Spot the Differential
9 May 2023 838 comments
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Double Gameweek 36 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is on the horizon, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some fresh differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Chelsea, Newcastle United and Everton, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

NONI MADUEKE

  • FPL ownership: 0.1%
  • Price: £5.4m
  • GW36-38 fixtures: NFO | mci + mun | NEW

Noni Madueke (£5.4m) put in another strong showing at the weekend, as Chelsea ended their losing run under Frank Lampard.

After opening his account against Arsenal in Gameweek 34, the England U21 international was a real threat at Bournemouth, racking up three shots and more penalty box touches (12) than anyone on show.

Deployed on the right of a front three for the most part, he saw plenty of the ball, completing six dribbles, twice as many as the next player on the pitch. If he replicates that role against Nottingham Forest in Gameweek 36, he’ll be up against their weaker left flank, something we’ve previously highlighted.

Steve Cooper’s side also rank bottom for big chances conceded (23) in their last six matches, a period that has seen them ship 13 goals, so there is potential for Madueke to do well.

As for Chelsea, they registered their first win under Lampard with a 3-1 victory over Bournemouth last time out. It’s been a miserable campaign for the Blues, but they have improved since moving to a 4-3-3 formation with the ball. Now, they host Nott’m Forest, before their Gameweek 37 double-header.

Madueke is a raw but exciting player, who has proven in his last two matches that he has to be in Lampard’s plans for the run-in. That makes him an excellent differential for the remainder of the season, with potentially four matches in the next three Gameweeks.

JOE WILLOCK

FPL Gameweek 33 differentials: Olise, Willock + Solanke 1
  • FPL ownership: 1.1%
  • Price: £4.7m
  • GW36-38 fixtures: lee + BHA | LEI | che

Joe Willock (£4.7m) has been one of Newcastle’s standout performers in recent months, with one goal and four assists in his last 10 appearances.

In that time (Gameweek 27 onwards), he’s attempted 24 goal attempts and 15 shots in the box, totals only beaten by one team-mate – Alexander Isak (£7.0m). He’s also created 14 chances, and it’s that duel threat that has seen him rack up 5.44 expected goal involvement (xGI), a team-leading total.

Newcastle failed to break down a resilient Arsenal outfit at the weekend, but they had scored a league-high 13 goals in their previous three, so you’d expect them to do well when they visit leaky Leeds United on Saturday, the first of two fixtures in Double Gameweek 36.

A home meeting with Brighton follows before hosting relegation-threatened Leicester City. Both of those opponents conceded five goals in their most recent outings, offering encouragement to those investing in Newcastle’s attack.

It’s also worth noting in their last four matches, the Magpies place top for expected goals (xG), joint-top for big chances and second for shots in the box.

Willock is in a really good moment right now, having started each of the last six matches, and could be a quality budget midfielder to bring in ahead of Double Gameweek 36.

DOMINIC CALVERT-LEWIN

  • FPL ownership: 0.3%
  • Price: £7.9m
  • GW36-38 fixtures: MCI | wol | BOU

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.9m) was back to his best on Monday, claiming his second consecutive attacking return.

Even though he didn’t score at the Amex, he was a constant threat, running Brighton centre-backs Lewis Dunk (£4.8m) and Adam Webster (£4.5m) ragged and earning the assist for Abdoulaye Doucoure’s (£5.3m) opener.

We haven’t seen Calvert-Lewin look this sharp in a long time, with Sean Dyche’s careful management of his star forward starting to pay off.

Indeed, his return has given the whole Everton squad a lift, and they are clearly benefitting from having a proper focal point in attack, as they rank sixth for xG in the last four, coinciding with the former England forward’s comeback.

Everton’s 5-1 win at Brighton moved them up to 17th in the Premier League table, two points clear of the relegation zone. Their immediate fixture against Man City is challenging but anything can happen as we reach this crunch stage of the season, as evidenced on Monday.

Pep Guardiola’s troops will have their hands full at Goodison Park, too, with key UEFA Champions League semi-finals against Real Madrid either side. Beyond that, Everton finish up with two very appealing fixtures against Wolves and Bournemouth.

Calvert-Lewin is finally injury free, on penalties, and we’re backing his good run of form to continue, making him a decent differential pick for the run-in.



838 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Ragabolly
    • 15 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Risers: None

    Fallers: Saka (8.1) Mbeumo (5.6) Tetê (4.9)

    1. Botman and Robben
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Cheers Ragabolly

  2. dabber7
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Please, for the remainder of the season (already have Isak but no other Arsenal). I know Wilson has the extra fixture but Odegaard is completely nailed?

