Pro Pundits

Why FPL can be a ‘crumb of normalcy’ when real life gets tough

It’s the last day of the year and, while I was hoping to write something about the upcoming Double Gameweeks, we have no news about it at the time of writing. I’ll just park that on the side and instead – fittingly as it is the end of the year – pen down some of my thoughts about this game we play.

It has been quite the 12 months. Our world is not quite rid of the virus that has been plaguing us for most of the last two years. That said, we have had a full year of football and along with that, a full year of Fantasy Premier League (FPL).

On a personal level, last season was a great learning experience. I’m not talking about FPL lessons learned (which were quite a few) but just general life lessons, which this game does teach us in more ways than you’d imagine.

Online FPL friendships

The game is growing at a staggering rate. With so much content out there via articles, stats, Twitter accounts, podcasts and YouTube videos, the number of well-informed serious managers is also growing rapidly. In a world of lockdowns and struggles with loneliness, this game enables you to establish connections with so many like-minded individuals.

I have seen the connection established over FPL lead to amazing things. It has led to me being ‘business and pod partners’ with someone I’ve never met in my life. I’ve seen a bunch of friends who found each other on this website remain friends for over a decade, pulling resources together to send gifts when one of their own was suffering from a serious illness. The happiness caused by this managed to feed the soul for a long time.

Speaking of serious illnesses, I have had a couple of people very close to me face tough battles this year and, unfortunately, they have lost those battles. Obviously, when something like this happens, the head goes into weird and dark places. And that’s when logging on and reading a bit of football or chatting FPL with a few people brings a welcome sense of normalcy, even just briefly. Personally, I’ve found that this temporary distraction does soften the blow and makes a slight, positive difference when dealing with real-life situations. 

That said, there are two sides to this fast-growing game. Since there are so many FPL managers that you know, many of us struggle with feeling happy due to this game. There is the mental health aspect of it. FPL is very much an escape so, when you have all your hopes pinned on this outlet, a bad Gameweek can hit hard. It is difficult to get a sense of what doing well is, due to the number of informed FPL managers growing.

Look online after a fairly decent Gameweek and there will always be other FPL managers who will do even better, making it difficult to derive happiness from your own good score. Currently sitting at 36k, this is the best first half of the season I’ve ever had and, despite that, there is a little shine taken off it because you’ll always see others at 30k, 10k or top 500. This is going to be the norm every season, so we need to amend our expectations from this game.

Pressing the ‘switch’

At this point, I just want to tell you about the ‘switch’ when I was in eighth grade. The short version is that I basically imposed a lot of pressure on myself when it came to exams and expected a lot from myself. The obsessive-compulsive trait that I (and most of us) have in terms of being well-informed FPL managers was very much alive back then as well. For me, exams were always all-or-nothing. Due to an illness, I couldn’t cope with my self-imposed timetable, which led to me thinking that if I’m struggling to cope with this, how will I cope with the hardships that life will throw at me in the future. A mental block was created.

I spoke to a ton of professionals to help deal with this but nothing worked. We had a summer break at that time and all I did was sit in a corner for three months, not speaking to a soul and not wanting to do anything in life. Eventually, I was somehow convinced back into school on the first day of the next year and I had a perfectly normal day. This is what led to me pressing the ‘switch’.

The crumb of normalcy given by a perfectly good day at school and finding a passion in the form of a school drama role was what I needed. It immediately made sense to me and I realised that everything that I had thought was so unnecessary. It is one of the biggest lessons that life has taught me: do what you can to the best of your ability. The rest is out of your control and there is no point worrying about it.

Norwich skipper Hanley's unity call after loss at Chelsea | The Pink Un

FPL is out of our control

Those of us struggling to find joy in FPL need to realise that when Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) scores a hat-trick and you’ve captained Kai Havertz (£7.8m), there is a huge amount of randomness involved. At its core, you can try learning about the game’s predictive nature to the best of your ability (whether you are an eye test person or a stats person) but the rest simply isn’t in your control. I talk a big game in terms of temperament but it is obviously very painful when that huge turn of variance happens and it affects your mood. I just control my mood by switching off the television, watching a different programme or talking to a friend and it’s a lot easier to deal with the next day.

I mention this because of the innate competitive nature of the ‘average FPL manager’. The truth of the matter is that this hobby we have developed has led to us making connections and friends, offering that crumb of normalcy and hope which helps us ‘press the switch’ when real-life situations hit us hard.

415 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Weak Become Heros
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Irons.

    1. Bubbles1985
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      IRONS

      1. Weak Become Heros
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        COYI

    2. Purse83
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      MASSIVE!

      1. Bubbles1985
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        EVERYWHERE WE GO

  2. dshv
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Ddg foster
    Trent cancelo cash reguilon livra
    Son foden jota gallagher maddison
    Watkins ronaldo davis

    Anything worth a hit?

    1. Gudjohnsen
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      No you just bench Gallagher, Maddison and Davis

    2. Purse83
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      No way, if Maddison’s game wasn’t called off this is basically as good as it gets!

  3. LeytonOrient
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    FPL is not normality. My picks have been worse than getting covid

    1. Dennis System
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      what an incredibly moronic comment

      1. LeytonOrient
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        Incorrect. You don't know how bad my picks have been.
        Plus I've had covid. It's a calculated statement, Corned Beef.

        1. Do I Not Like Orange
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          Bad picks are a known symptom of long Covid.

    2. demob
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Typical Os fan

  4. Dynamic Duos
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Strip the money out or the Chelsea defenders James and Alonso to Lowton and Johnson to fund Jesus to Kane?

    1. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Go for it

    2. Gudjohnsen
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      -4?

    3. Gazwaz80
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      I got rid of James for Lowton last night, calculated risk…

    4. yeahbuddy
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Yes

  5. chaser123
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Is Robertson’s price fixed whilst suspended?

    1. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      No, but needs more transfers out for a drop. Frozen when red flag-->no flag

      1. chaser123
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        Would love to bring him in next week. But 0.1m off annoyingly

  6. Bubbles1985
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Bench is currently
    Gallagher, James, Tomiyasu

    Gallagher and James definitely need to go?!

    1. dshv
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Gallagher no
      James yes

      1. Bubbles1985
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        James to Reguillon seems the choice then

  7. Lord of Ings
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Anyone benching jota? Surely gotta start him right?

    1. LC1
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      100% start him

    2. Gudjohnsen
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Yes

    3. Make Arrows Green Again
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Chelsea could have conceded three against Brighton

  8. tisza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Wait for Viera presser at 1. Still not clear on Gallagher

  9. Maeki2
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Cancelo in any doubt now?

    1. marcos11
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Doubt he starts

    2. demob
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      He looked beat up and will be a bit shaken. No chance he plays I reckon

      1. demob
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        Don't bench him against us though. Lol

        1. Gazwaz80
          • 4 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          Cancelo sounds like he’s made of teak. He’s had bad things happen in life and in his words’ it’s just another obstacle that I will overcome’ respect to him and I think he’s one of those individuals who who put his hand up and say ‘ put me on the team sheet boss’ although, I can also understand that he would want to be with his family….

  10. Karan14
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    DDG
    TAA Cancelo Dier
    Son Foden Jota Bowen
    Ronaldo Antonio Broja*

    (Gunn Livra* Gallagher* James*)
    1 FT & 0.0m

    Assuming SOU vs NEW is postponed what transfers would you make here?
    Doubt Ill have a 1st sub for Cancelo if Pep decides to rest him.

    Thinking James ➡️ Cash for free
    Any other transfers to consider?

    1. demob
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Cash is on 4 YC

    2. demob
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Team looks good otherwise

  11. Totalfootball
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Which teams likely to double this gw?

    1. chaser123
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Watford, Brentford, Everton I think

      1. Totalfootball
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        Thanks!

  12. demob
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Dennis banned from AFCON by Watford.. Do we figure this impacts his performance over next few. Not suggesting he's going to go on strike etc but surely his head will be down somewhat. Prob will still score more than frickin King

    1. Cruyff's Eleven
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      It's a joke. Making up the rules as they go....

      He should be banned from playing in the PL.

    2. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      He wasn't banned by Watford, he didn't want to go because he wasn't guaranteed to start

      1. Mr Arsenal
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        What a lame reason for not going and representing your country.

        Remember Rabiot behaving the same way for France and he got lambasted by the media and general public.

      2. Ruth_NZ
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        So why did he post this on twitter to days ago?

        Proud to get a call up to represent my country.
        Naija boy! ❤️

        1. Ruth_NZ
          • 9 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          *two

    3. Stamford B
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Wasn’t it a technicality that he wasn’t called up in time, leaving it to the discretion of Watford for which they have refused.

  13. marcos11
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    What to do here? 0.2itb 1ft

    DDG
    TAA Cancelo Dalot
    Son(c) Jota Mount Bowen
    Ronaldo Watkins King
    3.9 Alonso White Gilmour*

    Thinking Dalot/Alonso > Spurs defender?

