Our team of Hall of Famers and guest writers are writing about all things Fantasy Premier League (FPL) in 2023/24. Next up, The Wire co-host Pras talks us through the pros and cons of a Free Hit in Gameweek 18.
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The first proper Blank/Double Gameweek of 2023/24 will soon be upon us (sorry, Luton Town/Burnley fans), as Manchester City head to Saudi Arabia for the FIFA Club World Cup, thus missing their Gameweek 18 fixture versus Brentford.
First, an early caveat. The case for a Free Hit is entirely team-dependent. The success of a Free Hit, for me, always depends on the weeks around it and the path you take knowing that you don’t need to fixate on a particular round of matches where some players blank. Therefore, every FPL manager’s optimal path can/will be different. As such, so is the gain from the Free Hit chip.
My intention in this article is to simply provide food for thought. I’ll share some perspectives on (i) why the fixtures in and around Gameweek 18 make the Free Hit an appealing prospect, (ii) why the Crystal Palace-Brighton game in Gameweek 18 gives the Free Hitters an edge, (iii) considerations around suspensions for important players, (iv) whether the Free Hit will be useful later in the season, and much more.
So let’s get into it.
Fixtures around Gameweek 18
Using the excellent feature in the Fantasy Football Scout Premium Members Area, I have removed Gameweek 18 from the Season Ticker.
It is quite interesting to see that Arsenal (who many are doubled/tripled up on), Brentford, Man City and Liverpool (many are doubled up) are the four teams to “attack” the crucial Christmas period.
On the other hand, Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United are the bottom three on the ticker:
Looking then at the Gameweek 18 fixtures, it is quite the opposite picture:
Aston Villa (v Sheffield United), Spurs (v Everton) and Newcastle (v Luton) are all huge upside fixtures, and at the bottom Liverpool host Arsenal in an unpredictable game – I am not assuming a high-scoring one, either, given how solid Arsenal have been defensively away from home this season.
The opportunity from a fixtures point of view is quite clear. Move out of Erling Haaland (£14.0m), Bryan Mbeumo (£7.0m), two to three Arsenal players and maybe even Liverpool – although not necessarily Mohamed Salah (£13.0m). Load up on Spurs, Aston Villa, and Newcastle.
One can argue that people will hold the likes of Ollie Watkins (£8.5m), Son Heung-min (£9.7m) and Kieran Trippier (£7.0m) though the harder games anyway but that’s why I referred to the path you take.
Free Hitters are not shackled by holding them. They can make moves like Watkins to Darwin Nunez (£7.6m) or Alexander Isak (£7.4m), Son to Bukayo Saka (£8.7m) or Jarrod Bowen (£7.7m), Matty Cash (£5.1m) to a Newcastle/Man City defender, and Alphonse Areola (£4.3m) to Mark Flekken (£4.5m) without worrying about the Blank Gameweek.
In fact, if we look at the recent transfer activity, which is led by near-term fixtures, people are making their Gameweek 18 teams worse on paper by bringing in Arsenal defenders and Mbeumo, and selling Villa players etc. There’s nothing wrong with that but it does, on paper, strengthen the case to contemplate a Free Hit in Gameweek 18 more seriously.
Early deadline
As you see from the Gameweek 18 schedule, the Crystal Palace game against Brighton has been brought forward to Thursday night. While this is really nice for the non-FPL-playing football fans (another game during the holidays), it is very annoying for us Fantasy managers as the majority of the press conferences are still likely to happen on Friday, i.e. after the deadline.
At the moment, the best guess is that we only hear from the managers of Aston Villa, Sheffield United, Brighton and Crystal Palace.
So in a week when people will be rocking up with benches of Haaland, Mbeumo, a non-playing/rubbish striker and/or a fifth defender, they will go blind not even knowing if there are any surprise injuries they need to deal with.
Free Hitters, on the other hand, will be able to afford a very strong bench (from the Haaland money) and can hugely benefit from a no-show of a popular player.
Uncertainty around injuries/suspensions
We have seen a big surge in yellow cards this season. So many popular FPL picks have either served a ban or on the verge of one. This isn’t ideal at all when we are planning to have certain players show up in important weeks, like Gameweek 18.
Some names that FPL manager either have or plan to get could well end up disappointing us when we need them the most:
| 4 yellows | 3 yellows |
| Trippier, Cash, Luiz, Sterling, Ait Nouri, Kabore, Beyer | Taylor, Palmer, Lascelles, Baldock, Udogie, Hwang, Gibbs-White |
Gameweek 18 Free Hit Draft
Taking all the above into account, a very rough Free Hit draft (with the information we have today) looks something like this:
It’s too early to talk about individual picks. This is just to get an idea of the types of players and teams to target. I think there is a good chance there are 6-7 different players to the “template” non-Free Hit teams. My best guess on the key differences:
- Leno instead of Areola
- Trippier/Alexander-Arnold instead of Gabriel/Saliba
- Porro/Moreno instead of Taylor/Kabore/Cash
- Godon/Diaby/Gibbs-White instead of Palmer/Saka
- Isak/Nkunku instead of Archer
Whether those 6-7 players hit it out of the park that week is up to the FPL gods, of course.
Hold out for future?
I won’t spend a huge amount of time detailing out every blank/double permutation but generally speaking there should be a normal amount of doubles and blanks this year. As per usual, this is:
| GW26 | Blank due to Carabao Cup final |
| GW29 | Blank due to FA Cup quarter-finals |
| GW34 | Blank & Double Gameweek or normal Gameweek |
| GW37 | Double Gameweek for remaining rearrangements |
*Apart of above there are 2-3 smaller doubles for the rescheduled Gameweek 18 and Gameweek 26 games
What all this means is, there isn’t specifically another great week to Free Hit. It could be the big blank in Gameweek 29 but one could easy dead-end into it and Wildcard later.
Gameweek 34 has a free midweek. So depending on how many teams make it through to the FA Cup latter stages, it could anything from a normal Gameweek to one with doubles and blanks. This is the one week where in a worst-case scenario, you will wish you held the chip.
Hopefully, this gives you all the infomation you need to decide if a Free Hit in Gameweek 18 is worth it for your team. My advice for anyone considering it is to plan out transfers from now until Gameweek 18 and compare your squad with the ideal Free Hit team. A gap of 15+ points and you should seriously give it a thought.
That’s all from me – good luck for the crunch period!
