Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Q&A ahead of Gameweek 35. Here, topics include the best current forwards, which teams are ‘on the beach’ and should managers sell Bukayo Saka (£10.5m)?
Our writers are providing regular articles throughout the season, with only subscribers able to access every single one. You can still get 40% off a Premium Membership by signing up here. Once aboard, you’ve locked in the price of your Premium Membership for good, so long as you don’t cancel!
Q: With many having a front line of Alexander Isak (£9.6m), Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.7m) and Omar Marmoush (£7.6m), who do you see as the ideal front three for the remaining weeks? And which of this template three needs ditching first?
(via THE-RED-1)
A: No forward has been afforded more big chances than Isak (nine) over the last six Gameweeks and, with the Magpies ranked second for non-penalty expected goals (NPxP, 11.31) over that period, alongside Champions League motivation thrown in, there’s absolutely no reason to sell him. He would still make my Gameweek 35 Wildcard squad if I had one.
The other two are up for debate. Crystal Palace have their eyes firmly on the FA Cup final, so we could see Mateta’s minutes get managed over the next two Gameweeks. But I think the Eagles will want to maintain some league momentum beforehand.
There’s nothing wrong with holding Mateta for now, especially as he faces Tottenham Hotspur in Gameweek 36, fresh from a Europa League semi-final second leg.
Over at Manchester City, pictures show Erling Haaland (£14.8m) back in first-team training. While that doesn’t necessarily mean a Gameweek 35 start, it could cloud Marmoush’s future minutes.
However, there is an argument that the Egyptian remains part of their strongest XI and will start alongside Haaland. Although that still remains to be seen, with Kevin De Bruyne (£9.4m) back in the picture in a new system. Also in the hunt for Champions League qualification, motivation is high and their fixtures are excellent, so Marmoush isn’t a must sell – especially with Southampton in Gameweek 36.
Are there two better forwards to replace them? I can think of one at least – Ollie Watkins (£8.9m). With Marcus Rashford (£6.7m) likely out for the season, starts are now secure for him and I think he’ll have a point to prove. Villa are fourth for NPxG (10.27) over the last six Gameweeks and now have sole focus on a top-five finish. If picking today, I’d certainly have Watkins over Mateta.
Yoane Wissa (£6.6m) is obviously another one. Great fixtures for Brentford, with possible European motivations too, depending on how tonight’s result against Nottingham Forest goes. You could pick him over Marmoush but I would be tempted by the latter’s trip to Southampton.
It’s close though, with Wissa also against a relegated team that weekend – Ipswich Town – and facing a rotated Manchester United in Gameweek 35. While Matheus Cunha (£7.0m) is also a great pick, it feels like Wolverhampton Wanderers’ best fixture run is behind them.
Therefore, my Wildcard front three would be Isak, Watkins and Wissa, in that order.
Q: Do you think some are overplaying the ‘beach factor’ (motivation) in the final Gameweeks? It’s never mentioned that every league position has financial incentives for clubs.
It’s not so much a factor for Tottenham Hotspur and Man United, as qualifying for the Champions League via Europa League success trumps the gaining of a few league places. But there are other incentives out there. Everton have their last match at Goodison Park, while Southampton are trying to avoid being the worst-ever Premier League team. Also, some players are out of contract in the summer.
(via JIMMY B)
A: This is a good point. We often take a simplistic view and label teams as ‘on the beach’ but these are professional clubs with financial incentives to finish as high as possible. Yet while I’m not saying they are unmotivated, I think some clubs are even more motivated, with Champions League nights being the stuff of childhood dreams for many players.
I don’t think many are currently visiting the coast – those up to 11th place can still qualify for Europe. But the five teams I think we can target are the relegated trio, plus a distracted Spurs and Man United.
There is merit in investing in those battling for the Champions League, in particular, as getting results will be paramount. Rotation and experimentation will be minimal.
Q: Is Mohamed Salah (£13.8m) essential for the final Gameweeks?