    A) Wilson (leeds, BRIGHTON, LEICESTER, chelsea)
    or
    B) Odegaard (BRIGHTON, forest, WOLVES)

    Many thanks

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      A

    2. Hairy Potter
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      B

    3. Die Hard
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Ideally Newcastle for their double then Arenal for their last games

      1. the dom 1
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        agreed 🙂

  3. Deer-in-headlights
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    What to do with KDB? Leading ML, but main rival has Bruno, no KDB. 17 pt lead.
    A. FT to Bruno
    B. Bench for Akanji/Shaw, save FT
    C. Play KDB, save FT

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 16 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Is ML most important?

      1. Deer-in-headlights
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Yes. Cash league. Rank important but less so.

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 16 Years
          2 years, 7 months ago

          A let's you sleep better.

          1. Deer-in-headlights
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            2 years, 7 months ago

            Agreed. Thanks.

  4. The Knights Template
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Posting again because everyone else does it.

    Have $5.3m budget, March to:

    A) Billing
    B) Iwobiiiiiii
    C) McNeil
    D) Olise
    E) Soucek (the Destoyer)
    F) Doucoure (Everton not Palace)
    G) Aperol Sabitzer
    H) Maitland-Niles
    I) Other (not Dendoncker or Newcastle players)

    Exciting times! Thank you for your consideration.

    1. LegendMoon
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      McNeil is in a bit of form and fighting for survival so maybe him but only if you can bench this week

    2. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      C McNeil 😉

    3. Hairy Potter
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Danilo in scoring form

    4. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Thanks everyone, much appreciated. I was really hoping for five responses, so I'll see everyone on the next page!

    5. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Willock

      Bench & roll otherwise, assuming you have a decent alternative to play

    6. RichRover
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      McNeil gets me excited every time!

    7. Sharkytect
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      I'd go billing based on a combo of recent npxgi and fixtures.

    8. mdm
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      C

    9. tibollom
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      id go C

    10. Prinzhorn
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      I'd stay away from McNeil because he is an Everton player.

  5. the dom 1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Which one would you start this GW?

    a. Martinelli v BHA

    b. Jota v LEI

    Cheers

    1. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Jota

    2. Ruinenlust
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Jota

    3. King Sheep
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Jota

    4. the dom 1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Cheers

  6. Sid07
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    play
    1) murphy
    2) watkins
    3) stones

    1. Hairy Potter
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Murphy

    2. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      1

  7. SpaceCadet
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Thoughts on Gros over Mac as a differential?

    1. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Nup

    2. C. SAMBA
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      no

      1. RichRover
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Is that you Chris?

    3. RichRover
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Nay

  8. Jengkreng
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Look like tough game for m city last night....i think pep will rest several main player...so will get fresh team for second leg...not sure what to with grealish and stones?..not sure they will start or not

    1. Jengkreng
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Should i transfer grealish to bruno?

      1. C. SAMBA
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        yes. Grealish to Bruno

    2. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      I think he will play them into the ground.

      1. Jengkreng
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        U mean bruno?

    3. Nate(U)dog(ie)
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      I own both and am unsure too. Stones did get a rest v Leeds and had played 3 games (of more or less 90 mins each time) in a row before that within about 9/10 days, so I think he will probably be fine to play, Grealish had had very few breaks in the last 3 months before Leeds so I expect him to start all the remaining games now personally unless Pep feels he needs Foden for a specific match up.

      1. Jengkreng
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        You think bruno will score more than grealish?

        1. Nate(U)dog(ie)
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 7 months ago

          He has 1g 1a in 10 games so he's not doing great, although he has been unlucky in some games I've seen. Wolves are poor away from home too but ManUtd aren't playing great right now or scoring much, I'm thinking of benching Rashford for Grealish so I'd probably have to say that I could see him outscoring Bruno

  9. MYKthe96
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Raya

    Stones - Trippier - Estu

    Mitoma - Rashford - Salah - March - Grealish

    Isak - Haaland

    Bench: Kepa, Botman, Jota, Shaw

    I have :
    0.5 in the bank
    2 Free Transfers

    I want to sell Botman to bring in a Newcastle attacker
    Do I?
    A) Botman > Guehi , March > Willock
    B) Botman > Guehi , Jota > Wilson

    I'm on 300k OR, looking to chase rank
    Any other transfers are welcome.

    1. fish&chips
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Don't think it's worth a transfer to switch defender to attacker. Can you just do March -> Mac and save?

      1. MYKthe96
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        I think there is upside with bringing in a Newcastle attacker this week. They could've scored more vs Arsenal, but Ramsdale was built different haha.
        Botman hasn't been convincing enough for me, and I have a feeling he'll provide me 4 points this week, if I were to keep him.

