Spot the Differential
9 May 2023 838 comments
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Double Gameweek 36 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is on the horizon, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some fresh differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Chelsea, Newcastle United and Everton, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

NONI MADUEKE

  • FPL ownership: 0.1%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW36-38 fixtures: NFO | mci + mun | NEW

Noni Madueke (£5.4m) put in another strong showing at the weekend, as Chelsea ended their losing run under Frank Lampard.

After opening his account against Arsenal in Gameweek 34, the England U21 international was a real threat at Bournemouth, racking up three shots and more penalty box touches (12) than anyone on show.

Deployed on the right of a front three for the most part, he saw plenty of the ball, completing six dribbles, twice as many as the next player on the pitch. If he replicates that role against Nottingham Forest in Gameweek 36, he’ll be up against their weaker left flank, something we’ve previously highlighted.

Steve Cooper’s side also rank bottom for big chances conceded (23) in their last six matches, a period that has seen them ship 13 goals, so there is potential for Madueke to do well.

As for Chelsea, they registered their first win under Lampard with a 3-1 victory over Bournemouth last time out. It’s been a miserable campaign for the Blues, but they have improved since moving to a 4-3-3 formation with the ball. Now, they host Nott’m Forest, before their Gameweek 37 double-header.

Madueke is a raw but exciting player, who has proven in his last two matches that he has to be in Lampard’s plans for the run-in. That makes him an excellent differential for the remainder of the season, with potentially four matches in the next three Gameweeks.

JOE WILLOCK

FPL Gameweek 33 differentials: Olise, Willock + Solanke 1
  • FPL ownership: 1.1%
  • Price: £4.7m
  • GW36-38 fixtures: lee + BHA | LEI | che

Joe Willock (£4.7m) has been one of Newcastle’s standout performers in recent months, with one goal and four assists in his last 10 appearances.

In that time (Gameweek 27 onwards), he’s attempted 24 goal attempts and 15 shots in the box, totals only beaten by one team-mate – Alexander Isak (£7.0m). He’s also created 14 chances, and it’s that duel threat that has seen him rack up 5.44 expected goal involvement (xGI), a team-leading total.

Newcastle failed to break down a resilient Arsenal outfit at the weekend, but they had scored a league-high 13 goals in their previous three, so you’d expect them to do well when they visit leaky Leeds United on Saturday, the first of two fixtures in Double Gameweek 36.

A home meeting with Brighton follows before hosting relegation-threatened Leicester City. Both of those opponents conceded five goals in their most recent outings, offering encouragement to those investing in Newcastle’s attack.

It’s also worth noting in their last four matches, the Magpies place top for expected goals (xG), joint-top for big chances and second for shots in the box.

Willock is in a really good moment right now, having started each of the last six matches, and could be a quality budget midfielder to bring in ahead of Double Gameweek 36.

DOMINIC CALVERT-LEWIN

  • FPL ownership: 0.3%
  • Price: £7.9m
  • GW36-38 fixtures: MCI | wol | BOU

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.9m) was back to his best on Monday, claiming his second consecutive attacking return.

Even though he didn’t score at the Amex, he was a constant threat, running Brighton centre-backs Lewis Dunk (£4.8m) and Adam Webster (£4.5m) ragged and earning the assist for Abdoulaye Doucoure’s (£5.3m) opener.

We haven’t seen Calvert-Lewin look this sharp in a long time, with Sean Dyche’s careful management of his star forward starting to pay off.

Indeed, his return has given the whole Everton squad a lift, and they are clearly benefitting from having a proper focal point in attack, as they rank sixth for xG in the last four, coinciding with the former England forward’s comeback.

Everton’s 5-1 win at Brighton moved them up to 17th in the Premier League table, two points clear of the relegation zone. Their immediate fixture against Man City is challenging but anything can happen as we reach this crunch stage of the season, as evidenced on Monday.

Pep Guardiola’s troops will have their hands full at Goodison Park, too, with key UEFA Champions League semi-finals against Real Madrid either side. Beyond that, Everton finish up with two very appealing fixtures against Wolves and Bournemouth.

Calvert-Lewin is finally injury free, on penalties, and we’re backing his good run of form to continue, making him a decent differential pick for the run-in.



838 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. DropkickMurphys
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Took them 5-6 seconds lol

  2. Alan The Llama
    • 16 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Vinicius Jr, Mbappe and Haaland are the future.

