After his third consecutive double-digit return this season, backing against Erling Haaland (£15.2m) as captain in Gameweek 5 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is a daunting prospect.
However, a favourable home fixture for Arne Slot’s Liverpool could lead us into temptation.
Meanwhile, the Norwegian sharpshooter is set to face the Premier League’s meanest defence, Arsenal, on Super Sunday.
As usual, Captain Sensible highlights which assets have the best chance of hauling.
First, we will assess the fallout of the captain poll, before then analysing the best options, Rate My Team (RMT) and the Premier Fantasy Tools ratings ahead of Saturday’s 11:00 BST deadline.
THE CAPTAIN POLL
Despite a Gameweek 4 loss, Mohamed Salah (£12.7m) once again put his best foot forward. He produced match-leading totals for both shots on target (two) and penalty area touches (11).
The former Roma wing-wizard is backed by just under half of our users to rediscover his goal-scoring touch when Liverpool host Bournemouth on Saturday afternoon.
Meanwhile, superlatives simply don’t do Erling Haaland justice, with the Nordic sniper starting the season at breakneck speed.
It’s nine goals in just four matches for Haaland, with a trio of successive double-digit hauls highlighting the risk of backing against the Norwegian.
Moreover, no other player in the division could better him for efforts in the box (six) and shots on target (four) in Gameweek 4.
Our users are willing to dabble with risk engagement this week – Haaland is backed by around one in seven of the electorate.
Ollie Watkins (£8.9m) occupies third place with a mite over 10% of the vote. Cole Palmer (£10.6m) with Jarrod Bowen (£7.5m) are further back.
THE PLAYER STATISTICS – FIRST FOUR GAMEWEEKS
Top for shots in the box (18) and attempts on target over the first four Gameweeks, Haaland’s statistical appeal is obvious. He’s also best for non-penalty xG, with a healthy tally of 3.61.
When it comes to big chances received, his division-topping eight gilt-edged chances are equalled by Ollie Watkins. The Aston Villa marksman, however, has lacked accuracy, missing six high-quality chances across the opening four matches.
The former Brentford striker’s tally of 2.64 non-penalty xG trails only City’s Norwegian.
Meanwhile, Liverpool’s Salah continues to promise multiple routes to points. The right-winger is the key creator in this assessment – supplying four big chances and an expected assist tally of 1.68.
Salah’s 13 shots and five big chances both rank third-best here, with the Egyptian rising to second place for shots on target (eight).
Furthermore, only Haaland betters Salah’s non-penalty involvement tally of 3.09.
Elsewhere, Chelsea’s Cole Palmer has supplied the most key passes (12), with his tally of four big chances created level with Salah.
In terms of goal threat, Palmer has been limited to shots from range. Of his nine goal attempts, just two of them have come from inside the box, with tally registering the second-worst non-penalty xG tally (0.88) in this sample.
Among the Spurs contingent, both Son Heung-min (£10.0m) and Dominic Solanke (£7.5m) have posted underwhelming numbers. The ex-Bournemouth man at least has the excuse of fewer minutes after a brief injury.
Finally, Eberechi Eze (£6.9m) equals Haaland for shots (19). The England international boasts the highest combined total of shots and key passes (27) in this assessment.
The penalty-sharing arrangement at Palace, however, significantly dents Eze’s appeal.
TEAM ATTACKING STATISTICS – FIRST FOUR GAMEWEEKS
Above: team-by-team breakdown for non-penalty xG over the first four matches
From the main sides under consideration, Salah’s Liverpool are top for shots in the box (49) and big chances (17) over the first four.
Man City, meanwhile, have got their noses in front for expected goals. Guardiola’s men lead Liverpool for non-penalty xG, by 7.61 to 7.54 according to our partner Statsbomb.
Furthermore, the Citizens lead the way for both goals scored (11) and shots on target (25) over the opening four rounds.
Elsewhere, Aston Villa sit second for big chances (16) with Watkins’ side placing in the top four for goals (seven).
Compared to Spurs, Postecoglou’s men hold the advantage over the West Midlands outfit for goal attempts (63 to 53), and efforts on target (24 to 18). Villa, however, edge in front when we look at Statbomb’s non-penalty xG, with a tally of 6.43 bettering Spurs’ 5.96.
