Fantasy Football Scout community writer Greyhead analyses the Gameweek 22 transfers and strategies of some well-known Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers.
‘The Great and The Good’ this season are the FPL Godfather Mark Sutherns, the BlackBox pair of Az and Andy North, Scouts FPL General, Joe and Tom, the FPL Wire trio of Pras, Lateriser and Zophar, FPL celebrities FPL Harry, Martin Baker, Pingreen, FPL Frasier and Luke Williams, Hall of Famers Ben Crellin, Fabio Borges and Tom Dollimore, and last year’s mini-league winner Huss E.
“Hello darkness, my old friend.”
Points? What points? It was a weekend with very little to shout about. Prior to it, there was much excitement about the possibility of owning a Manchester City five-a-side team, now that Antoine Semenyo (£7.6m) and Marc Guehi (£5.3m) have joined.
Across town, Manchester United have gone full Wheel of Fortune by appointing Michael Carrick and hoping muscle memory counts as a strategy. And so far, so good. Maybe Spurs are wondering if Gazza might be a better option than the current incumbent, Thomas Frank.
Despite Pep’s insistence that Erling Haaland (£15.1m) is “exhausted”, we all still captained him. Although those who instead gambled on Liverpool were left cursing Hugo Ekitike‘s (£8.9m) far-from-electric form.
OVERALL PERFORMANCE
Gameweek 22 was one of those weeks for The Great and the Good. Points were scarce, premiums went missing; it was a survival exercise rather than a feast.
Standing tallest amongst the dwarves was FPL General, who somehow emerged with a Gameweek-winning 58 points. He rolled the dice by placing his armband on Florian Wirtz (£8.3m) and, for once, was king of the captaincy. And if that wasn’t enough, he combined this with double Arsenal and double Newcastle United clean sheets.
Elsewhere, Tom Dollimore continued his quiet march up the rankings, moving into second place thanks to a triple Arsenal backline. His early move for Bruno Fernandes (£9.2m) also paid off, proving that sometimes the early bird really does get the worm (or the points).
That rise came at the expense of FPL Harry, who left 33 points on the bench. Not that he was not the only one to suffer, as Mark Sutherns (25) and Pingreen (28) were enjoying cat calls from the sidelines.
Also escaping the carnage was Tom Freeman, climbing 270,000 places. His unlikely saviour was goalkeeper Matz Sels (£4.6m) against Arsenal, proving that Gameweek 22 was simply that kind of week.
TRANSFERS
This lot went full hivemind this week, with Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.8m) and Enzo Fernandez (£6.5m) leading the transfer charts, as managers collectively agreed on ‘sensible, boring, probably correct.’
Meanwhile, Matheus Cunha (£8.0m) was the most sold, and his sellers were treated to the full, premium FPL experience. Smugness when he was benched, then despair when he came and assisted. Thankfully, a second one was ruled out at the end. See, VAR isn’t all bad.
With the Bruno bandwagon warming up, expect Phil Foden (£8.6m) and Bukayo Saka (£10.1m) to start checking Rightmove listings, as they look the most likely to be sacrificed for funding the inevitable.
‘THE GREAT AND THE GOOD’ TEMPLATE
The template flinched a little for Gameweek 22. At the back, Gabriel continues his role as set-and-forget Arsenal coverage, and the big change saw Patrick Dorgu (£4.3m) slide in for the suspended Michael Keane (£4.7m). Sadly, quite a few benched the Dane.
Further up, the biggest shift was this big Cunha exodus. Previously owned by all, he was ruthlessly escorted out, with managers using the freed-up funds to squeeze in Enzo and Morgan Rogers (£7.7m).
As of now, Foden is a full-house pick. Will anyone dare sell him before hosting Wolverhampton Wanderers?
Dubravka (94.4%), Raya (44.4%)
Gabriel (88.9%), Timber (55.6%), Andersen (44.4%), O’Reilly (38.9%), Dorgu (33.3%)
Foden (100.0%), Saka (77.8%), Rogers (33.3%), Enzo (33.3%), Szoboszlai (27.8%)
Haaland (94.4%), Ekitike (72.2%), Thiago (50.0%)
BAD LUCK?
This season is another reminder that expected points are just that: expected, not guaranteed.
According to the giant algorithm in the sky, Luke Williams would be top if all things had remained equal. Below, a table shows the model’s predicted points versus actual ones (up to Gameweek 21).
A few managers are beating the spreadsheet into submission. Huss (+57), FPL Harry (+38) and Tom Dollimore (+37) are somehow finding points, hidden in a place where no xG model can see them. Perhaps there is some skill in this game, after all.
However, others were fed directly into the variance blender. Az (-82), Pingreen (-80) and Pras (-75) are doing everything right according to the supercomputer, but are being rewarded with very little.
Still, I’m sure they will trust the models once again next week. Because this time they’ll work, right?
CONCLUSION
Look, it was a rubbish weekend and, naturally, fading fortunes have sparked serious Wildcard discourse, particularly with the Double Gameweek rumours.
Managers are staring into the abyss and debating whether Gameweek 24 or 32 is the least-worst time to press the big red button. This looks set to be the next fork in the road. To gamble or not to gamble, that is the question.
Anyway, that’s all from me for now, and remember: don’t have FPL nightmares.
For those affected by any of the topics raised above, you can find me here on Twitter or BlueSky.
