FPL Focal previews the weekend’s Fantasy Premier League (FPL) action, taking a look at who the bookies think are the best bets for goals and clean sheets as well as monitoring the latest transfer trends.
Make sure to also check out G-Whizz’s weekly Hot Topic on fixture and clean sheet odds, which also looks back at how the bookmakers performed in the previous Gameweek.
GAMEWEEK 30: GOALSCORER ODDS
Jumping straight in with the goalscorer odds, which assume that the player will start. Millions of FPL managers are waiting for news on Erling Haaland (£12.0m), to see whether he’s recovered from his groin injury. We should know pre-deadline whether he makes the squad, although not ‘officially’.
Manchester City are away to Southampton and Haaland is given a 53% chance of scoring at any time, which is comfortably top. Marcus Rashford (£7.3m) is second with 38%, as Manchester United host an Everton side that impressively managed to dig out a point against Tottenham Hotspur.
Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest’s record on the road has been very poor, capped off with another away loss at Elland Road in midweek. Now they travel to Aston Villa, meaning that in-form Ollie Watkins (£7.5m) has emerged as a genuine captaincy shout after Gameweek 29’s 17 points.
Mohamed Salah (£12.8m) was one of many Liverpool players surprisingly benched against Chelsea but you’d expect him to return to the starting line-up for the game against Arsenal, providing there’s an innocent explanation behind Thursday’s training no-show. Perhaps Oleksandr Zinchenko‘s (£5.2m) inverted role is something that Salah can exploit, as it leaves an amount of wide space that a counter-attacking team of Liverpool’s calibre can punish.
Eddie Howe has two in-form forwards at Newcastle United and Callum Wilson (£6.9m) makes the list ahead of Alexander Isak (£6.7m) with a 32.5% chance, although some rotation has already been taking place.
Something else to be mindful of is James Maddison‘s (£8.3m) late withdrawal against Aston Villa but cramp was cited as a reason and there were no new injuries reported by Adam Sadler ahead of the Gameweek 29 clash with Bournemouth. It’s such a great fixture, so owners will be hoping he makes that one.
GAMEWEEK 30: CLEAN SHEET ODDS
Moving on to clean sheets, it feels like very few of us own Man City defensive assets. They’re top this week with a 52% chance and could soon be back in the conversation, particularly the nailed-on Ederson (£5.4m). The champions have a Double Gameweek 34 versus Fulham and West Ham United, plus another one that’ll probably occur in Gameweek 37.
Man United have been given a 45% chance against Everton, followed by Aston Villa’s 42% against Nottingham Forest. Tyrone Mings (£4.4m) has been in excellent form recently with five returns from his last six games and, at the same cheap price, Alex Moreno (£4.4m) offers a more attacking option.
Chelsea travel to Wolves aiming to record back-to-back clean sheets. Ben Chilwell (£6.0m) took all three bonus points in midweek against Liverpool and came off early. With their packed schedule including a pair of Champions League quarter-finals, there’s some concern that Chilwell’s minutes will be managed but, if it just involves early substitutions, that’s perfectly fine.
It’s an awkward Gameweek where lots of our attackers face our defenders, such as Harry Kane (£11.7m) and Ivan Toney (£7.9m) going up against Brighton and Hove Albion and Newcastle’s backlines.
At the bottom are Southampton (9.5%) and Everton (14.5%) versus the Manchester sides.
GAMEWEEK 30: MOST TRANSFERS IN
It’s a close battle to be crowned this week’s most-bought player but Gabriel Jesus (£8.0m) is currently in front. He bagged a brace against Leeds at a time when many are in the market for a new forward.
Arsenal are without any blanks or doubles for the rest of the season, which also affects teammate Ben White (£4.8m) – now the second-highest-scoring defender in the game. He’s had 78,000 purchases this week and should be secure now that Takehiro Tomiyasu (£4.2m) is injured.
As a reminder, Gameweek 32 is blank for Brighton, Chelsea, Man City and Man United so be careful with your transfers before then. It’s human nature to think “I’ll cross that bridge later” but you could end up being significantly short of players if you don’t use a chip that week.
There have been 54,000 transfers in for Kaoru Mitoma (£5.6m), with a return in five successive matches. There has been some incredible consistency from him and the other Brighton assets, who will have a Double Gameweek 34 plus likely further doubles in 36 and 37. A triple-up is almost essential for the rest of the season although, if you’re not there yet, it can perhaps wait until after the sequence of Spurs (a), Chelsea (a) then the blank.
GAMEWEEK 30: MOST TRANSFERS OUT
Finally, a quick look at the most sold players. William Saliba‘s (£5.1m) injury puts him top with 170,000 sales, as Miguel Almiron‘s (£5.4m) sales are for the same reason.
It could be premature to sell Haaland now. 53,000 have dropped him but hold your transfers until closer to the deadline – if Pep Guardiola comes out and says he’s trained all week, you really don’t want to be dropping him before facing last-placed Southampton.
Elsewhere, it was announced this week that Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.6m) will serve an eight-match suspension for pushing a referee, so we won’t see him until mid-May. Shockingly, 25,000 have ditched Rashford, which is a recipe for disaster given he tops the projected points for this weekend.
Kai Havertz (£7.6m) was Double Gameweek 29’s biggest expected goals (xG) underperformer, failing to net from an xG of 1.65. Over 24,000 have had enough and decided to sell.
