This Members article series, reviving an old Scout strand called Tales of the Expected, explores the expected goals (xG) data from the last six matches, assessing each side from an attacking and defensive perspective. In addition, we’ll also check out the form players on show.
Having last looked at these tables ahead of Gameweek 28, it’s time to revisit them again, armed with the latest stats from our Members Area.
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TEAMS
XG: LAST SIX MATCHES
Arsenal move up to first, having created 14.04 xG across their last six matches at an average of 2.34 per game. Sure, they’ve benefitted from a much easier run, but that’s set to continue in Blank Gameweek 32 when they host struggling Southampton at the Emirates.
ARSENAL’S XG BREAKDOWN: LAST SIX MATCHES
| GW31 (whu) | GW30 (liv) | GW29 (LEE) | GW28 (CRY) | GW27 (ful) | GW26 (BOU) | |
| xG | 2.75 | 1.41 | 3.78 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 2.17 |
Newcastle were toothless up front for much of Saturday’s clash with Aston Villa, which was surprising given that they’ve created some high-quality chances of late, none more so than in the 5-1 thumping of West Ham United in Double Gameweek 29, when they racked up five big chances. However, Unai Emery’s in-form troops bossed it from start to finish, winning the xG battle by 1.93-0.52. Villa’s 12 wins from 18 league games under the Spaniard is a stark contrast to the form they were in when he arrived in November.
Just below the Magpies is Liverpool in fifth, fresh from the 6-1 demolition job on Leeds United at Elland Road, followed by four sides who arrive in contrasting form.
Manchester United recorded an xG figure of 3.48 at The City Ground on Sunday, racking up over 3 xG for the second game running, while four wins across their last six matches has propelled Bournemouth up the table. The Cherries xG numbers give reason to be positive too, with six of their remaining seven opponents bottom-half teams.
They beat Tottenham Hotspur 3-2 on Saturday, whose underlying numbers are that of a mid-table team of late. Antonio Conte departed after the 3-3 draw at Southampton, but Cristian Stellini has stuck to the same blueprint, resulting in the same lack of imagination. As for Chelsea, we’re now two Premier League games into Frank Lampard’s second stint as manager but they are winless, having failed to create a single Opta-defined ‘big chance’ against Brighton and Hove Albion and Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Elsewhere, three wins on the bounce for Roy Hodgson since taking back over at Selhurst Park looks to have saved Crystal Palace from the drop. In fact, the nine goals they have scored since his appointment is as many as they had netted in their previous 16 league games.
CRYSTAL PALACE’S XG BREAKDOWN: LAST SIX MATCHES
| Under Hodgson | Under McCarthy | Under Vieira | ||||
| GW31 (sou) | GW30 (lee) | GW29 (LEI) | GW28 (ars) | GW27 (bha) | GW27 (MCI) | |
| xG | 0.87 | 3.15 | 2.42 | 0.78 | 1.20 | 0.21 |
Without the suspended Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.6m), Fulham have struggled to create clear-cut opportunities, but they did look much better at Goodison Park at the weekend, creating 1.82 xG. Rather than Carlos Vinicius (£5.4m), it was Daniel James (£5.9m) selected in a no. 9 role, flanked by Harry Wilson (£5.7m) and Willian (£5.5m).
“We changed the profile of our no. 9 to use James as a striker because we wanted to explore some things in their back line, in behind the two central defenders, with Harry Wilson on the right side as well. We did really well, the players took to the plan.” – Marco Silva
Below Fulham is Southampton and Nottingham Forest, which will pique the interest of Fantasy managers, especially those on a Gameweek 32 Free Hit. It suggests we shouldn’t ignore defenders from Arsenal and Liverpool, given that they face the two worst-performing attacks in the division, both in terms of actual goals and xG in the last six matches.
Recent displays are a huge concern for both these relegation-threatened clubs. The Saints have struggled for consistency since Ruben Selles took over. He won two of his first three games, but they have been unable to create dangerous goal-scoring opportunities, averaging just 0.88 xG per match overall.
As for Nott’m Forest, they are winless in their last 10 matches, registering just 0.98 xG against Man Utd and Aston Villa… combined! You’d think the back-three experiment is over, then, given that lack of creativity, at a time when they are in desperate need of goals.
XGC: LAST SIX MATCHES
