We’ve put together our Scout Picks ‘bus team’ ahead of Double Gameweek 34 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL).
This is a new feature we first rolled out in February and it’s essentially a rough, first draft of our regular XI, which gets finalised and published much closer to the deadline.
Those final picks will cement our weekly selection based on the Scout Squad long-list entries, midweek minutes and fresh injury updates but this ‘bus team’ – a term coined by the Always Cheating boys – will discuss the players who are likely to be in the running.
Here it is, then: our early, rambling thoughts on the runners and riders up for selection in Gameweek 34, followed by the preliminary picks themselves.
THE LIKELY LADS
There’s only one place to start when it comes to Scout Picks contenders.
This is the first of two Double Gameweeks for Chelsea and while the fixtures might not seem the easiest on paper, West Ham United and Manchester United aren’t bad teams to be facing from an attacking perspective.
The Hammers are without a clean sheet on the road this calendar year and may well have one eye on their upcoming Europa League semi-final, while the Red Devils proved yet again in Gameweek 33 that they are a desperately poor defensive side.
Mason Mount (£7.6m), Kai Havertz (£7.9m) and Timo Werner (£8.6m) are the stand-out options from the Chelsea attack.
Mount tends to be Mr Dependable, starting 15 of the last 16 league matches that he has been available for, and offers multiple routes to points: he’s Chelsea’s top player for goal attempts, chances created and, by some distance, expected goal involvement (xGI) this season.
Havertz and Werner are relatively new kids on the block in FPL 2021/22 terms, entering purple patches over the last few weeks and months to become first-choice picks in a highly competitive forward line. Havertz has six attacking returns in his last five Premier League run-outs, while Werner has delivered three goals and as many assists in three consecutive starts in league and cup. Profligacy and rotation are minor concerns with the pair, and the minutes racked up against Arsenal in midweek may well go some way to influencing our final Scout Picks selection.
Let’s not forget Reece James (£6.3m), Marcos Alonso (£5.5m) and the more rotation-proof Antonio Rudiger (£6.2m) at the back: the pair have an impressive 23 attacking returns between them this season, with James posting the second-best minutes-per-xG figure of any defender this season.
As for the single Gameweekers, the top two have plum home fixtures and we can expect them to also feature prominently in our Scout Picks selection on Friday. Joao Cancelo‘s (£7.1m) Champions League suspension only boosts his chances of starting against the Hornets this weekend, while Andrew Robertson (£7.3m) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.4m) each have their usual strong claims for inclusion against the side with the worst away record in the division. This trio of premium picks are, you’ll not be surprised to hear, the top three defenders for FPL returns (goals, assists and clean sheets) in 2021/22.
IN CONTENTION
But what of the attacking assets from City and Liverpool? This is where it gets trickier and where midweek minutes may come into play, bearing in mind that both sides have Champions League encounters with Spanish opposition three days after their Gameweek 34 fixtures.
Mohamed Salah (£13.2m) and Kevin De Bruyne (£11.8m) are probably the first names that come to mind when we FPL managers think of ‘must-haves’ for fixtures against Premier League whipping boys. But might it pay to box a bit cleverer this week, particularly with our meagre £83.5m starting XI budget and premiums aplenty vying for our money?
Sadio Mane (£11.7m), for example, once again looked easier on the eye than his Egyptian colleague at Wembley on Saturday and, whisper it quietly, he’s actually outperforming Salah for non-penalty xGI over the last six matches, not to mention FPL points.
The only real downside to De Bruyne right now is price, and it was evident how key the Belgian is to City by their mostly lacklustre showing in the FA Cup semi-final. A dozen attacking returns have arrived in his last 14 league starts, with only one benching to his name in that time. Watford at home might seem the time for a rest, a la Norwich in Gameweek 25 – but then again, he’s just warmed the bench for 90 minutes at Wembley.