  14. Cruyff's Eleven
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Repost.

    Is Cash the preferred replacement for James because of the postponed matches against BUR and LEE on top of BRE (21) (and MUN in 22) or am I missing something?

    1. Marty McFly
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      I’d say top replacements are:

      Cash
      Lowton
      Robbo
      Regulion

      1. Cruyff's Eleven
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        Based on what though?

        Villa and Burnley are pants. Remember last year, people triple captained Duffy?

        That's what this reminds me of...

        I'm staying clear.

        Emerson or Coady my preferred and probably most secure non-premium defence for next 3 or 4.

        Just my opinion.

        1. Marty McFly
          • 11 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          Burnley have a lower xgc/90 than Wolves. Wolves delta xgc suggests they’ve been incredibly fortunate with their results defensively.

          Cash’s attacking stats have been solid since Gerrard’s appointment, as have villas underlying defensive numbers.

          You’re a paying member, crunch some numbers.

          1. Cruyff's Eleven
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            Yessir, thanks mate.

  15. No Professionals
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    having a shocking few weeks, poor free hit has cost me.

    De Gea
    Trent Cancelo Reguilon Livramento*
    Salah Jota Bernardo
    Antonio Watkins King

    Steele Saka James Maddison
    1ft 0.1m

    obviously still time for some doubles to be announced...

    As a starter, would you do Salah to Son and (c)?

    1. Joey Jo-Jo Junior Shabadoo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      I would try and keep the faith as that seems like a good team that should do well over next few including 22 - salah to Son (c) seems like the right move for this week.

  16. Jet5605
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Ok to roll my FT? Have Maddison on the bench but not sure if we'll get an injury update if his game is off?

    DDG
    TAA - Cancelo - Dier
    Son (c) - Salah - Jota - Bowen
    Antonio - Broja - King

    Bachman - Lamptey - Coady - Maddison

  17. Jimjam
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Is Lucas Moura a viable alternative to Son, given the cost difference? He seems suddenly to be playing well under Conte..

    1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Started on the bench last week

    2. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Son not optional imo. Moura as a double up is good.

    3. Pratik
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      I really like Moura as a differential punt, but I would at least have one of Son/Kane too.

  18. Camzy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    -8 on the table...

    James, Bernardo, Laca > Davies, Raphinha, Ronaldo -8

    If MUN double I might have to go for it. Dalot not worth it over AWB I'm guessing..

    1. Pratik
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      I'm not sure about Davies, but the rest look good.

      Also there is a chance Watford might have two successive DGW, would that change your plans?

      1. Camzy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        No. I already have King and no one other than Dennis interests me.

    2. Karan14
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Madison over Raphinha?

      1. Karan14
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        Just realized Madison doesn't have a game this week as of now.

        1. Camzy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          Yeah that was the original plan but Norwich game is off so that plan is scrapped.

          Two options I'm considering are Moura or Raphinha.

  19. Pratik
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    I don't remember any other site where the comments are hardly ever related to the post. It is rather unique to ffs.

    1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      There is a reason it's called For F's Sake!

    2. The Polymath
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      I agree Cancelo will probably play

      1. Pratik
        • 14 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        Hahaha 😀

    3. Hangman Page
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      There’s a lot of navel gazing among folk who play FPL.

    4. Pacer.
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Pretty funny when the post is all about what a great community it is. Honestly can't think of many hobbys with weaker online 'community'. It's in great part down to FFS for having a model that suppresses any kind of development in favour of repetition, but also it's just because this simply isn't a collaborative game. It's largely a selfish game where the fruits of your labor are antithetical to the satisfaction of others. It's nice that the content creators have found a way to tap that, though.

      1. fusen
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        I'd agree in general but this website / community is absolutely terrible for trying to talk about broader theories or concepts of FPL. The technicalities of it all or the ways of playing.

        Any sort of back and fourth detailed posts normally get buried in the generic rubbish over player A or player B.

        Reddit sometimes seems slightly better but still is filled with too many one liners

        1. Magic Zico
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          It's used to be good, but recently drops and get more sarcastic. My humble opinion.

        2. Pacer.
          • 9 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          It's not only site functionality, it's also a content decision to pursue only dry statistical approaches to maximizing points, which has completely neglected important human aspects of the game. Totally understandable from a business pov but sad

      2. The Knights Template
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        It is a zero sum game.

  20. klipp klopp
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Emerson royal or reguilon ?

  21. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Debating whether to take a hit for Gundog/Laca >> Son/King...thoughts?

