Raphinha - Salah - ESR - Bilva
                    KANE - Watkins
                    ______________________________
                    Carson: Livra: Jimenez : Brownhill

                    0 ft & 0mn itb

                    Kane to:
                    A) Vardy
                    B) Dennis
                    C) King
                    D) Any 12.1mn or less fwds
                    E) No hit and play Jimenez (away city) or Livra (away arsenal)

                  6. George James
                    • 11 Years
                    4 years, 1 month ago

                    Sorry to repost but...

                    Son >>

                    A) Rashford -4

                    B) Mount -4

                    C) Play Livramento

                    1. TopBinFc
                        4 years, 1 month ago

                        c

                    2. Corona is not good 4 U
                      • 5 Years
                      4 years, 1 month ago

                      Which two players I should bench from?

                      White, Rüdiger, Smith Rowe, Jota, Dennis?

                      Thank you!

                      1. Definitely not sleeping
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 5 Years
                        4 years, 1 month ago

                        White and Rudiger

                    3. vova
                      • 15 Years
                      4 years, 1 month ago

                      Do we have an idea when Brighton/Spurs and Burnley/Spurs will be rescheduled for?

                    4. v3n0m
                      • 4 Years
                      4 years, 1 month ago

                      1) Saka -> Bowen
                      2) Vardy + Alonso -> Ronaldo + Dalot
                      3) Vardy + Saka -> Ronaldo + Fred

                    5. finnish92
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 8 Years
                      4 years, 1 month ago

                      Thoughts about this WC team?

                      Guaita (Foster)
                      James, TAA, Cancelo (Dalot) (Livramento)
                      Salah, Jota, Foden, B.Silva, Docouré
                      Antonio, King, Watkins

                    6. Pukki Blinders
                      • 6 Years
                      4 years, 1 month ago

                      A. Saka + James
                      B. Jota + Alonso

                    7. Krafty Werks
                      • 11 Years
                      4 years, 1 month ago

                      Jota on WC or get Mount and upgrade 4th def? (in my instance I can get Coufal over Dalot/White?), thanks.

                      A - Jota & Dalot/White.
                      B - Mount & Coufal.

                    8. tractorjess
                      • 10 Years
                      4 years, 1 month ago

                      Have 2ft but a lot to sort, any ideas?

                      Sanchez* Foster*
                      White Cancelo Livra Alonso Duffy*
                      Salah Son* Gundo Saka Bissouma*
                      Antonio Vardy Toney*

                      1. Bobby Digital
                        • 8 Years
                        4 years, 1 month ago

                        Switch Son and Toney... Biggest upside.

                    9. dansmusen
                      • 8 Years
                      4 years, 1 month ago

                      Just did a -8 and have no keeper...still feel good haha

                    10. Bobby_Baggio
                      • 14 Years
                      4 years, 1 month ago

                      Is this too soon? Thinking:

                      Livra + Raph > Dalot + Bowen

                      DDG
                      TAA - James - Rudiger - Livra.
                      Mount - Salah - Gallagher - BSilva
                      Vardy - Dennis

                      (Steele) - Raphinha - Hwang - Johnson