    1. Scalper
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Mbappe is 25 later this year.

      Weird I know

  3. DycheDycheBaby
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    What a goal Vini Junior

    1. Goodfeathers
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Such a fantastic player.

  4. JBG
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    What a goal by Vini Jr

  5. SkyByBo
    • 16 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    City have been dreadful, so slow, so negative, just walking around passing it backwards, deserve to be losing.

    1. Cheeky Reijnders
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Rubbish.

  6. Sun Jihai
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    2nd Vinicius that City have conceded against now!

  7. Scapegoat Salah
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Can’t believe this guy plays for Fulham

    1. Gandalf
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Very generous of Fulham to loan him for the match.

      1. Scapegoat Salah
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Yes, great turnaround time too

  8. OverTinker
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    out of nowhere

    1. Isco Disco
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      That’s always been the game plan for Real Madrid. They always score out of nowhere

  9. Isco Disco
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    VINIIIIIIIIIIII
    VINI VINI VINI What a goal!
    HALA MADRID!

  10. Cheeky Reijnders
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Hitman Rudiger up to his usual antics. Surprised he hasn't taken KDB out yet. Disgrace. And I'm a Chelsea supporter.

    1. DropkickMurphys
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      They had to find someone after Casemiro did it for so long

  11. Piggs Boson
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Camavinga is a beast

  12. ritzyd
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    1 total shots, 1 shot on target, Ederson clean gone . . . Nee GK needed in the summer 😀

    Although greag finish in fairness!

    1. Scapegoat Salah
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Yeah don’t think that was actually save-able

      1. Scapegoat Salah
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Even stood behind it I think the power would take you into the net with the ball

      2. putana
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        was a nice shot be top goalies save that

        1. Bobby Crush
          • 11 Years
          2 years, 7 months ago

          yep

    2. Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Ederson classic

  13. Scapegoat Salah
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Rodrygo so good

  14. The Mandalorian
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Madrids tactic was obviously to sit deep for 30 mins then attack.

    1. Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Can't press with old men

      1. The Mandalorian
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Exactly

    2. Isco Disco
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      That should be the game plan for every team that wants to beat City. Sit deep, defend well, let them have possession, attack after 30 mins and take the chances well to score when it matters

  15. Isco Disco
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    We need more. Let’s make it Madrid 3-0 City!
    We got this! A Por La 15th

    1. Sure You Did
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Are you Spanish?

      1. Isco Disco
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Learning to speak Spanish

        1. Sure You Did
          • 2 Years
          2 years, 7 months ago

          Do you stay Madrid?

  16. El Presidente
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    City bottling the Champions League... what a classic.

    1. Sure You Did
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Getting beat 1-0 by Real Madrid at the Bernabeu after bossing the game is hardly bottling it. For bottling it, please use Arsenal and Spurs as a reference point.

      1. El Presidente
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Bossing you mean casually strolling around passing the ball sideways and backwards...

        1. Cheeky Reijnders
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          2 years, 7 months ago

          A draw is fine for City. You care to "stroll around" in 30 degrees, eejit?

    2. Piggs Boson
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Not even a quarter of the match is gone...

    3. Stimps
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Are you expect city to wipe the floor with Madrid or something?

      1. El Presidente
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Well plenty of teams in La Liga have done exactly that this season

        1. Maddamotha
          • 9 Years
          2 years, 7 months ago

          And yet they’re in the semifinals of the CL..

          1. El Presidente
            • 6 Years
            2 years, 7 months ago

            Your point being....

    4. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Not really

    5. Bluetiger1
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      a game of four halves - first half Real Madrid

      1. Bluetiger1
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Possession Man City 68%

  17. OverTinker
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    City needs to be brave if they have to defeat Madrid

  18. Paul Psychic Octopus
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Ref needs to get a grip on Carvajal.
    Disgusting footballer, taken up where Ramos left off.

    1. DA Minnion (Former great)
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Yeah he's a little reptile.

    2. Cheeky Reijnders
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Agree. Him and Rudiger....filth!

  19. JBG
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    How did Grealish not get anything there??? I remember Scholes getting a RC after punching the air in front of the face of a Pool player.

    1. Sure You Did
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Why are you bringing perpetuallly irreverent Man U into the discussion?

      1. JBG
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Because that was the one example that came to mind at this moment. Anything else you're wondering about?

      2. Sure You Did
        • 2 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        *irrelevant, but most people will know what I meant. Hard not to.

      3. DARE TO BISCAN
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Irreverent - "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."

        1. Sure You Did
          • 2 Years
          2 years, 7 months ago

          I don't think you know the meaning of "keep using that word" or the use of quotation marks.

