The Burning Question – Who Joins Costa in the Essential Stakes?

With nine goals in seven appearances, Diego Costa has wasted no time announcing himself as a major player across the Fantasy games this season. The Chelsea striker leads the way in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game with a total of 54 points, and despite a hefty 66.8% ownership, has continued to earn plenty of transfers in over the international break.

Scoring in all but one of his Premier League outings to date – away to champions City – Costa’s consistency not only makes him an obvious contender for most three-man frontlines, it lessens the hassle of armband selection, as evidenced by our Captain Poll in any given Gameweek.

As the season unfolds, though, there are a number of players stepping up in terms of consistency. Arguably, there are more options than ever this term, with alternatives across the price brackets and classifications affording Fantasy managers a variety of tactical approaches.

With this in mind, we ask the Burning Question – Who Joins Costa in the Essential Stakes?

Applebonkers says…
I’d personally change the question to who joins Gylfi Sigurdsson in the essential stakes. Given his starting price – and even current cost – his propensity to hit double figures is impossible to ignore. He’s also somewhat proven after we saw him do the same in his previous spell at Swansea. This is what separates him from the equally impressive Nacer Chadli right now – that extra level of familiarity and trust.

Costa looks a perfect fit at Chelsea, too. The fear with him, though, is that the best is gone. To put it bluntly he won’t be scoring 49 goals this season. We’ve seen even the best peter out at 30. So if you estimate there’s a maximum of 21 goals left in him, he’ll need to start popping out some top-up assists to reach essential status. I do think he has them in his locker but we need to see them still.

The third name which has to be mentioned is Angel di Maria. His intensity is something I’ve only ever seen with Luis Suarez, and to a lesser extent, Carlos Tevez. These players force things to happen and fortune does tend to follow them, too. They are the equivalent of whacking a pool shot so hard that even if you miss you’ve got a chance of going round the table and finding another pocket. If Di Maria continues to get five points for his good shots and three points for his bad shots, then he will be essential. That extreme level of fortune so far, coupled with only seeing him in great fixtures (including Everton, given the perfect absence of James McCarthy and Seamus Coleman) is why I’d be reluctant to label him essential just yet.

Jonty says…
There’s no doubting Diego Costa’s essential status. With an ownership of 66.8% in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game thanks to nine goals in seven appearances, he is the default captain choice. Indeed, even those owners who don’t hand him the armband him face a slide down the rankings on weeks where he runs riot.

It is for this same reason I believe Angel di Maria is also now essential. His ownership was 37.2% earlier this week but is set to rise substantially during the international break, with over 110,000 new owners drafting him in already. Given that in just five appearances he racked up 43 points, which equates to 8.6 points per game, those without him need an equivalent player just to keep up. Apart from Costa, that player simply does not yet exist. I had hoped David Silva would be a good differential for me to keep pace but didn’t work out, so I have already made the swap for Di Maria. The key factor was realising my ranking movements were heavily influenced by the performance of the Argentine, so great is his ownership.

For those looking to get into the top 10,000, his essential status is further cemented. Among this elite group, 79.6% went into Gameweek 7 with the talented Manchester United midfielder. In that week he racked up 13 points, a third double-digit score of his fledgling Premier League career, leaving a fifth of the top managers facing a rankings slide.

There is a slight caveat around immediate investment. He faces Chelsea and Manchester City over the next three but looks more than capable of bringing in points over the rest of his short-term fixture list. A final thought on Di Maria. His FPL price has risen by 0.6 over the last five Gameweeks in a climate of stagnant price growth. Can Fantasy managers really afford to wait to draft in this essential player?

d1sable says…
Although Costa has been fantastic, I would argue that even he isn’t essential and I will use my FPL team to show that. I don’t own the Spaniard – this isn’t something I have consciously tried to do (I had him at the start) – it’s simply that I got bored of everyone having the same team. It’s a bit of a luxury of mine to be able to play around more than your average FPL player as my main game, as you probably know, is the Sky Game. Sure I’m not having a great season by any means currently festering at 117,534 overall but I think that’s largely down to a terrible and slightly unlucky start and the sea of two-pointers that have greeted me ever since from every player bar my Captain, and herein lies my proof.

With nearly everyone owning Costa (and most captaining him) I have managed to match his scores so far:

Costa has delivered: 6,6,12,17,1,6,6 = 54 Total
My chosen captain (Costa once, returning 6) has produced: 7,6,2,13,8,9,13 = 58 Total

Sure it would’ve been nice to have Costa’s points as well as my “differential” captain but, as you can see, it’s possible to make do without him as long as you nail the captain choice. How long will this be the case? Yeah, that’s the concern.

7shadesofsmoke says…
Luis Suarez set the benchmark for ‘essential’ very high last season, and while Diego Costa leads the way this term, I’d be hesitant to hand the Chelsea hit-man top billing just yet. Costa has yet to earn an assist, has picked up three yellow cards in seven appearances, and for all of his prolificacy he’s picked up a single bonus point from four matches in which he has scored fewer than two goals.

