The objective of this exercise is to predict the attacking potential per team and their key player in the next six fixtures. The idea comes from a previous article submitted by Footballoholic called “Best chance of goals over the next six”, which looked at the goals conceded by each team’s next six opponents. This article will use this research and combine it with the goalscoring form of each team.
Attacking Potential Explained
MyΒ calculations are based on the average goals scored (GS)Β home and away in the past six matches as well as the average goals conceded, once again differentiated for home and away. I’ve then combined these to find an attacking potential rating over the next six matches. In addition I’ve looked at the key players for each side, based on their goal involvement.
Results
Teams’ attacking potential over the next six
MCIΒ Β Β Β Β Β 11.6
SOTΒ Β Β Β 11.1
LIVΒ Β Β Β Β Β 10.4
WBAΒ Β Β Β Β 9.8
NEWΒ Β Β Β Β 9.5
CHEΒ Β Β Β Β 9.1
STOΒ Β Β Β Β 8.9
SWAΒ Β Β Β 7.9
QPRΒ Β Β Β 7.8
WHMΒ Β Β 7.7
TOTΒ Β Β Β Β 7.6
EVEΒ Β Β Β Β 7.4
ARSΒ Β Β Β Β 7.1
MUNΒ Β Β Β 7.1
SUNΒ Β Β Β 6.2
CPLΒ Β Β Β Β 6.1
BURΒ Β Β Β 4.8
LEIΒ Β Β Β Β Β 4.7
HULΒ Β Β Β 3.8
AVLΒ Β Β 1.2
25 best players for attacking potential (Player/ % involvement in their team’s goals / attacking potential)
Sergio AgΓΌeroΒ 55% 6.3
Raheem SterlingΒ 54% 5.6
Saido BerahinoΒ 54% 5.3
Graziano Pellè 43% 4.8
Gylfi SigurdssonΒ 53% 4.2
Dusan TadicΒ 35% 3.8
Nacir ChadliΒ 50% 3.8
Alexis SΓ‘nchezΒ 53% 3.8
Victor MosesΒ 42% 3.7
Charlie AustinΒ 47% 3.7
Angel Di MarΓaΒ 47% 3.3
Leighton BainesΒ 44% 3.3
Diego CostaΒ 36% 3.2
Cesc FΓ‘bregasΒ 36% 3.2
Jordan HendersonΒ 31% 3.2
Chris BruntΒ 31% 3.0
Mame Biram DioufΒ 33% 3.0
Diafra SakhoΒ 37% 2.8
Jamie VardyΒ 60% 2.8
Papiss Cissé 29% 2.8
Steven FletcherΒ 42% 2.6
Stewart DowningΒ 32% 2.4
Leonardo UlloaΒ 50% 2.3
Wilfried BonyΒ 29% 2.3
Erik LamelaΒ 29% 2.2
Conclusions
Liverpool’s Sterling has been sold heavily in recent weeks. But this research suggests sellers are being too hasty. On the basis of opposition and attacking form Sterling is still set to be involved in around a goal a game over the next six games. Manchester City look the best bet for goals over the coming weeks, with Sergio Aguero the best option. The Argentine looks an ideal captain candidate for the foreseeable future.
As with Footballoholic’s research this analysis also suggests that Chelsea may not score as many goals as people believe. Costa and Fabregas are ranked low here in spite of good fixtures on paper. Instead, Southampton’s Pelle could emerge as a better source of points despite a dire run of fixtures.