        As for Mac, I see the point with bringing him. He was unlucky not to bring more goals against Everton. I just don't know if he can explode for me this GW.

        Thank you for your feedback.

  10. fish&chips
    • 15 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Steele*,
    TAA, Schar, Trippier (c)
    Mahrez, Salah, Mitoma*, March*, Rashford
    Haaland, Jota

    Kepa, Shaw, Stones, Greenwood

    2FT, 1.2m ITB

    I'm increasingly considering March -> Willock and save

    No Isak or Wilson is risky but if I'm lucky wiilock can match them and it saves me a transfer to jump on 37 and 38 differentials and keep mahrez and Jota who have a lot of upside.

    Thoughts?

    1. DannyD
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Sounds good to me

    2. Kitman
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Shaw could easily match willock for points though and he’s sat on your bench

  11. Sad Pablo Arsecobar
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    March to mac -4?

    1. fish&chips
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Na not for this week unless your bench is trash. Their fixtures are poor. Just bench him and reconsider for the next double

      1. Sad Pablo Arsecobar
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks F&C probably wise. Thinking Gallagher as a differential next gw

    2. King Sheep
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      No

  12. Donny_Rover
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    My plan this week has always been to sell KDB (GW34 fail) to free up some funds and get Isak (either Bruno or another City mid in) but now I kind of want to keep him. Any obvious route that I’m missing to get Isak in and keep the King? March’s injury has also complicated things as was planning to bench Estu

    Ederson
    Trippier Botman TAA Estu (Mings)
    Salah KDB* Mac Rashford (March)
    Haaland Solanke* (Greenwood)

    2FT, £0.6m ITB

  13. Sad Pablo Arsecobar
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    I'm also thinking save as I have a decent bench.. and conor Gallagher as a differential next gw

  14. DavvaMC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Is March to Mac the best transfer if you already have Mitoma?

    Brighton's fixtures are tough.

    1. mdm
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Yes

    2. King Sheep
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Yup

    3. Kitman
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Check if your bench can cover March first as Brighton’s double is tough

  15. mdm
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Which one to play?

    A. Shaw (WOL)
    B. Jota (lei)
    C. Grealish (eve)

    Thanks.

    1. King Sheep
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      B

    2. MYKthe96
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Jota

  16. SpaceCadet
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Better option here?

    a/ march > mac -4
    b/ save

    kepa
    trippier shaw dunk
    salah rashford mitoma march
    haaland wilson isak

    ederson grealish zinchenko mee

    1. DannyD
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Save. Play Grealish.

      1. SpaceCadet
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Doubt he starts though

  17. Bavarian
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Who to Start?
    Shaw or Estupinan

    1. DannyD
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Estu

    2. Kitman
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      I’d do shaw

      Estupinan gets 4 points, shaw has the potential to better

  18. BlzE_94
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Not sure what to do with 2FT here?
    Bring in Pope + Mac? Or bring in another Newcastle attacker?

    Steele*
    TAA Trippier* Estupinan*
    Salah KDB Grealish Rashford Mitoma*
    Haaland Isak*

    Raya White Coufal Greenwood

    1. The 12th Man
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      I have virtually the same starting 11 as you.
      Pope + Mac has crossed my mind too.

      However I feel having 2 FTs going into 37 could be better. So Grealish or KDB > Joelinton for one week and roll the other FT.

      Still undecided myself though, depends on Steele news I suppose.

      1. BlzE_94
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        I just did Steele + Grealish -> Pope + Mac because I have a feeling Steele will be dropped and Grealish rested for CL.

        Pope*
        TAA Trippier* Estupinan*
        Salah KDB Rashford Mitoma* MacAllister*
        Haaland Isak*

        Raya White Coufal Greenwood

        1. The 12th Man
          • 12 Years
          2 years, 7 months ago

          Yeh good moves, I might end up doing that myself.
          Frees up a spot too for John Stones.

  19. Dollyems15
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Would you bring in Wilson or rashford this week, rashford would be for Barnes and Wilson would be for Watkins. Was keen to bring in both but would give me bench headache as who would I bench from mahrez, Salah, mitoma, willock, Kane and Haaland to accommodate both Wilson and rashford?

    1. Nate(U)dog(ie)
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Honestly Rashford hasn't been doing that great for a while now, if there wasn't a double I think I'd be tempted to move him on this week. 2g 3a in 10 games, it's fine but I'd certainly target a Newcastle doubler over him, certainly for this week at least

    2. Dollyems15
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Yeh was thinking that, just I am chasing in my mini league and the 2 above me have him and scared he goes and hauls this week. Might hold off and just bring him in for the double

      1. Nate(U)dog(ie)
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Wolves' away form is poor, and this being the first week since Christmas that ManUtd have a free midweek may make a difference to them to help them recharge (ETH has given them an extra day off too because of that) so that's fair, but even then I'm still thinking of benching him this week for Grealish. Besides if you have a benching headache then it means you have other players that you think can haul, so they could easily match or outscore him even if he returns

  20. tibollom
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Not sure what to do with my 2 FT (0.5 ITB) guys, im chasing 35pts in my money league.. We've got a fairly similar team, where do I differentiate?