De Bruyne’s hot streak started in Gameweek 17 and since then, only one player can better him for points per start: Riyad Mahrez (£8.6m). In fact, over the course of the season, the Algerian trails only Salah and De Bruyne for points per start among players with substantial game-time. If he makes the teamsheet in Gameweek 34 (we await the midweek minutes and news on the knock that positional rival Gabriel Jesus (£8.4m) picked up on Saturday), then he could haul against a Watford side that have allowed the joint-highest number of chances from their left flank over the last six matches.
The slightly less prolific Phil Foden (£7.8m) and Raheem Sterling (£10.5m) also come into the thinking. They’re both level with De Bruyne for non-penalty xGI over their last six matches, which neatly encapsulates City: attacking returns and points spread out over multiple players.
As for the ‘other’ team who double, it’s pretty much a premium attacker or nothing when it comes to Manchester United. We’re not going anywhere near a defence that conceded two goals against 20th-place Norwich on Saturday, while Jadon Sancho (£8.9m) has reverted back to his disappointing early-season form since the March international break.
Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.2m) and Bruno Fernandes (£11.6m) are both among the top eight Premier League players for non-penalty xGI over the last six matches, and while it’d be foolish to dismiss the credentials of Fernandes despite his post-contract-renewal slump, it’s Ronaldo who is hitting his stride, scoring six goals since his younger compatriot last found the target. Injury-hit Arsenal’s current struggles at the back increase the appeal of the veteran hitman, although we’ll have to wait to hear if he is still up for selection following the tragic loss of his baby son – not that Gameweek 34 involvement matters one iota in the grand scheme of things.
THE LONG SHOTS
Cheaper targets will be needed to fund the premium picks in contention above.
Teemu Pukki (£5.9m) and Jean-Philippe Mateta (£5.3m) have a combined 10 attacking returns between them in the last six matches and enter the equation, with Pukki’s non-penalty xGI unbeaten by any Premier League forward in that time. Mateta and Palace have the easier-on-paper fixture, however, against a Leeds side with only one clean sheet to their name in their last 18 league games.
The Eagles’ recent defensive form is also excellent at Selhurst Park, with the might of Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City able to muster only one goal between them in recent visits to south London, so their array of sub-£5.0m budget gems at the back are also worthy of consideration.
Their rivals from further down the M23, Brighton, have looked much better defensively in their last two matches since a change in shape, so they are potentially in the running against a Southampton side who would have been away at Burnley less than 72 hours before kick-off at the Amex. Marc Cucurella (£4.9m) is a BPS magnet who has collected more bonus points this season than all bar four defenders, all of whom are the premiums at the top of this piece.
We’re not overreacting to one blank by demoting the erstwhile in-form Son Heung-min (£11.1m) and Harry Kane (£12.6m) to ‘long shot’ status, incidentally – it’s more the fact that premiums elsewhere have more straightforward fixtures (Liverpool, City) or ‘double’ in Gameweek 34 (Chelsea, United) and it’s an acknowledgement that our budget only stretches so far. Brentford are, in fact, third in the Premier League form table over the last six matches.
It looks like a bit of a week-to-week crapshoot with James Maddison (£7.0m) and Leicester assets, meanwhile, with Brendan Rodgers turning his mind to Europe and energy preservation on the home front.
As for Arsenal, faith in the Gunners has dipped a little after three successive losses. A ropey Man Utd backline gives them a good chance to bounce back on Saturday lunchtime but then we also thought that might be the case with a supposedly ‘on the beach’ Southampton, so our money might be best invested elsewhere until Mikel Arteta’s troops are out of their funk.
We made it this far without mentioning our Bruno Guimaraes (£4.9m) pick in Gameweek 33 but the Brazilian and his Newcastle teammates are next away at Norwich, who are conceding at a rate of over two goals per match. Guimaraes ranks highly among his teammates for many of the key attacking stats, although this will be the third match that the Magpies have fulfilled in under a week.
GAMEWEEK 34 BUS TEAM