          1. DARE TO BISCAN
            • 7 Years
            2 years, 7 months ago

            Calm down. It's a clip from a film. I always think about it when people fail at using 'big words'. Here: https://youtube.com/shorts/pSo5HVjbWOE?feature=share

    2. DycheDycheBaby
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Because Carvajal is a little diving rat

      1. JBG
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Still.. he punched/swiped(whatever you wanna call it) at him.

    3. SkyByBo
      • 16 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      What? He didn't do anything...

      1. JBG
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Look above

    4. FPL Alaska
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Because Carvajal mugged him then bent over him taunting him. Dude is a scumbag.

      1. JBG
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Oh I agree 100%, still the rules state that violent conduct is a RC offence.

        1. FPL Alaska
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          2 years, 7 months ago

          "Violent conduct" is open to interpretation. And IMO should also be open to circumstances. Ref got this one 100% right.

  20. DycheDycheBaby
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    This game is getting spicy!

  21. Fintroy
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Waiting for the 60 min man city subs, those who are "hooked" should start against Everton, those that aren't (Robot apart) are a rotation risk

    1. Alan The Llama
      • 16 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      There's no pattern. If there was, someone would've spotted it before now.

  22. Bishopool
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    City are bullied hard!

  23. Bobby Crush
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Carvajal is an embarrassment to the sport.

    1. Bishopool
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Nothing new, classic provocation so opponent would get unnecessary red.

      At the same time if its clearly unsporty move, then I think yellow should be mandatory.

  24. putana
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Real Madrid players get away with everything in the champions league. Nothing new

  25. J to the T
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Plan for this GW was Watkins to Isak but now with the March injury I’m not so sure.

    A. March to Macalister and bench Watkins
    B. Hold March on the bench and do Watkins to Isak as planned
    C. March and Watkins to Macalister and Isak (-4). Bench one of Jesus, Rashford or Mahrez

    1. Bluetiger1
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      B

    2. DARE TO BISCAN
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      B

    3. Snake Juice
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      B

      1. J to the T
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks guys

    4. Sure You Did
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      B, and play Mahrez.

    5. My heart goes Salalalalah
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      A

  26. The Mandalorian
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    BT Sport not showing a close up of the female host is just weird.

    1. DBW - Slug's Mortgage …
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Weird post

      1. The Mandalorian
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        What's weird is they don't think she's important and ignore her.

    2. Sure You Did
      • 2 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Agreed, what is the point of a female presenter if we don't get close ups.

      1. DBW - Slug's Mortgage …
        • 4 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        What an outdated view on the world.

        1. artvandelay316
          • 4 Years
          2 years, 7 months ago

          Nothing outdated about men enjoying seeing attractive women. It's human instinct. When that becomes outdated it'll be the beginning of the end of the human race.

        2. Dickie1898
          • 11 Years
          2 years, 7 months ago

          Outdated to who, certain demographics throughout the western world? Sums up your warped sense of moral superiority. Newsflash, most of the world are not aligned with such progressive ideology.

        3. The Mandalorian
          • 13 Years
          2 years, 7 months ago

          You call it outdated but have no problem with her being ignored by the cameras. Total contradiction

          1. DBW - Slug's Mortgage …
            • 4 Years
            2 years, 7 months ago

            I didn’t see the HT talk. Just surprised at these comments.

            Sure you did says there’s no point in female presenters unless there are close ups for him to jerk to.

            1. The Mandalorian
              • 13 Years
              2 years, 7 months ago

              Jerk to ? Sort yourself out. It's blatantly disrespectful to just ignore the host. You want to sound progressive but saying nothing about this lack of equality. Doesn't suite your agenda of trying to make out my comment was about sexual gratification.

              1. The Mandalorian
                • 13 Years
                2 years, 7 months ago

                *suit

              2. DBW - Slug's Mortgage …
                • 4 Years
                2 years, 7 months ago

                The poster sure you did comments were sexist.

                Look at the name of the poster.

  27. The Mighty Whites
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Welbeck or Ferguson as a punt

    1. JBG
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Welbeck seems to be first choice. But De Zerbi loves to rotate, so hard to say.

  28. Zenith UK
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    How is that shoulder barge on Vini a foul but the one against City in the box wasn't? Joke ref.

  29. nerd_is_the_werd
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Real Madrid probably favourites to progress if it ends up 1-0

  30. DBW - Slug's Mortgage …
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Real Madrid playing at the Bernabeau is like Man Utd at Old Trafford in the 90s.

    Refs are paid.