    A: Gundog + Foden + Ron (c).....Laca as 1st sub
    B: Son (c) + Foden + Ro (-4)......King as 1st sub

    1. klipp klopp
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Am in similar position. Have ronaldo but not son. Is it worth taking -4 to get son as captain

      1. UnitednationsXI
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        yeah it's tricky. 2FT's next gw could be handy but at the same time, i expect both Son and King to have a dgw22 so if i need them next week, might as well get them now

    2. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Happy new year, UN!

  22. Drumandbaines123
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Sancho punt anyone? Possible DGWs, good fixtures ahead and seems to be adjusting now. Granted he's expensive but could be a great differential nonetheless and maybe one to get ahead of the curve on. Thoughts?

    1. DARK SIDE OF THE LOON
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Improved, yes. Viable FPL option, no.

    2. klipp klopp
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Fixtures are tempting but when bruno back will he keep a spot

    3. Pratik
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Nooooo...Moura over him for sure.

  23. Holmes
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Is Lacazette to Watkins a no brainer?

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      "Not if you have to ask"
      -Unknown

    2. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Laca in good form, keep

    3. Marty McFly
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Form vs fixtures debate I suppose

  24. fusen
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    When did it become the 'in thing' to start saying 'variance' instead of 'luck'?

    I was watching two recent episodes of BlackBox and Let's Talk and both Andy and Mark separately made offhand comments about (paraphrasing) not saying the "luck word".

    Mark said it in a sentence about something like "we don't want people to think it's all luck and so they won't listen to us" (with a jokey tone) and Andy said something like "whatever you want to call it, some say luck".

    I'm not being too serious here or critical but there is an element that does make me think FPL "content creators" try to play LUCK down as an FPL basic factor.

    1. fusen
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      On a side note, I think variance is more of a 'form' concept which is linked in some ways to luck but isn't the same thing.

      1. Eddie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        I make my own variance.

        1. thomashl
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          Haha, nailed it!

    2. Hangman Page
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      They always say over the course of a season luck evens out, maybe that applies to fantasy games too.

      I think persistence and not doing too many silly things is a big part of what makes a good FPL manager. I don’t really consider either of those things to be particularly skillful, just things that come with experience / being obsessed enough to still care come February.

      The very best ones probably also know when to back against the crowd and make huge gains - something I think Lateriser’s been good at.

      1. fusen
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        Yeah. There's chat on here about "boring managers" or similar and some mention the idea of keeping it simple but it's not talked about enough TBH.

        Nearly everyone who plays isn't going to ever win the game (be #1 OR) so the next major aim is to finish as high as possible year on year, and if you look at all the Hall of Fame entries the way to do that is simple decisions repeatedly often enough so you keep making gradual improvements or at least maintain a steady form.

        Luck comes into it due to us having NO control at all over the players once we've chosen them, but we obviously have the ability to chose who we think will do the best.

        1. Magic Zico
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          The alternative aim to enjoy the game is to try different approach/hypothesis at the start of the season and to reflect in the middle or at the end ... learning about self v different players v the crowd.

      2. The Knights Template
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        Persistence is to character as carbon is to steel!

    3. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      If you can't plan properly and 'good decisions' have been overruled by postponements and no shows ... then any numbers or stats or whatever you call them do not matter. In that situation, it's justified to call it 'luck'. But this game is nevertheless about 'luck' right? 😆

    4. thomashl
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Good point. To me, it seems like FPL started getting a bit (over)intellectualized a couple of seasons ago, now people are almost afraid to point out the luck and randomness in the game; it is just educated guesswork, all in all.

      I guess using ‘variance’ was an effort to use a more neutral word, and maybe capture the randomness in ‘sometimes the ball goes in, sometimes it doesn’t’ nature of FPL. ‘Luck’ is perhaps more charged - or revealing - insinuating that there’s no such thing as skill in this game (i.e. picking ‘good’ players based on some metrics).

      While I get the point in phrases like ‘creating your own luck’, that just doesn’t sit well with me this season. Random matches cancelled will affect people randomly (who knew!), and there’s no creating your own luck in regards to that.

      A long comment, sorry about that - fun discussing this, though.

      1. Magic Zico
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        I am with you

      2. fusen
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        I agree somewhat in that this season highlights the lucky nature more but a game being cancelled Vs your player picking up an injury in training on a Friday? Those don't seem a million miles away for me.

