Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts a Free Hit special of his Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Q&A.
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With a large chunk of the FPL community activating their Free Hit chip this week, this week’s Q&A will focus primarily on players to pick for Gameweek 34.
Q: Which Newcastle United trio should you pick on a Free Hit?
(via AJAX HAMSTERDAM)
A: Newcastle have scored 35 goals at home this season, with only Manchester City (39) more prolific on home turf. Ipswich Town are 18th for shots in the box conceded (378), so the fixture is one you want to double up on in attack.
The Tractor Boys are also the third-lowest scorers (33) in the division, so defensive investment is also warranted in their opposition.
Alexander Isak (£9.6m) is an obvious inclusion, so let’s move on to other positions.
MIDFIELDERS
No midfielder has had more shots in the box (18) than Harvey Barnes (£6.0m) over the last six Gameweeks, while only Mohamed Salah (£13.8m, nine) and Marcus Rashford (£6.7m, six) have racked up more big chances than his five. With four goals and four assists, he has been the Magpies’ standout player over the aforementioned period, but it is obviously pertinent to mention that these were largely in games without Antony Gordon (£7.4m) available, which boosted his minutes significantly.
With the England international on the bench for the last two games, and Newcastle losing 4-1, it is anybody’s guess which two of the trio of Jacob Murphy (£5.2m), Barnes and Gordon start against the Tractor Boys. Murphy has started every game for the Magpies since Gameweek 14 and has averaged 6.5 FPL points per match over that period. Early substitutes are the norm but given what he offers defensively on the right wing, I think he is probably the most secure starter. Even then, a substitution around the 60th minute is likely.
Gordon is not the kind of player who will be content to warm the bench for an extended period – and the loss to Aston Villa could be the perfect excuse to bring him back into the team. However, given the electric form of Barnes, I think he is potentially undroppable for Newcastle at the moment.
So of the trio, I think Gordon is a no-go, Murphy is the one most secure for minutes, and Barnes is the high-ceiling pick. Take your pick depending on your rank goals and risk appetite.
It’s worth mentioning that Barnes wasn’t seen in training ground images in midweek but it may be that the club photographer was merely being selective with the snaps! One to listen out for in Jason Tindall’s presser.
DEFENDERS
In defence, Kieran Trippier (£5.6m) is taking a large chunk of their set pieces and has created 10 chances over the last six Gameweeks. Only Rayan Ait-Nouri (£5.0m, 12) and Pedro Porro (£5.3m, 13) fare better. However, it is worth mentioning that not a single one of these attempted assists was classified as a ‘big chance’ created by Opta. He is relying primarily on set pieces for his creativity.
On the opposite side, Tino Livramento (£4.6m) has attempted nine assists and crafted two ‘big chances’. He’s the one getting more forward in open play and in a game where Newcastle are likely to dominate the ball, I think he would be my defensive pick.
Fabian Schar (£5.5m) is obviously popular with two goals and seven shots over the same period but I just back open-play threat more than set pieces. Schar was also taken off as a precaution because of hamstring discomfort last weekend, and hasn’t been sighted in training this week.
Nick Pope (£4.9m) is a decent option, as well. Defensive spots are precious this week and with some uncertainty about the Wolverhampton Wanderers starting goalkeeper, he is an easy go-to if needed.
Q: Thoughts on Trent Alexander-Arnold as a pick? Risky with Conor Bradley playing well or will he be straight back into the starting XI?
(via SUN JIHAI)
A: No defender has taken more shots (39) than Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.2m) this season, while he trails only Leif Davis (£4.2m) and Porro (54 each) for attempted assists (51). He is also joint-top for big chances created (13).
It’s quite clear from the underlying numbers that Alexander-Arnold is the highest ceiling defensive asset in the game, capable of a haul in any fixture. The question really is: do we think he starts?
Arsenal’s midweek result means that Liverpool need only a draw to seal the title this weekend. I think Arne Slot will go with his strongest, most experienced team and put his faith in the players who have played a big role in the Reds’ march to the title.
Trent showed no signs of rustiness and there were occasions when Conor Bradley (£4.7m) looked defensively suspect against the Foxes. Given the magnitude of the occasion, I think Slot will risk Trent from the start. This, of course, is dependent on what we hear from Slot in the press conference tomorrow.
I think he’s a great pick but there are also other very good defenders with attacking potential this week. Despite having a firm focus on the UEFA Europa League, Tottenham Hotspur are capable of scoring (and conceding) against anybody. So, if you want to look elsewhere given the minutes risk and better clean sheet odds, that’s understandable too.
Q: Which players would be the core of a Gameweek 34 Free Hit?
(via @FplDanilo)
A: I think amongst the forwards, Matheus Cunha (£6.9m) and Isak are locks given they’re on penalties and at home against two promoted sides. The third forward spot could also be a fifth midfielder; I think there is room for variability there.
In midfield, Salah has been extremely unlucky not to get more points recently. He is still top for big chances (nine) amongst midfielders over the last six Gameweeks.
I think the other three spots are open for debate: Luis Diaz (£7.5m), Cole Palmer (£10.6m), Barnes/Murphy, Jarrod Bowen (£7.5m), Bryan Mbeumo (£8.0m), Justin Kluivert (£6.0m) etc are all good picks but none I would say are absolutely ‘essential’ selections.
I think the only lock in defence would be Ait-Nouri, especially with uncertainty around Wolves’ goalkeeper.
Newcastle’s defence warrants investment, be it Schar/Trippier/Livramento/Pope.
Ryan Sessegnon’s (£4.1m) role on the wing as an ‘OOP’ defender has huge appeal as well, but there is some minutes risk there with Harry Wilson (£5.2m) and Adama Traore (£4.5m) lurking.
Chelsea and Liverpool defences also appeal with their home fixtures, and clear motivation to get points on the board. With Chelsea, Reece James (£4.8m) is the punty pick while Marc Cucurella (£5.4m) offers the goal threat.
Liverpool have the secure pick in Virgil van Dijk (£6.6m) with the risky one in Trent. It’s all about your rank goals and risk appetite at this stage of the season.
My own Free Hit draft will follow this article, so you can see which of the above names I’m favouring in Gameweek 34.
We also discussed the best Free Hit picks team by team and position-wise in this week’s episode of The FPL Wire. You can check it out here.
