Spot the Differential
19 May 2023 511 comments
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Gameweek 37 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is nearing, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Brighton and Hove Albion, Manchester United and Leeds United, who we think have the potential to finish the season strongly.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

EVAN FERGUSON

FPL Gameweek 37 differentials: Ferguson, Antony + Rodrigo 1
  • FPL ownership: 1.4%
  • Price: £4.6m
  • GW37-38 fixtures: SOU + MCI | avl

The fit-again Even Ferguson (£4.6m) could be an excellent punt in Double Gameweek 37, with his ownership currently sitting at just 1.4%.

That’s because he was benched for the midweek trip to St James’ Park, meaning his chances of a start against Championship-bound Southampton on Sunday have since gone up a notch.

The Irishman has scored four goals in 16 first-team Premier League appearances so far this season, although it’s worth noting he has come off the bench in eight of those matches. In that time, he’s averaging 3.14 shots and 0.82 big chances per 90 minutes.

Brighton go into their second consecutive Double Gameweek with home matches against Saints and a potentially rotated Manchester City side, who could rest key individuals if the title is already sewn up.

Ruben Selles’ troops, meanwhile, haven’t kept a clean sheet since Gameweek 27, conceding two or more goals in eight of their 10 games since. They have also struggled defending balls into the box all season, which bodes well for Ferguson, who is often the focal point of Brighton’s attack.

The Seagulls have been a bit up and down recently, but they guarantee goals, with 15 scored and 12 conceded in their last six matches. It suggests we might see another high-scoring affair at the Amex on Sunday, with Ferguson one of the best-placed options to capitalise if he starts.

ANTONY

  • FPL ownership: 3.7%
  • Price: £7.3m
  • GW37-38 fixtures: bou + CHE | FUL

Antony (£7.3m) has often been criticised during his debut season at Man Utd, having registered just six attacking returns in 23 Premier League appearances since his summer move from Ajax.

However, he has shown improvement of late, including the 2-0 win over Wolverhampton Wanderers in Gameweek 36.

The Brazilian was particularly lively in the first half at Old Trafford, providing the assist for Anthony Martial’s (£6.3m) opener, before he went close on several occasions, registering six shots.

In fact, in his last six matches, he sits third among all FPL midfielders for goal attempts, having been presented with three Opta-defined ‘big chances’. His decision-making and finishing ability are admittedly sometimes questionable, but his shot volume offers encouragement.

As for Man Utd, they certainly have the pick of the fixtures, as they sit top of our Season Ticker for the remainder of the season. They, of course, play twice in Double Gameweek 37 against Bournemouth, who are already safe, before hosting Chelsea who have been poor under Frank Lampard.

With doubts around Marcus Rashford’s (£7.2m) involvement, Antony could be the one to step up. That’s because all of the Brazilian’s returns since the last international break have come without the England man on the pitch.

RODRIGO

FPL Gameweek 37 differentials: Ferguson, Antony + Rodrigo 2
  • FPL ownership: 3.8%
  • Price: £6.3m
  • GW37-38 fixtures: whu | TOT

Leeds United have just two games left to escape relegation, with a trip to the London Stadium up first on Sunday.

The timing of the clash could potentially work in their favour, given that West Ham United were involved in a gruelling UEFA Europa Conference League semi-final in Holland on Thursday. The last time they faced such a tight turnaround, they were comfortably beaten 2-0 at Brentford, conceding 3.7 expected goals (xG).

Sam Allardyce found room for strikers Rodrigo (£6.3m) and Patrick Bamford (£7.1m) against Newcastle United last time out, as the Spaniard lined up on the right side of his 4-3-3 formation, where he looked dangerous when he got the chance to cut back onto his stronger foot.

The same might be in store against the Hammers, where Rodrigo could potentially be up against left-back Emerson (£4.0m), who was benched against AZ Alkmaar on Thursday. His defending wasn’t great last weekend when he came off second best against Bryan Mbeumo (£5.6m).

Across the season, it’s also worth noting Rodrigo is Leeds’ top scorer, with 12 goals from 21 starts. He has also posted team-leading totals for goal attempts, shots in the box and efforts on target.

With attacking returns in each of his two appearances under Allardyce, Rodrigo will now be looking to add to his tally against West Ham, and could be an effective differential for FPL managers on the lookout for a new midfielder.



511 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Lenred
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Martial, Antony or double Utd defence (DDG and Shaw instead of just one) to replace Rashford? Cheers!