        That side of FPL has always been there and maybe, IMO, isn't appreciated enough because one player being randomly unavailable doesn't affect so many people, but when the team that player is a part of can't play due to covid the number of FPL users affected goes up and suddenly people have their eyes opened.

        Also, heaven forbid that FFS posts are longer than 2 sentences asking for an A or B answer 😛

        1. thomashl
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          Yeah I get your point in that sometimes players become surprisingly unavailable due to injuries. But the comparison doesn’t make sense still, because if a game is called off you lose ALL involved players - which easily could mean 3 or more players depending on the teams involved - and that’s something you can’t fix with 1FT (especially given the clusters of postponements we’ve seen). We often have more than one player in a team, or at least in a match, so this is a legitimate concern I feel.

          But hey. Luckily it’s just a game, we (and I included) just get so easily carried away with it 🙂 nice talking to you mate!

      3. The Mentaculus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 2 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        Good explanation. The term "variance" is also used a lot in discussions of poker theory & I think it might be imported from there. Similar balance of skill & luck in both games

    5. Marty McFly
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Luck and chance/probability are not interchangeable terms IMO. Although I suppose that depends on your perspective. Anyone making stats based decisions will point at people who make non-stats based decisions and say they are lucky.

      Variance = fixed range of results around a statistical average.

      They are different things. You need to understand variance to determine probability. One of the shortfalls of RMT is it doesn’t tell you anything about the variance in the predictions. It just provides averages. It should provide ranges. Or at least the option to see ranges at a 90-95 percentile.

      1. fusen
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        I understand the phrasing and the meanings, but as you say, there is an element of how you view life to how you interpret these things.

        Salah missing a penalty isn't some miracle, he's perfectly allowed to miss a penalty. There is a probability that he will miss and then another he will miss the rebound.

        Salah doing so on the week where lots of people sold him? Again, you can boil it down to bare numbers but that takes on another level of meaning in terms of how it affects things.

        Trying to break down absolutely everything to just pure numbers is IMO trying to hide the unexplained nature of life that we don't understand and probably never will. That's where I start using the word luck.

  25. DavvaMC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Opinions please lads.

    A. Start Broja (If game confirmed) and bench Martinelli
    B. Transfer Martinelli > Gray (-4) or JWP.

    Thanks

  26. Simon69
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Would appreciate any suggestions on where to use this FT... Half considering James > Johnson + Laca > Kane (c) for a -4 but leaves me with 0.0 and zero flexibility. Any thoughts appreciated! 1.8 ITB

    De Gea

    TAA, Cancelo, Dier, Guehi, James

    Jota, Foden, Bowen, Gallagher

    Ronaldo

    Subs: McGovern, King, Saka, Lacazette

  27. Dexters Laboratory
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Salah,Davis,James to Ronaldo,Davies,Bowen -8

    A. Yes
    B. Do it next week

    1. acidicleo
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Just the defender part this week.

    2. AD2110
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      B

  28. Hangman Page
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Lovely article LR, you write very well.

    1. Lateriser 12
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Cheers 🙂

    2. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      No worries; anytime mate

    3. The Knights Template
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Agree, enjoyed it.

  29. SEXY SOLO SAUCE
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Ok WC done I think:

    Dubravka
    Trent | Cancelo | Robbo*
    Son | Bilva | Jota | Raphinha
    King | Kane | Antonio

    Bachmann | Davies | Lowton | Brownhill

    *Either placeholder for Robbo or start Davies for 1GW

    1. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      I’d have Dennis instead of King

      Bowen instead of Bilva

      1. SEXY SOLO SAUCE
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        Thanks - Dennis going AFCON though?

        1. Hazz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          2 years, 3 months ago

          Check the news. He's not going now.

          P.S. Did you see my reply to your earlier post of this?

          1. SEXY SOLO SAUCE
            • 7 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            Ah didn’t know thanks, and yes I did - hence why I’ve bolstered the bench and sacrificed KdB.
            Dennis would be nice but it’s finding that 0.3

          2. SEXY SOLO SAUCE
            • 7 Years
            2 years, 3 months ago

            Appreciate the feedback

  30. _Gunner
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 3 months ago

    Currently have:

    James (injured)
    Cancelo (doubt)
    Livra and Broja (doubt as they are facing Newcastle)
    Bernardo (playing deep and might not even start next game)

    Who to sell first? James or Bernardo?

    1. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Why Broja is doubt?

      1. grumpyman
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 3 months ago

        Newcastle game likley to be called off.

    2. keefy59
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 3 months ago

      Clearly James injured/tough fixtures & then lack of fixtures
      The real problem is who to buy