After his sixth double-digit haul in nine Premier League matches this term, Mohamed Salah (£12.7m) has shattered any notion of Nordic ‘perma-captaincy’ and looks like a prime armband candidate for Gameweek 10 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL).
But despite four consecutive blanks, Erling Haaland (£15.4m) also boasts a favourable fixture at Bournemouth. We examine the respective credentials of Fantasy’s two heavyweights and a collection of able alternatives from Arsenal, Brentford, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur.
First, we will assess the fallout of the on-site captain poll. We will then analyse the player and team statistics, Rate My Team (RMT) and the Premier Fantasy Tools ratings ahead of Saturday’s 11:00 GMT deadline.
THE GAMEWEEK 10 CAPTAIN POLL
Mohamed Salah has been a model of consistency for the Reds in what looks like his swansong season. His 11 attacking returns rank second-best after nine matches.
Salah’s three goal attempts and two shots on target were both match-leading totals in the draw with Arsenal. Liverpool’s right winger is backed by exactly 35% of our users to put Brighton and Hove Albion to the sword.
Meanwhile, Erling Haaland (£15.4m) earned Man City a surprisingly narrow victory over Southampton. City’s frontman notched a solitary goal.
A litany of missed big chances denied the Norwegian more returns and success for the 300k+ managers that backed him with the Triple Captain chip. Much to the chagrin of backers, Haaland’s eight shots in the box, four big chances and 2.33 expected goals (xG) all ranked as the highest weekly tallies of the 2024/25 season.
A trickier away assignment against Adoni Iraola’s Bournemouth side hasn’t dented Haaland’s armband appeal amongst our users – he overtook Salah on Friday and is now favoured by over 36.4% of voters.
Bukayo Saka (£10.0m) occupies third place with almost 7.5% of the vote, with Cole Palmer (£11.0m) and Bryan Mbeumo (£7.7m) further back.
THE PLAYER STATISTICS – LAST SIX MATCHES
In terms of non-penalty xG over their respective last six matches, Haaland is the stand-out candidate. His tally of 5.06 betters the second-placed Dominic Solanke (£7.7m), who is on 3.26.
Looking solely at goal threat, Haaland is top for goal attempts (29) and efforts in the box (27). Both these totals better Bukayo Saka, with Arsenal’s talisman posting 21 and 16, respectively.
In terms of big chances received we have a three-way tie between Haaland, Solanke and Palmer (seven apiece).
Arsenal’s Saka is the stand-out creative player in this assessment. Saka’s 11 big chances created and 20 key passes are both comfortably top, while his expected assists (xA) tally of 2.70 easily holds off second-placed Mbeumo, with 1.50.
Meanwhile, Liverpool’s Salah combines goal threat with elite-level creativity, registering double digits for key passes and shots on target, with 12 and 11, respectively.
Elsewhere, Mbeumo sits fourth for minutes per expected goal involvement (123.9) behind the power trio of Palmer (100.2), Haaland (101.5) and Saka’s 105.5.
TEAM ATTACKING STATISTICS – LAST SIX MATCHES
Son Heung-min‘s (£9.9m) Spurs produce a strong showing at the team data table ahead of Aston Villa’s visit. Ange Postecoglou’s side sits top for shots in the box (83) and non-penalty xG (12.83) over the last six. The North Londoners also scoop silver for big chances (21), total attempts (108) and goals (12) – all numbers which bode well for a Solanke hold.
Slot’s Liverpool, meanwhile, place midtable for non-penalty xG (8.10). They have mediocre tallies for big chances (17) and attempts in the box (52), too.
Guardiola’s Man City, however, sit at the summit for goal attempts (131) and shots on target (45). They are also second for efforts in the box (72) and non-penalty xG (11.40).
A lack of clear-cut chances is a narrative the Citizens are struggling to shake off, with only five sides generating fewer gilt-edged chances than the champions (13).
Comparing Saka’s Arsenal with Palmer’s Chelsea, their attacking underlying numbers are strikingly similar. Arsenal hold the advantage for big chances (22 to 20) and shots on target (33 to 31), while Maresca’s side takes the win for non-penalty xG (11.40 to 10.45).
Finally, Thomas Frank’s Brentford sit top for goals (13) over the last six. The Bees lie in the top three for big chances (21) and shots on target (37), slipping to a very respectable fifth for non-penalty xG (9.76).
TEAM DEFENDING STATISTICS – LAST SIX MATCHES
Liverpool host Fabian Hurzeler’s attacking young Brighton side, who place seventh worst for non-penalty xG conceded (9.08) over the last half-dozen.
Nevertheless, they have otherwise demonstrated decent defensive underlying numbers. The 48 open play goal attempts conceded by the Seagulls is the sixth fewest in this assessment. Their two clean sheets are bettered by just Man United (three).
Haaland’s hosts Bournemouth, meanwhile, sit in the top seven for non-penalty xG conceded (6.71) and attempts in the box allowed (47) over the last six.
Palmer’s hosts Manchester United received that all-important new manager bounce, trashing an understrength Leicester City side 5-2 in the EFL Cup under the interim stewardship of Ruud van Nistelrooy.
United are a team of contradictions. Sixth worst for non-penalty xG conceded (9.51) yet top for clean sheets (three) over the last six matches. Only Liverpool and Nottingham Forest (both five) have shipped fewer goals than Man United (six). Yet, their tally of 20 big chances conceded sits joint third worst in this assessment.
Saka’s hosts Newcastle United sit midtable for non-penalty xG conceded (7.84).
Finally, Aston Villa could prove a tough nut to crack for Ange Postecoglou’s misfiring Spurs side. Unai Emery’s defence place best here for non-penalty xG conceded (4.45). The West Midlands outfit sit in the top three for big chances conceded (nine) and shots in the box allowed (40).
RATE MY TEAM
Above: RMT’s leading captaincy selections for Gameweek 10
Salah tops the RMT ratings in Gameweek 10, with Liverpool’s winger forecast to score 7.57 points against Brighton and Hove Albion.
In second place is Haaland’s 6.82 points, followed by Palmer and his 5.70.
PREMIER FANTASY TOOLS
Above: Leading captaincy candidates for Gameweek 10 according to Premier Fantasy Tools
Our friends at Premier Fantasy Tools offer a complete range of captaincy tools on their website, one of which is the Captain Picker.
They side with Salah this week, with Haaland second and Palmer third from the key names we’ve mentioned here.
You can also use Premier Fantasy Tools’ Captain Analyser to assess your armband picks for the season – and see where they went right and wrong.
IN CONCLUSION
Above: FPL Gameweek 10 projected goals and clean sheet odds from @robtfpl on X
For the captaincy debate, this feels like a pivotal Gameweek. The performances of Salah this season serve as a reminder that big-ticket differentials do exist. Erling Haaland, meanwhile, is also human and a blip for the Norwegian still means strong underlying numbers with a sprinkling of negative variance – but it also means there’s room in the game for the ballsy to back against.
Salah has long been the king and recent performances serve as a stark reminder that the Egyptian shouldn’t be overlooked. But what about Brighton? I’m a huge fan of the team that Fabian Hurzeler is building but – just like the market data – I don’t expect the Seagulls to take a backward step. They’ll go toe-to-toe at Anfield and that suits Salah.
Haaland’s trickier assessment away to Bournemouth consigns the Norwegian to second place this week – like our RMT data, Salah comfortably takes the top spot for me.
Completing the top three is Cole Palmer, with the Chelsea talisman in a fantastic moment. Palmer’s underlying numbers keep step with the division’s best but an away to trip to a potentially buoyant Man United reasonably dents his appeal in this edition.
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