Meanwhile, Sergio Aguero, whose minutes have been restricted, has picked up six bonus points without breaking stride and has a single yellow card to his name meaning that, in terms of points per minute, there isn’t much between the two. With fixtures turning in favour of City, and fitness and form finding their way to Aguero, Diego Costa may find the little Argentine a serious threat to the crown.

Of course, Aguero is not the only Argentine making a case. Angel di Maria has been quickly establishing himself as an FPL force. The United midfielder boasts the highest points per game (8.6) – comfortably eclipsing even Costa (7.7). His direct, high-risk approach to the game, coupled with the quality of United’s predatory forwards has seen him pick up double-figure hauls in three of his five appearances (Costa has two from seven). Some will argue Lady Luck’s involvement but she has shown to be a loyal mistress in the past. Frank Lampard, master of the deflected goal, famously wooed her into a long-term relationship using a similar approach and it seems that Di Maria is on the right path to doing the same, earning her favour with a ‘shoot on sight, cross in range’ philosophy. However, with fixtures tightening up for United, the real tests of their flourishing relationship are still to come.

Mark says…
For me, the status of “essential” is gained via a number of factors – it’s not necessarily down to pure points output but also the options available elsewhere. While Costa has clearly been the stand-out option up front to this point, this may not be the case in the coming months.

Costa’s nine goals thus far have arrived at a time when Sergio Aguero has been battling back to full fitness, along with Daniel Sturridge, while Radamel Falcao has been bedding in at Old Trafford. All three will be options in the coming months and, suddenly, that could even have us questioning Costa’s selection – particularly if Eden Hazard begins to flourish as an explosive differential.

I’d hesitate to throw the label at any other player right now. While Angel di Maria’s scoring hints that he could edge towards such a status, I still believe there are just too many options available in this area to settle on the United man. Crucially, we’ve seen several mid-price assets perform, which has enabled us to consider keeping big funds out of midfield – this has meant that we can restrict our allocation of heavy-hitters to maybe one or two targets. I’ve certainly settled on that tactic, liberating funds for defensive purchases and settling on Raheem Sterling’s goal power for my heavy-hitter.

I believe that we’ll see both Branislav Ivanovic and Leighton Baines continue to pick up ownership and become key figures. These two players are important because we’re not seeing consistent clean sheets, either from the bigger teams or in the budget market. While last season we could settle on cheap defences, then, this term there appears to be some traction in acquiring Ivanovic and Baines for their attacking output. Both appear to be playing as wingers in home matches, and while we scratch around for clean sheets, their goals and assists warrant the outlay and, for me, make it less essential that we spend big in midfield.

Tom F says…
Essential is such a loaded word in Fantasy Football terms, it gets used far too often in relation to players who should only ever be considered as transitory options, in a game that depends on how a squad of players is managed over a long season.

There are usually maybe one, or at a push, two players who are ‘essential’ in the traditional sense at any given time. A mixture of form, value, ownership and, most importantly, consistency combine to establish those players who will usually leave you trailing behind the masses if you choose to overlook them.

Costa is the only player who has been almost unanimously labelled ‘essential’ so far this season, though there are one or two candidates that could reach the same level. Rather than speculate on whether Di Maria, Aguero or perhaps even Daniel Sturridge or Radamel Falcao will become ‘essential’ I think it’s more useful to look further at what makes players attract this nomenclature.

Firstly a player must be on form for a prolonged period to become or be essential, a rare thing, particularly as even the best players have difficult fixtures or off days. Consistency here is key, points per game over an extended period is the best indicator of this but then only in relation to value. In FPL, with a finite budget available, if expending a large amount on a player, they need to fit the form/ consistency distinction but also offer value.

Value, an integral aspect to the squad building/maintenance theory as opposed to picking whoever you feel will do well each week. Gylfi Sigurdsson perhaps presents the best example this season – he offers significant value and is therefore perhaps as much as an essential player as the consistent Costa. Furthermore, he illustrates how form is influential as witnessed by the Icelanders recent barren spell, over which period he was clearly not essential. If examined over a longer run however his points per game (PPG) could push it the other way, on the basis that transfers were likely better spent elsewhere and his value is that he provided an effective amount of returns possible for that period. An essential for some squads, for the longer period, but not necessarily essential in every team when a transfer could be used on an effective differential in the short-term.

Another topic much discussed this week is how ownership comes into play, whether it should affect transfer decisions. This is perhaps where the word ‘essential’ in understanding FPL becomes compelling along with the other favourite ‘cover’. Players are ostensibly even less of an ‘essential’ option when, for example, all you need is to cover an area of their team. The Southampton and Chelsea defences spring to mind – Clyne and Bertrand have ownerships of 26.2% and 12.1% respectively, throw in Fonte and Forster and, although there will be some overlap for double-ups, that is 53.1% of managers who own a Southampton defender. That’s around the same as Fabregas and Sterling. Is a Southampton defender really essential, though?