    1. Lenred
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Have Bruno btw

    2. Cheers Geoff
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Double up with DDG and Shaw imo

      1. Lenred
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Cheers bud - good luck

  2. CoracAld2831
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Repost (with full team)

    Steele
    Trippier-Stones-Shaw
    MacA-Mitoma-Fernandes(v)-Salah-Rashford
    Alvarez-Haaland(c)

    Kepa-Isak-Botman-Henry

    1FT
    1,1m in bank

    Please choose a move below for bench boost purposes:

    A: Kepa -> Pickford
    B: Isak -> Wilson
    C: Henry -> Tarkowski
    D: Save FT, but use BB
    E: Save FT & BB
    F: Alternative, what?

    1. CoracAld2831
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      On D atm.

      1. Vinyl78LP
        • 16 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        You have 9 dgw players plus strong playing bench (inc Kepa dgw) - D for me. BB less effective I reckon in 38 if title/euro places/relegation issues are already settled and some players stood down.

        1. CoracAld2831
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 8 months ago

          RhThank you for the advice.

          And good luck for the DGW.

    2. Fellaini's Fro
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Would keep Kepa and Isak for BB

      1. CoracAld2831
        • 5 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        So C or D?

        Thank you btw.

        1. CoracAld2831
          • 5 Years
          2 years, 8 months ago

          And good luck for the double.

  3. Miami Monkey
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    1 FT, 0.4 itb. Ideas? Lindelof is blocking a Fernandes move. Don't really want Grealish or Jota. Jota to Alvarez?

    Steele / Kepa
    TAA / Shaw / Lindelof / Trippier / Botman
    Salah / Grealish / Rashford / Mitoma / MacAllister
    Haaland / Jota / Wilson

    1. Cheers Geoff
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Jota to Alvarez probably the best option

  4. Cheers Geoff
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Which 2 of these should I start?

    A) Mac Allister
    B) Enciso
    C) Konate
    D) Walker

    1. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      I’m envious of A and B. Envy is not a knightly virtue though.

  5. Sho-kun
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    A) Martinelli --> Rashy
    B) Martinelli --> Mahrez

    1. Cheers Geoff
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      B

    2. Victor6359
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      B

  6. Old Wulfrunian
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Is it worth to sell Rashford for Bruno or Grealish/Rashford to MacAllister?

    1. fantasist
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Probably Rashford to Bruno is best move.

  7. Doug McCasual
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    any keepers worth getting for a hit? current ones are kepa and raya..got the funds for anyone

    1. fantasist
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Not for a hit. I'd just play Kepa for double and hope for the best

      1. Doug McCasual
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        cheers, kepa nailed tho?

        1. Sun Jihai
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          2 years, 8 months ago

          No. DDG is the only one I'd go for, but still feel like Shaw is better of the two.

          1. WibblesTeam
            • 8 Years
            2 years, 8 months ago

            How about both? See my question below

  8. zensum
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Hi guys need advice pls:

    I am playing Mitoma and Mac Allister with Wilson (Vs Lei) as my first sub.
    Good to go? Or should I bench one of Brighton’s instead?

    If so, which one?

    Thank you and appreciate your help

    1. Cheers Geoff
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      I would bench Mitoma think he will only start one game. Wilson in form and Lei defence is shocking!

    2. fantasist
      • 15 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Definitely play Wilson.. one of the most in form players vs leaky Leicester.

  9. Woy_is_back
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Captain Mahrez or Alvarez?

    1. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      If I had to than A since more likely to play both matches? What do you think of my problem below?

      1. Woy_is_back
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        I have Haaland too of course but too boring, my season is k rap anyway. Another option is Shaw, think Man U can get two cs.

    2. Victor6359
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      M

    3. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Mahrez
      Alvarez stats quite poor recently, ranks 8th in mins per xGI in the last 6 GWs and 20% goal involvement when on the field

  10. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    A) Mitoma to Mahrez
    B) Isak to Alvarez

    1. Woy_is_back
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      B
      Isak might start on the bench imo

    2. LAMELA_AND_CONSUELA
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      A

    3. Victor6359
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      A

  11. WibblesTeam
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Similar question to LENRED above, but:

    A) Kepa > De Gea
    B) Ode > Rashford

    Rashy illness make him too risky to buy, so go for DDG instead? On fh38 so can get Rashy next week

  12. Woy_is_back
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Man U will probably win 1-0 twice. Wouldnt get any Man U attackers

  13. Inferno
    • 15 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Which duo gets more points this gw?

    A) Foden Isak
    B) Bruno Martial -4

    1. Woy_is_back
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      A

      1. Inferno
        • 15 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Cheers

  14. outernational
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Any changes you would make here?

    Steele
    Trippier | Gabriel | LINDELOF
    Salah | RASHFORD | MITOMA | BRUNO
    ENCISCO | Isak | HAALAND (C)

    Iversen | Saka | Botman | Mee

    1. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Saka over Isak?

      1. outernational
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        Do you think Isak will be benched?