(via @BakchodFpl)
A: Scout have done an excellent article on Arne Slot’s previous title win at Feyenoord and, going off that, it looks like the Dutchman will want to keep the winning habit going for his newly crowned champions.
For example, he gave his Golden Boot chaser 90 minutes at Feyenoord. Salah is saying that he wants to break records, so I think he remains an excellent pick for the final four Gameweeks.
You can make the argument that he’s not the standout captain in any of the remaining four Gameweeks, but Salah is still capable of hauls. Moreover, I’m not seeing too many great options to replace him. You can still afford a midfield of him, De Bruyne, Bryan Mbeumo (£8.1m) and Jarrod Bowen (£7.6m) with money to spare. Perhaps this becomes more of a question if Haaland comes out firing after his injury.
Q: Is it worth buying De Bruyne now, given there’s possible rotation and only four games left? It’d be for a hit, selling Saka.
Q: If you can only afford one of Mbeumo or Bowen, which would you get?
(via @Gadlabethithizh and @Coleye1977)
A: Saka replacements are this week’s big talking point but let’s first discuss whether it’s wise to sell Arsenal’s talisman.
Gameweek 35 is probably the biggest hurdle for Saka owners, as we assume a bench appearance at most. The Gunners will likely heavily rotate versus Bournemouth, as it’s between their two Paris Saint-Germain legs.
But if they do indeed get eliminated from the Champions League, as the bookies suggest (not me), then Saka likely plays at Anfield in Gameweek 36. I’d maybe want to bench him then anyway, with most of us having strong squads.
After that, the Gameweek 37 and 38 outings are unlikely to be minutes concerns. We’d likely want Saka versus Southampton during the final day’s standout fixture and, with just four free transfers remaining, it seems wasteful to sell him and re-buy.
That’s why I think there is a case to be made for temporarily benching Saka to play someone like Morgan Rogers (£5.7m), if your squad allows it. Of course, there is the opportunity cost, giving up a good midfielder for the next four like Mbeumo, Bowen or De Bruyne.
Ditching Saka for Mbeumo also frees up significant cash, which can upgrade Mateta to Watkins.
I think if you’re not planning to immediately captain your Saka replacement, the case to bench him becomes stronger. Let’s look at the pros and cons of his leading replacements.
Bryan Mbeumo
A minutes monster on set pieces and penalties, with great upcoming fixtures. There’s no reason not to buy Mbeumo. He’d be my top pick, although I’m still a bit hesitant about handing him the armband. As bad as Man United have been – and they’ll likely rotate – these opponents still sit fourth for non-penalty expected goals conceded (NPxGC, 4.96) over the last six Gameweeks.
Jarrod Bowen
With the European-focused duo of Spurs and Man United up next, shortly followed by Ipswich on the final day, Bowen’s fixtures are outstanding. He has multiple routes to points but the Hammers aren’t exactly purring under Graham Potter.
The Irons are 13th for NPxG (6.55) over the last half-dozen, that’s roughly one per game. Bowen is still a great pick though and, with a lower ownership than Mbeumo, he’s one for the chasers.
Kevin De Bruyne
The Belgian looks to be back in Man City’s first XI, although his omission from the FA Cup semi-final lineup has certainly raised some eyebrows.
What boosts his prospects is that their fixtures look excellent and Pep Guardiola’s side are beginning to look much better in attack. Only Newcastle United (11.31) and Liverpool (12.14) have a better recent NPxG than their 10.85.
I trust their attack and motivation more than those of Brentford and West Ham, but there is no denying that Mbeumo and Bowen are more talismanic. All three are great picks and decent Gameweek 35 captains.
There’s not much to split them, in my opinion. If you’re comfortable with your rank, go for Mbeumo. The other two are better picks if you’re chasing, with lower effective ownerships. All three have appealing Gameweek 36 armband credentials.
We discuss these topics and more in this week’s episode of The FPL Wire.