I can’t pretend to be as knowledgeable of statistics as some discussing the subject of ownership but my anecdotal view from last season was that having players that everyone else had, or at least covering most of the high ownership targets, was a way of maintaining that position. This made some players “essential” or at least useful for retaining rank. If everyone is drawn to the same seven or eight players than it becomes a game with fewer options. This obviously helps those teams already doing well, making it far more difficult for trailing Fantasy managers to close the gap.

I agree with the statement ‘pick the players that will get the most points’ but I find that it slightly misses the point. The same players cannot necessarily be the ones getting the most points for every team. You can’t have the best players every week and take endless hits, we have to choose when and who to transfer in/out. Teams therefore should develop over time and one player that is essential for one team, may not work in another as they may end up being in that team for longer or unbalance the whole.

Essentially, it all comes down to your own squad and in many cases a player can be an essential cog in that machine. It is however a nonsense to suggest a player is ‘essential’ in overarching terms for everyone playing the game. With the proviso that once in the top 1k to 10k, going without some players can be risky. Are there any players that challenge Costa as essential? Right now, probably not, in a few weeks it could be any of Aguero, Falcao, Sturridge, Di Maria etc but only if they fit into your team and strategy as well.

Andy says…
Essential is myth perpetrated by the insecure. Essential is the lies your parents tell you to help you sleep at night. Essential is a complete fallacy.

Essential is a word that Fantasy Managers hide behind to mask what it really means: safety. Dull, dull, dull safety. Despite the question, Diego Costa shouldn’t even be considered essential. He’s just a mighty fine player doing a mighty fine job. Bravo.

Does having him in your Fantasy team make a great deal of sense? It certainly seems to be the case. He’s scoring goals, he’s owned by a huge percentile of fellow managers and he’s the main striker for the title favourites. Do you have to have him, or any other player, in your Fantasy team to succeed? Of course not.

As weeks roll by it’s far easy to own a player like Costa (and Luis Suarez and Robin Van Persie and Cristiano Ronaldo in years gone by) and just forget about the choice -or lack of choice- you make in doing so, but it is far from a pre-requisite. You’ll sleep easier, parents lies or not. You’ll have fewer grey hairs at the end of the season. Odds are that you’ll probably score more points but they’re not insurmountable. But you know that you’ll also go against your gut in doing so.

I’m steadfast in the belief that no player should be considered a must have. There is such a wide variety of options, so many balances and measures that go with building a Fantasy squad, that any apparent loss of a so-called “essential” player can be made up for with some astute acquisitions in other positions and a dash of good fortune.

Buying a Diego Costa is safe and easy, but taking a chance on [player x] is ultimately so much more rewarding. I know, I’ve done it and lived to tell the tell. Some times you just have to fly closer to the sun to really take in your surroundings.

Angel di Maria is not essential. Sergio Aguero is not essential. Gylfi Sigurdsson is not essential. David Nugent is not essential.

Essential is a fantasy.

Paul says…
It all comes down to how your approach. Last year, for example, Yaya Toure would have been deemed essential to your Fantasy prospects, yet if you delved into the underlying data, the numbers suggested his 20-goal output was a fluke – even this week, the City midfielder (as we mentioned in this week’s Say What) admitted he was more than lucky to hit the back of the net with such regularity.

I didn’t own Toure once in 2013/14 and I’d do exactly the same again if a player’s underlying stats were similarly underwhelming. Some may call that naïve but it’s simply a reflection of how I personally like to play the FPL game, how I enjoy it. Bringing in Toure last year would, to me, be the equivalent of the ending of George Orwell’s Big Brother (spoiler alert), the Winston Smith moment where I finally succumbed.

To have owned Toure last year would, to be frank, have bored me. It would have gone against how I play the game. And given that I invest a great deal of time on this game, that’s not something that sat well with me. If that comes at the detriment to my overall rank – like it did last year – then so be it. I don’t want the bland, easy option, I’d much rather look for an angle that challenges me and keeps it interesting over a 38-Gameweek campaign.

That’s why Luis Suarez was Fantasy gold for the last two seasons – his returns mirrored what we saw on the pitch and were backed up by the data. You can say the same for Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale before they left for La Liga – there was no question they deserved their monster hauls.

There are players I currently own –Branislav Ivanovic, Raheem Sterling and Diego Costa – that, injuries aside, are going nowhere as their stats are so strong within their respective classifications. Angel di Maria is possibly in my XI for the long-term, too, though given that three of his five appearances were against promoted sides, it’s too early to say. Theo Walcott is another player whose stats, returns and performances on the pitch sit well with how I play this game- when fit, I’ll be bringing him in for sure.

To classify them, or, indeed, any player as essential, though, would be to limit my choices, to restrict my tactical approach. It would be tedious. What would be the point in that?