    His team (* for diff players):

    Ederson* Steele*
    Estupinan* Mee* Pinnock* Tripp Shaw
    Rash Salah marti mito Grealish*
    Haaland Isak Toney*

    My team:
    Kepa Raya
    White Mings Veltman Tripp Shaw
    Rahs salah marti mito MAC
    Haaland Isak Jota

  21. Weak Become Heros
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    March is out for me. Who to bring in:

    A. Mitoma
    B. Odegaard
    C. Willick
    D. Other (up to 6.5 already own Mac)

    1. Bavarian
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      A

    2. Hairy Potter
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Tough, I like Willock for GW36, Mitoma for GW37 and Martinelli for GW38.

      Might depend on your team and FT plans, but Mitoma is probably the safest with the 2 doubles and high ownership.

  22. tibollom
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Kepa + Veltman to Pope + 4.2 defender with my 2FT?

    Kepa Raya
    White Mings Veltman Tripp Shaw
    Rahs salah marti mito MAC
    Haaland Isak Jota

  23. OptimusBlack
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    If u still have Martinelli would u
    A- Play him
    B- Sell for Mac Allistar /Joelington
    I think Trossard maybe start a head of Martinelli this GW

  24. Atimis
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Thoughts on Alvarez punt? Should he play in both DGW37 games?

    1. Nate(U)dog(ie)
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Wouldn't be confident of it with KDB fit now, him being out was really the only reason Alvarez got the minutes he did during the DGW (I know they both started v Leeds mind)

    2. Tinkermania
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      To answer your question. Yes he should.
      Will he play, nobody knows.

  25. abaalan
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Watkins to isak a no brainer?
    Otherwise fancy willock but don't really have a mid to sell (Salah, bruno, mitoma, Mac, grealish)

    1. OptimusBlack
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Isak

    2. JoJoRed
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      I have Isak
      I wouldn’t say it’s a no brainier to pick Isak over Wilson.

  26. JoJoRed
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Leading ML but faltering

    1 FT 3.1 bank
    Pope *
    Tripp * Est * Shaw Trent
    Rash Salah Mitoma *
    Haaland Isak (c) * Alvarez

    Steele * Grealish Guehl Andreas

    Help Please with 3 decisions
    1. Roll FT?
    2. Grealish v Alvarez?
    3. Captain H or Isak?

    Thank you

    1. FourLokoLeipzig
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Looks like you have it right on all counts. Alvarez should start, Grealish and Haaland might not. Would switch captain if we get a leak Isak isn’t starting, but not to H

  27. LC1
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Morning all,

    Hope everyones having a good week.

    Please see below team;

    Steele
    Trippier* Estu** TAA
    Mitoma** Rashford Salah Grealish
    Isak** Haaland Watkins

    2 FTs and 0.9 ITB.

    Thinking of doing Watkins and Grealish to Wilson and Mahrez?

    Sound like the right moves / any suggestions are appreciated!

    Thanks

    1. JoJoRed
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Seems sound, I don’t know what to do with Grealish?
      Have you options on bench?

      1. LC1
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        My bench is pretty good in all honesty (Martinelli, Shaw, Henry), but I'm certain Mahrez starts this weekend and Grealish doesn't.

  28. balint84
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    A) DDG + TAA + Mitoma
    B) Ederson + Shaw + Fernandes

    1. JoJoRed
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      B just

    2. Sandy Ravage
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      A

    3. Gunners in Haaland
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      A

  29. Botman and Robben
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    Are you getting Isak or Wilson?

  30. Sickboy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 16 Years
    2 years, 7 months ago

    How does Watkins & March to Ferguson & Fernandes sound?

    Ideally need a differential to MacAllister and I’d like Bruno in DGW37.

    Thanks in advance.

    1. JoJoRed
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Ferguson looked good when he came on. Might he continue to manage his minutes?
      I’d do it. I’d expect him to play 120 minutes anyway

    2. Nate(U)dog(ie)
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 7 months ago

      Lot of competition for Ferguson there, and he's only returning from injury so wouldn't be too confident on minutes. Welbeck, Undav and Enciso can all challenge him for that spot

      1. Sickboy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 16 Years
        2 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks both I’ll have a think!