        1. Sun Jihai
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          2 years, 8 months ago

          Not really, just don't really like his role with Wilson playing. Saka isn't exactly in great form either tbh!

          1. outernational
            • 11 Years
            2 years, 8 months ago

            Yeah, it's a tough one for sure!

  15. Norco
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Anyone here worth a -4 hit out for someone else or GTG? 0.1ITB

    Raya (Kepa)
    SHAW ESTU Trips (meh meh)
    Salah GROSS MITOMA BRUNO RASH
    HAALAND Wilson (Jota)

    1. outernational
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Nothing worth a -4

    2. outernational
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      If you think Mitoma is rested in the first game against Southampton, starting Jota could be an option, but it would be risky given Mitoma's ownership!

  16. Fabreghastly
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Who would you rather have for 1 game?

    A/ Rashy at Home to Chelsea
    B/ Jota at Home to Aston Villa or
    C/ Trippier at Home to Leicester

    1. Woy_is_back
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      B

    2. outernational
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      That's tough, but probably C

      1. SH
        • 11 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        This

    3. Kevin and Perry go
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Trips poorly so not him.

  17. Scots Gooner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    DDG
    TAA / Estupinan / Shaw
    Rashford / Salah / Grealish / Mitoma / Mac
    Haaland / Wilson

    Raya / Isak / Trippier / Gabriel

    1 FT / 1.0 ITB

    Tempted to gamble on Rashford/Grealish to Gundo/Mahrez for -4…

    Fairly pleased with my current rank, so willing to take a late punt.

    Thoughts?

    1. SH
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Over the next 3 games, Rashford is likely to play 2 at least. Can't say that for any City mids. How about Isak to Alvarez for a punt?

  18. SH
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Better pair on a FH?

    A. Mahrez, Konate
    B. Alvarez, Tripper

    1. Sterling Malory
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      B

  19. Ne0
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Who to get for March?
    a) Mac Allister
    b) Maherz
    c) Save FT (Trippier, Botman on the bench)

    1. Kevin and Perry go
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Connner Gallagher straight swap.

  20. SH
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    I wouldn't save.

    1. SH
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Reply to Neo

  21. Kevin and Perry go
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    DDG or Ederson?

    1. L S P
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      DDG

  22. Sterling Malory
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Sod it.

    Gundo and Alvarez in.

  23. Letsgo!
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Start steele or pope?
    Start Gabriel or willian?

    1. L S P
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Steele

      Willian - NFO will score

  24. Drogba Legend
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    130 points this past GW..big boost finally

    Ederson
    Shaw - TAA - Estu - Lindolof
    Salah - Rash - Grealish - March - Mitoma
    Haaland - Wilson

    Iversen - Solanke - Botman - March**

    A) March > MaCallister
    B) Grealish > Mahrez
    C) Rash > someone?
    D) Something else?

    1. L S P
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      B but could roll too

  25. Letsgo!
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Also will u do stones and rash to gundo and wanbissaka for 2 ft?

    1. L S P
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Think AWB starts one of two

  26. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Probably wise to hold Rashford even though might miss next game, its Fulham also gw38, right?

    1. L S P
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Yes. Worst case scenario is he plays 2 of 3 methinks.

  27. L S P
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Help please:

    Dalot/Willock to...

    A) Lindelof/Eze for -4
    B) Shaw/Olise or McNeil for -4
    C) Only Willock->Eze (hope that Dalot starts once)

    (BBing)

    1. Kevin and Perry go
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Play Dalot

    2. Victor6359
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      B: McNeil (something to play for)

  28. Philosopher's Stones
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    How do these moves look?

    Rashford + Jota -> Bruno + Alvarez (-4)

    1. Philosopher's Stones
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      *FH in 38

    2. The Knights Template
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Perfectly acceptable. Assume you already own Foden.

  29. DycheDycheBaby
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    Sell which player for Shaw?
    a) Mee
    b) Botman
    c) Trippier

    1. L S P
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      As a Botman owner, B

    2. Powers106
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      C

    3. The Mighty Hippo
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      B

    4. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      A, doubt you'll want to play a Brentford defender vs. City in GW38

      1. DycheDycheBaby
        • 10 Years
        2 years, 8 months ago

        True. But I think I will have to sell Trippier. As I don't have Salah and need some extra funds for him.

  30. Powers106
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 8 months ago

    DDG (Forster)
    TAA - Shaw - Coufal (Tarkowski - Bueno)
    Salah - Mac Allister - Bruno - Mahrez (odegaard)
    Wilson - Haaland - Enciso

    Should I start Odegaard over Enciso?
    Y/N

    Ps I think Coufal more upside than Tarkowsi but my bench pretty weak.

    Thanks!

    1. L S P
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 8 months ago

      Enciso