This latest Tales of the Expected article explores the expected goals (xG) data from the last six matches.
We will assess each team from an attacking and defensive perspective.
We’ll also look at the leading players for expected goal involvement (xGI).
TEAMS
OPTA EXPECTED GOALS (xG) – LAST SIX MATCHES
After winning just one of their first 13 league games this season, Oliver Glasner has turned Crystal Palace’s form around.
From an attacking perspective, they amassed 4.31 xG against Aston Villa on Tuesday, the club’s highest-ever figure in a Premier League home match.
Of the 12 goals scored in our sample period, three have come directly from corners, courtesy of Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.4m) twice and Ismaila Sarr (£5.5m).
And over the season, no side has scored more goals from set plays than Palace (Villa also have 13), so this is a seriously underrated attack that is capable of hurting opponents in many different ways.
Since losing 7-0 to Nottingham Forest in Gameweek 24, Fabian Hurzeler’s Brighton and Hove Albion have been superb, winning each of their last three matches, generating more than 2.0 xG on two occasions (Bournemouth and Southampton).
In contrast, creativity needs to improve at Arsenal, as the Gunners have averaged chances worth just 1.15 xG per game across the last six matches.
Lacking any kind of fluidity in possession, it perhaps shouldn’t come as any great surprise, with Bukayo Saka (10.2m), Gabriel Martinelli (£6.6m), Kai Havertz (£7.8m) and Gabriel Jesus (£6.5m) all currently out injured.
Ruud van Nistelrooy’s Leicester City sit at the bottom of the xG table, having lost four straight matches by an aggregate score of 0-12.
It doesn’t get any easier, either – their next six games are trips to Chelsea, Manchester City and Brighton, with home matches against Manchester United, Newcastle United and Liverpool.
OPTA EXPECTED GOALS CONCEDED (xGC) – LAST SIX MATCHES
