Our Fantasy Premier League (FPL) points projections for 2023/24 are now live for Premium Members of Fantasy Football Scout (not a member yet? Sign up here!)
If you’re torn between several early squad drafts, the Rate My Team (RMT) tool can help out by predicting how many points your own team will score over a series of upcoming Gameweeks. A breakdown of these player points can then be seen in our projections tables.
Of course, figures will be fine-tuned closer to the Gameweek 1 deadline as we learn more information.
Below, Premium Members can see the estimated highest-scoring players until Gameweek 8 but you can get the full picture here.
Our thanks to the brains behind the scenes, TopMarx and Chris Atkinson, for their work on this.
FPL GAMEWEEKS 1-8 FPL POINTS PROJECTIONS: GOALKEEPERS
For many FPL managers, it may still be too soon to safely mention Ederson‘s (£5.5m) name in these circles. Whilst Manchester City had the best underlying defensive stats, the Brazilian kept finding ways to avoid FPL points. He finished down in tenth place in his position with a final 121.
Until certain transfers are completed, the algorithm has had to predict that David Raya (£5.0m) remains Brentford’s first-choice stopper and that Dean Henderson (£4.5m) is Manchester United’s. Expect those to change, with there also being uncertainty over whether Jason Steele (£4.5m) keeps Brighton and Hove Albion’s jersey over new arrival Bart Verbruggen (£4.5m).
Jordan Pickford is a popular £4.5m option due to Everton’s promising early fixtures, although Nick Pope (£5.5m) sits higher in spite of Newcastle United’s nasty-looking start.
FPL GAMEWEEKS 1-8 FPL POINTS PROJECTIONS: DEFENDERS
ABOUT RATE MY TEAM (RMT) AND POINTS PROJECTIONS
WHAT IS RATE MY TEAM?
RMT is a tool designed to approximate how many FPL points your team will score over a series of Gameweeks. This takes into account captaincy, vice-captains and automatic substitution points.
WHAT ARE PROJECTIONS?
Projections come in two forms – Season Projections and Six-Gameweek Projections (SGP).
Season projections show algorithm-generated predictions for every FPL player. This includes goals, assists, clean sheets, minutes played, bonus points, yellow cards and, most importantly, FPL points.
SGP shows algorithm-generated predictions for every player’s FPL points in each of the next six Gameweeks, calculating their points per million value over this period. These numbers are the same numbers as the ones used in RMT.
HOW ARE THE VALUES FOR RATE MY TEAM AND PROJECTIONS CALCULATED?
The values are generated by an algorithm that uses both current and historical data. There is also constant human monitoring so that the model can respond quickly to news, injuries or tactical changes that otherwise the algorithm may underestimate.
We do this to generate the best values with as little bias as possible.
HOW DO I LOAD MY TEAM INTO RMT?
To load your team into RMT (after Gameweek 1 only), you need to type in your FPL ID. If you can’t find your FPL ID, instructions on how to find it are on the Rate My Team page.
Before Gameweek 1, head to the Build My Team page and enter your team manually via ‘Add Player’.
WHAT DO XM AND ADJP MEAN?
Placing the cursor over a player’s predicted FPL points in a Gameweek will show an xM and adjP score.
xM stands for expected minutes – It’s the number of minutes the algorithm is predicting a player to have. Note that this isn’t an exact Gameweek-specific prediction but rather an average number of minutes. Therefore, while a player might be expected to play 90 minutes, their xM will be lower since there’s a chance they might miss the game or get substituted.
adjP stands for adjusted points – It’s the projected points score if you know a player will take part in the match (i.e. his xM is not 0). It should be used for deciding who to captain and who to bench.
Both of these values combine to generate a final score.
WHY DOES RMT SAY TO START A PLAYER WITH A LOWER PREDICTED SCORE THAN A SECOND PLAYER?
Usually, this occurs because the algorithm predicts a player (eg/ goalkeeper) will either play the full game or nothing at all.
Player A – High adjP, very low xM – Low RMT score
Player B – Medium adjP, very high xM – Medium RMT score
Whilst Player A is unlikely to play, the most common scenario is either getting 90 minutes or none at all. Therefore, RMT thinks it’s worth starting him to make use of the high adjP if he plays, otherwise the safer option of Player B will autosub in.
Therefore it suggests picking Player A over B, despite the former appearing to score lower on RMT.
WHEN DO UPDATES HAPPEN?
While there’s no fixed update timetable, it is pretty much continuous.
Monday tends to have a big update after the weekend’s events. Thursday and Friday will have updates in the evenings following any news that emerges from pre-match press conferences.
CAN I SEE A FULL LIST OF ALL PLAYERS IN RMT?
You can find the complete list here. It can also be found by clicking the ‘Players’ option in the sub-menu under “Rate My Team” on the main Premium Members Area menu.
CAN I ORDER BY SCORES FOR ONE GAMEWEEK?
From the player list in RMT or projections, click on the Gameweek header to sort by that Gameweek’s predicted score.
HOW DO I CHANGE THE GAMEWEEKS I VIEW RMT OVER?
On top of the Rate My Team page, whilst your team is loaded, select “First Gameweek” or “Last Gameweek”. By default, the first Gameweek will be the next Gameweek and the last Gameweek will be in six Gameweeks’ time, but these can be manually altered to suit your research.
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