Our latest Members article series, reviving an old Scout strand called Tales of the Expected, explores the latest expected goals (xG) data, assessing each side from an attacking and defensive perspective.
In addition, we’ll also check out the form players on show, asking if their recent output is sustainable.
Having last looked at these tables after Gameweek 19, it’s time to revisit them again, armed with the latest stats from the restart.
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TEAMS
First up, let’s take a look at the minutes per xG data since the end of the World Cup to find out what changes, if any, have occurred at Premier League clubs.
MINS PER XG: GAMEWEEK 17-21
The top five are unchanged since last time, but Brighton and Hove Albion are up two places to sixth. The Seagulls’ tally of 14 goals from 8.06 xG is remarkable, and as the players become more familiar with Roberto De Zerbi’s playing style, it’s exciting to think what they could achieve in the second half of the season.
Liverpool, meanwhile, are in desperate need of goals, with just six in their five games from Gameweek 17 onwards. They’ve underperformed their xG by 3.40 in that time, with Darwin Nunez (£8.8m) culpable for a whopping 2.71 of that total.
As for Newcastle United, they have scored even fewer – four goals from 8.75 xG. No team has underachieved more in front of goal than the Magpies since the restart, with 12 of their 16 ‘big chances’ fluffed.
Nottingham Forest maintained their momentum by registering their eighth point from 15 on Saturday, which suggests they are turning their season around. After 22 new players arrived in the summer, Steve Cooper is finally transforming them into a cohesive unit, although they do need to become more clinical in the attacking third.
That applies to Chelsea too, but there are signs that they are moving in the right direction again under Graham Potter. The Blues have won the xG battle in four of their six games since the Premier League resumed, they are just lacking that bit of composure in front of goal. Maybe new arrivals Mykhailo Mudryk (£7.0m) and Joao Felix (£7.5m) can help on that front, with some very decent fixtures on the horizon:
Elsewhere, London rivals Tottenham Hotspur haven’t created much since the restart, while Crystal Palace’s issues in attack could be good news for owners of Luke Shaw (£5.2m) in Gameweek 22. The Eagles have had 64 shots since the restart, but just three of those efforts have been Opta-defined ‘big chances’.
CRYSTAL PALACE XG BREAKDOWN: GAMEWEEK 17-21
| GW17 (FUL) | GW18 (bou) | GW19 (TOT) | GW20 (che) | GW20 (MUN) | GW21 (NEW) | |
| Crystal Palace | 0.40 | 1.59 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.30 |
MINS PER XGC: GAMEWEEK 17-21