Palmer’s Chelsea, meanwhile, have made up for their lack of shot volumes through unerring accuracy. Maresca’s side place in the bottom six for attempts in the box (30) but their total of 21 shots on target is bettered by just four other sides so far.
Finally, only Ipswich Town (three) have generated fewer big chances than Eze’s Palace (seven) this season. Notably, Glasner’s side sits in the bottom eight for both goals scored (four) and attempts on target (15) this season.
TEAM DEFENDING STATISTICS – FIRST FOUR GAMEWEEKS
Above: team-level breakdown for non-penalty xG Conceded across the first four matches, from our partners Statsbomb
West Ham United’s defensive numbers look highly encouraging for Cole Palmer’s prospects.
The Hammers place bottom for both efforts in the box conceded (54), conceding a chance every 5.4 minutes – the quickest rate in the division.
Furthermore, Lopetegui’s side rank second-worst for non-penalty xG conceded (7.87), according to Statsbomb.
By comparison, Bournemouth have been significantly more resilient ahead of their trip to Anfield. Iraola’s rearguard is without a clean sheet in this Premier League campaign despite some decent underlying data.
The Cherries place midtable for shots in the box conceded (39) and goals allowed (five) this term. Their tally of 5.83 non-penalty xG conceded is marginally above the league average (5.20).
Elsewhere, Spurs’ visitors Brentford sit sixth worst for non-penalty xG conceded (6.27). The Bees rank second bottom for open play goal attempts allowed (50) – but they have faced Liverpool and Man City.
Watkins’ Villa host Wolves, with Gary O’Neil’s side winless in four. Again, their tough fixture run is a mitigating factor. Only Everton (13) have allowed more than their 11 goals this term, with only two sides shipping more than their tally of 43 shots in the box over the first four.
Eze’s opponents, Man United, are midtable for big chances conceded (10), efforts in the box allowed (32) and non-penalty xG conceded (4.46).
Finally, Arteta’s Arsenal sit above average for non-penalty xG conceded (4.49) despite a mixed opening fixture run.
Three clean sheets and one goal conceded for the Gunners is joint-best with Liverpool, with only Man City (four) bettering their tally of six big chances allowed.
RATE MY TEAM
Above: RMT’s leading captaincy selections for Gameweek 5
Salah tops the RMT ratings in Gameweek 5. Liverpool’s Egyptian is forecast to score 7.45 points against Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth side.
In joint-second place is Palmer and Son with 5.9 points apiece.
PREMIER FANTASY TOOLS
Above: Leading captaincy candidates for Gameweek 5 according to Premier Fantasy Tools
Our friends at Premier Fantasy Tools offer a complete range of captaincy tools on their website, one of which is the Captain Picker.
They side with Salah this week, with Palmer second and Son Heung-min third from the key names we’ve mentioned here.
You can also use Premier Fantasy Tools’ Captain Analyser to assess your armband picks for the season – and see where they went right and wrong.
IN CONCLUSION
Above: FPL Gameweek 5 projected goals and clean sheet odds from @robtfpl on Twitter
Most roads this Gameweek seemingly point to Mohamed Salah.
His dominance of the poll and RMT standings could barely be more convincing. Liverpool’s team numbers and market odds also make a compelling case for the Egyptian’s armband credentials.
The player numbers, however, are very much in favour of Erling Haaland. His shot volumes, underlying numbers and actual output have been freakish this season.
His midweek UEFA Champions League blank against Inter Milan delivered a timely reminder of his humanity.
Man City have proven themselves somewhat Haaland-reliant. Defensively, Arsenal are as robust an opponent as Guardiola will face in the Premier League this season.
Impressively, Arsenal have recorded nine clean sheets in their last ten away Premier League matches – including a scoreless draw in their last trip to the Etihad Stadium.
All things considered; Salah is my number one pick this week ahead of City’s Norwegian, with fixture strength the deciding factor.
Completing the top three is Cole Palmer. England’s midfield starlet combines solid production rates with a plum fixture against West Ham United, who have been in the doldrums defensively.
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