Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his usual weekly FPL Q&A ahead of Gameweek 6.
The topics include whether Ollie Watkins (£9.0m) is worth the extra money over mid-priced forwards, using Luis Diaz (£7.9m) to cover Mohamed Salah (£12.8m), the risk of Rico Lewis (£4.7m) and if Wildcard users should pre-book future transfers.
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Q: With Rodri (£6.4m) out for a while, is Rico Lewis worth a punt on the Wildcard?
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A: There is a very limited sample size for when Manchester City are without Rodri, as the Spanish international has been such a mainstay in Pep Guardiola’s lineups. Going by the first few weeks of this season, Mateo Kovacic (£5.5m) saw more minutes and Lewis has also inverted into midfield from his full-back position.
The Croatian was great when he featured but isn’t the player in midfield versus teams like Wolverhampton Wanderers who are likely to operate in a deep block.
Against the ‘easier’ teams, I expect Lewis to start – especially with how poor Kyle Walker (£5.3m) looked against Arsenal. Yet there’s always the risk of rotation with Guardiola’s backline so a good defensive alternative is important.
For example, Brentford’s cheap defenders rotate well with an Ipswich Town or Nottingham Forest one. It’s similar for Ipswich and Everton. Get one of these and I think Lewis is worth the upside, as he’s capable of returns at both ends.
Q: Would you include Ollie Watkins on a Wildcard, or opt for cheaper forwards like Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£6.0m), Chris Wood (£6.1m) and Jamie Vardy (£5.7m) to distribute funds into midfield?
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A: This is a question I’m wrestling with too. I think with the Joao Pedro (£5.6m) injury and our general distrust in Danny Welbeck’s (£5.8m) fitness, there are only two budget forwards you can invest in at the moment: Wood and Calvert-Lewin. The underlying numbers have been poor for Vardy.
Whilst Everton’s attacking numbers have also been low, they’re now getting a lot of their first-choice personnel back and – combined with the news of a takeover – I think the club is set for a bit of a revival. However, I do have concerns about Calvert-Lewin’s fitness and finishing qualities.
I think I’d be comfortable with one budget forward, preferring Calvert-Lewin because of his fixtures. It’s close though – Forest are riding a wave and Taiwo Awoniyi (£5.7m) doesn’t look close to usurping Wood.
Looking at other forwards, I think Watkins is a step above both Nicolas Jackson (£7.7m) and Dominic Solanke (£7.5m). He has been afforded the same 10 big chances as Erling Haaland (£15.3m), with the immediate Ipswich fixture having haul potential.
It’s a lot of money though. Haaland and Watkins alone take up close to 25% of your budget and I do have some concerns about how Aston Villa will be able to cope with midweek Champions League games. In order, I’d rank them Watkins, Solanke, then Jackson.
Q: Do we need to start taking Jackson seriously with all these early returns?
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A: The Chelsea man is actually a decent centre-forward in terms of what he does for the team and the runs he makes. His link-up was even good under Mauricio Pochettino, it’s just the final decision-making that was letting him down. So far, he’s improved that significantly and time will tell whether his electric start is either a purple patch or a player simply improving in his second Premier League campaign.
The Blues rank second for goals scored but have significantly overperformed their expected goals (xG). It feels like their attack is clicking and creating chances, so Jackson will always get the service.
The question comes back to game time and I think the fact that Christopher Nkunku (£6.1m) was benched despite coming on to score the winner against Bournemouth says a lot about Enzo Maresca’s pecking order up front.
It is Jackson’s spot to lose but – as we saw against West Ham – even when chasing a hat-trick he was replaced near the 60th minute. Maresca even mentioned after the midweek EFL Cup game that players like Nkunku deserve to start.
This puts me off Jackson a bit but not enough to overlook him completely. Getting on an in-form player is part and parcel of FPL and I think yes, we should take him seriously.
Q: On a Wildcard with two free transfers to carry over, is it wise to book in future moves?
I want to begin with Jackson and Antoine Semenyo (£5.6m), then move to Solanke and Emile Smith Rowe (£5.8m) by Gameweek 8. Targeting fixtures for Mohamed Salah and Joao Pedro went badly during Gameweeks 4 and 5.
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A: Normally, without any transfers being rolled, I’d say book no more than one of them over the next two weeks. For instance, I have seen teams with Jackson and Luis Diaz intending to sell both after Gameweek 7. That seems a bit risky without the additional transfers in the bank – something else always comes up and then suddenly you’re left behind the curve, needing to take a hit.
Although with two of them, you can afford that luxury. I also reckon Jackson will outscore Solanke by four points over these two Gameweeks.
Q: Can Diaz cover Salah for nearly £5m less?
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A: As mentioned in previous articles, you cannot ‘cover’ an elite FPL asset like Salah or Cole Palmer (£10.6m). They have too many additional routes to points like set-pieces, penalties and – at least in Salah’s case – game time guarantee. Therefore over four matches, assuming Diaz gets 70 minutes, we are talking about 280 for him and 380 for Salah (including stoppage time).
Instead, what we are asking is whether Diaz is a good FPL asset that is worth £7.9m?
Based on last season, probably not. But this is a new manager and players often use such change as an opportunity to step up their game and establish themselves.
I think that’s what’s happening under Arne Slot, as Diaz has been given a lot more license to cut inside and shoot, suiting his natural game.
However, this is a small sample size and we know that Cody Gakpo (£7.2m) is looming. Once Diaz has a couple of blanks, we’ll likely see the Dutch international come in on the left wing. For now, I think it’s a punt worth taking. Should it not work – he’s a simple sale towards the many good options at that price point.
We discuss these questions and more in a two-hour episode of the FPL Wire. You can check it out here:
