Spot the Differential
19 April 2025 618 comments
Skonto Rigga Skonto Rigga
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Gameweek 33 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us but there’s still time to pick out three more differentials.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Manchester City, Aston Villa and Fulham, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

To qualify, the player should have an ownership of 5% or less.

We’ve slightly bent the rules this time on Kevin De Bruyne (£9.3m), who was owned by under 4% of managers when we earmarked out differentials earlier this week but who has attracted nearly 400,000 transfers in since.

KEVIN DE BRUYNE

­­­FPL Gameweek 15 differentials: De Bruyne, Paqueta + Enzo 3

  • FPL ownership: 8.3%
  • Price: £9.3m
  • GW33-35 fixtures: eve + AVL | – | WOL

Given that he’s not in the Scout Picks, it felt remiss not to cover De Bruyne in some capacity this week.

Be it sentimentality or just desperation to tap into the City attack ahead of their Double Gameweek 33, the veteran Belgian is back in vogue.

The third-most-bought midfielder of the upcoming Gameweek, he’s more than doubled his ownership in the process.

De Bruyne was sublime in Gameweek 32, securing a 12-point haul in Manchester City’s 5-2 win over Crystal Palace.

He topped both the shot and key pass tables in that match, too:

Speaking after his starring role, the City stalwart said he was pain-free for the first time in a long time.

“It’s been a hard year. You know, having a hernia wasn’t fun but I think now I would say I’m basically pain-free for the last six weeks and that’s a massive difference playing with pain or no pain. It was hard but now I feel free, I’m able to do a lot of training sessions and I feel I can do a good job.” – Kevin De Bruyne

Currently, he’s operating in a roaming ‘false nine’ capacity – possibly to limit the amount of hard yards he has to put in, something he would be doing in a more orthodox central midfield role. The two wingers on either side of him are playing narrower and running beyond him:

There are two schools of thought.

One, that Guardiola is going to get as much out of De Bruyne as he can before the Belgian departs in the summer and give him a fitting, prominent farewell.

Or, the 33-year-old playmaker is just another pawn on Guardiola’s moving chessboard. The slippery City boss could go back to ‘wide wingers’ and an orthodox striker at the drop of a hat and/or merely manage his veteran midfielder’s minutes.

We can’t even guarantee two starts in Gameweek 33 (a start and a substitute appearance would be our best guess) but that may well be the case for most City attackers and indeed a lot of the Villa and Arsenal midfielders.

At least we know that when De Bruyne gets on the grass, he’s capable of the special.

YOURI TIELEMANS

­­­FPL Gameweek 6 differentials: Tavernier, Savinho + Tielemans 1
  • FPL ownership: 1.3%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW33-35 fixtures: NEW + mci | – | FUL

The ‘undroppable’ status of Morgan Rogers (£5.7m) has been widely discussed in recent weeks but there is another Aston Villa midfielder who has logged even more minutes than the England international in 2024/25.

Youri Tielemans (£5.5m) is the only Villan to start all 32 league matches for his club, completing 90 minutes on 25 of those occasions.

Unai Emery discussed both players’ durability last weekend.

“Some players are showing us their consistency, playing minutes and recovering. It is not easy to play at the level we demand in matches in a row without being injured.

“Youri and Morgan, they are being very important and consistent. I am always analysing if we can take some minutes to rest them, but until now they are being consistent and playing the demands we need.” – Unai Emery

Minutes aside, Tielemans is not the most glamorous of picks. He’s never managed more than 10 attacking returns in a single season, and is currently on eight for 2024/25.

Two of those have arrived in the last two Gameweeks, at least.

Tielemans’ recent underlying numbers haven’t been bad, either. Over the last six Gameweeks, he’s Villa’s leading chance creator (CC, below) and joint-second for shots (Tot, below):

differentials Gameweek 33

With Gameweek 33 opponents Newcastle United and Manchester City possessing two of the higher, more aggressive defensive lines in the division, Tielemans could find ample space in behind for his superb through-balls from central midfield.

differentials Gameweek 33

The Belgian is also on a share of set plays.

RYAN SESSEGNON

  • FPL ownership: 0.6%
  • Price: £4.1m
  • GW33-35 fixtures: CHE | sou | avl

Ryan Sessegnon (£4.1m) might be a pick that some FPL managers will want to hold fire on, with the really good stuff – Southampton (a) – not until next weekend. He could enter the Gameweek 34 Free Hit conversation in particular.

If you’re going early on the budget Fantasy defender, Chelsea aren’t exactly formidable foes right now. After nearly losing to Championship-bound Ipswich Town, the Blues fell to a 2-1 loss at home to Legia Warsaw on Thursday.

Enzo Maresca’s side are also winless in their last eight Premier League matches on the road.

differentials Gameweek 33

Above: Chelsea are bottom of the eight-match away form table

The Cottagers even turned over their neighbours at Stamford Bridge in December, winning 2-1.

Why Sessegnon? If you’ve not watched Fulham in the last few weeks, you may have missed the former Tottenham Hotspur defender playing ‘out of position’ on the right wing.

differentials Gameweek 33

After successive returns off the bench in Gameweeks 29 and 30, Sessegnon was rewarded with a start in the last home match against Liverpool and turned in a superb showing, scoring for the third time in five matches.

He unsurprisingly kept his place on Monday at Bournemouth. Don’t be spooked by his early withdrawal: that turned out to be a touchline admin error, something that sent Marco Silva apoplectic.

Those two starts have brought six shots in the box, a Fulham high over that period:

differentials Gameweek 33

Sessegnon has also had more than twice as many penalty area touches (16) as any teammate in the last two Gameweeks.

There’s obvious risk involved with Fulham well stocked with wingers but Sessegnon seems to hold the upper hand for now.



618 Comments Login to Post a Comment
  1. Ruinenlust
    • 7 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Will Dias start both games?

  2. Van der Faart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Start Isak or Murphy? No room for both

    1. FantasyClub
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Murphy

    2. Boz
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Isak

    3. thom830g
      • 8 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Isak

    4. Jam0sh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Isak

  3. pakornk
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Drop Murphy or Isak?

    1. Van der Faart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Same dilemma. With Murphys form it's hard to take him out but Isak has the ability to explode too

    2. FantasyClub
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Isak

  4. Garfield1001
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Would you rather keep Milenkovic OR Livramento on BB (and for rest of season)?

    Thanks!

    1. Gizzachance
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Milenkovic

    2. FantasyClub
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Milenkovic

    3. Bagpuss
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Milo

    4. Jam0sh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Mil

  5. Gizzachance
    • 11 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Livra to kiwior over saliba and save over 1.5 mill?

    1. thom830g
      • 8 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Yes

  6. Gizzachance
    • 11 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Bench one!
    A Isak
    B savinho
    C sarr
    D mateta

  7. AzzaroMax99
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    G2G?

    Raya*
    Munoz* Milenkovic Trippier
    Salah Saka* Sarr* Bowen
    Marmoush* Isak Mateta*

    Areola Murphy Kerkez AitNouri

    1. Salalalalah
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      gtg

  8. niaz1982
    • 6 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Saka or marmoush captain??

    1. Salalalalah
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Marmoush

    2. FantasyClub
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Marmoush

    3. Milk, 1 Šuker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Neither. Saka mins risk and Marmoush you're only getting Villa as he hasn't scored away in the league. Tight game expected at Goodison

      1. Reddonkeyham 42
        • 11 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Who you captaining?

    4. Boz
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      I'm going Marm

  9. darlo1883
    • 14 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Bench boost this week??
    And who to captain...tempted to go Salah....

    Raya Martinez
    Gvardiol Munoz Saliba Burn Kerkez
    Salah Murphy Saka Sarr Rogers
    Isak Mateta Marmoush

    1. Torres76
      • 15 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Swap Isak for Watkins?

  10. Salalalalah
    • 7 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Would you go
    a) Foden > Rogers/Rashford
    b) Foden, Murphy, Trippier > KdB, Rogers, N.Williams (-4)
    c) Foden, Trippier > Rogers/Rashford, Ruben Dias

    1. Salalalalah
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      anyone?

    2. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      B

    3. Goro Majima
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      C

  11. FantasyClub
    • 4 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Lads I need more than 1 response pleaseeeeeeeeeww

    BB?

    Sels Isak Milenkovic White

    1. Salalalalah
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      GW36 an option for you?

      1. FantasyClub
        • 4 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Well I have AM & FH left also…getting tight!

        Raya/Sels
        White/Munoz/Gvard/Brad//Milenkovic
        Salah/EZE/Barnes/Murphy/KDB
        Mateta/Marmoush/Isak

    2. Snoopydog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Wait?

      1. FantasyClub
        • 4 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        See my response to Salalalah

      2. FantasyClub
        • 4 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Please

    3. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 16 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      If not now then when?

      1. FantasyClub
        • 4 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Yeah that’s the issue eh running out

  12. JBG
    • 7 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    On FH, Saka or Salah?

    1. Jam0sh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      I would just include both there

      1. JBG
        • 7 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Want KDB as well though

  13. thom830g
    • 8 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    A) Timber + Murphy -> Kiwior + Rogers
    B) Burn + Murphy -> B Johnson + Rogers
    C) Savinho + Burn -> Rogers + 5 m def

    Worried about Timber minutes

  14. BusbySwede
    • 8 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Chasing ML-leader by 20 points and have almost exactly same team so feel that i need to go off template a bit..
    Completely wrong to sell Mateta that have been poor, playing less then 60min latest games and lost penalties also and bring in Wissa instead? If I do that i could also do Murphy to someone like Bowen for free.
    Or is it better to keep Mateta and just do Murphy to Rashford, have Rogers already.

    1. Milk, 1 Šuker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Wissa would be the move for me - if I was getting rid of Mateta

  15. AzzaroMax99
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Saka or Marmoush for C?

    1. Wolfman180
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Got it on Saka atm but I am nervous about it.
      Im just thinking if he does get minutes, he outscores Marmoush

  16. EWH2020
    • 11 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Taking a big punt here.

    Captain one

    A) Merino
    B) Trossard

    1. The Bandit
      • 15 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Depends on which (dgw player?) would be starting instead.

      1. The Bandit
        • 15 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Sorry, reply fail

  17. CoracAld2831
    • 4 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Glasner owners, what's the consensus?

    Keep or change to Arteta, Pep or Emery?

  18. Vpan
    • 15 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    So, is a bench of

    Areola-Isak-Burn-Konate

    looks good for BB or save for later?

    1. Gamst - Up (?) the Rovers
      • 15 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Areola isn't getting better than SOU. Konate vs lei as well. I'd say go for it.

  19. King Sheep
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    does Khusanov get any minutes?

  20. FDMS All Starz
    • 10 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Thoughts on this FH team? Bowen/Diaz to replace anyone?

    Raya
    Saliba Gvardiol Bradley
    Salah Rashford Rogers KDB Saka
    Mateta Marmoush

    Areola Kilman Munoz Beto

  21. Gamst - Up (?) the Rovers
    • 15 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    BB GW33 or 35????

    Ederson out ruins the BB33 a little for me. The plan was FH34 and AM35-38.

    Team:
    Raya
    Munoz, Gvardiol, Saliba
    Salah, Asensio, Trossard, Eze
    Marmoush, Watkins, Mateta
    Bench Ederson, Livramento, Murphy, Cucurella.

    FH must be in GW34.
    So I can do AM 35-37 or 36-38.
    Thus BB will be 33, 35 or 38. (38 is probably the worst option due to reserves getting starts for teams "on the beach".)

    1. Gamst - Up (?) the Rovers
      • 15 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      1 FT btw

  22. Torres76
    • 15 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Buy which one?

    1. Trossard
    2. Moreno

    Thanks

    1. AC/DC AFC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      2.

    2. Gamst - Up (?) the Rovers
      • 15 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Do you mean Mikel Merino or one of the two Morenos in the game?

      1. Torres76
        • 15 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Ha ha the Arsenal one..

  23. Torres76
    • 15 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Buy which one?

    1. Saka
    2. De Bruyne

    Thanks

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      1

    2. FantasyClub
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      2. Nostalgia for me

  24. AC/DC AFC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Any team news to be aware of?

    Thanks and good luck

  25. JBG
    • 7 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Thoughts on this FH?

    Raya
    VVD-Munoz-Gvardiol
    Saka-Salah-KDB-Merino-Rogers
    Fullkrug-Marmoush(C)

    Bench: not important

  26. FantasyClub
    • 4 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Is EZE worth a hit out to anyone?
    Money no object…just really put off

  27. Fat Frank
    • 8 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Foden is starting isn’t he

    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Would surprise me

  28. PascalCygan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Trippier to Maatsen crazy?

    Already have Konsa. 1FT on BB

  29. fplking14
    • 10 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Rogers, Bowen or Mbuemo for Murphy. I am on FH34

  30. HD7
    • 8 Years
    7 months, 21 days ago

    Who is your captain Saka Marmoush or Salah?

    1. Drexl Spivey
      • 7 Years
      7 months, 21 days ago

      Marmoush (c) Salah (vc)

      1. HD7
        • 8 Years
        7 months, 21 days ago

        Do you have Saka?

        1. Drexl Spivey
          • 7 Years
          7 months, 21 days ago

          Nah.